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alright some of you are hurting a little well actually to be honest you all seem to be in good spirits bullish still buying tesla every chance you get but either way i hope this video might still boost your confidence anyway i feel that i've reached my analysis of tesla enough to think i have a fairly good prediction of how i see the next few years unfolding i thought therefore i'm now ready to give my prediction for a 2025 tesla stock price estimate i've been waiting a long time to do this and i feel like i've gathered enough information to be able to make my prediction of the future of tesla now this is more of a valuation of tesla rather than the 2025 price target this is where i see the value of tesla at the end of 2025.
therefore i'm gonna try and calculate an estimate of tested earnings for the last quarter of 2025. once we've worked that out we'll then try and assign an appropriate p e ratio to give us a valuation i'll first explain how i will treat each side of the business and how i envision it about this time the energy side of the business is of course like the order side constrained by batteries any cells used in energy had an opportunity cost of being in a car and generating more profit energy is not going to take off until tesla have their own in-house lfp batteries in high enough production to meet a lot of their cars too energy isn't going to be noticed in the earnings for tesla until the second half of the decade really i mean basically we're trying to paint the most likely scenario and put a value on it here and when it comes to robo taxis then we need to decide even by 2025 if everything went to plan tesla might only have about a quarter million dedicated robot taxis so it still won't be huge the scenario i'm going to play though is fsd is 10 times safer than a human driver robo taxis will leave out for now but talk about more when it comes to the pe ratio we will raise fsd prices to 15 000 adjusted for inflation so this model will just be based on real prices all around not nominal and we have no idea what inflation might do due to the fact that fsd is actually working we will also increase the adoption rate i still can't see it being a massive earner relative to autos but we'll see i think of rubber taxis as more binary anyway either tesla gets them working and the stock price adds a zero or they don't there isn't much in between elon did say though dedicated robot taxi in volume production next year so for valuation purposes i'm just going to assign a market value of a typical tesla instead of a robot taxi what i'm saying is this is a valuation without robo taxis and i'm going to do my best to value it in that way otherwise like i'm trying to point out verbal taxes would just be about 80 of the value or something and we may as well just do a full rubber tax evaluation model i think the solar side of the business is still waiting for energy which is still winning for batteries which is still waiting for tesla's in-house lfp so i think anything solar produces will be inconsequential again compared to all those there may be working prototypes of bots at this stage but this area of the business is such an anomaly as it can somewhat reinvent economics itself i'm going to leave it out for my 2025 estimate now we should expect some more factories to be up and running by 2025.
we expect berlin shanghai and texas to have expanded and i think we could also expect two new locations by this stage too elon said 10 new factories over the next 10 years which he may have actually met by 2030 due to him also saying 20 million deliveries a year by then too but in tesla's recent impact report they are once again saying 20 million vehicles by 2030 a huge deal if true anyway i think we say two new factory locations is likely look tesla just built two huge factories within the space of one and a half years and another chinese fab starting soon we took him at three and a half years time surely berlin and texas each have one additional fab by then too i don't know if we can expect any new models to be in production in 2025 the only other one announced to be in production was the robo taxi i mean i'm including semi roadster and cyber track of course there may be some other new model out by then but it's not going to be a compact or budget ev so that we don't know i don't know you don't know simple as that so instead we'll just increase the production of the other models even if the supply ends up being higher than the actual demand if that is the case then there would be another model with similar profits and would thus unlikely affect the valuation of the company we're trying to work out evaluation of the company member not estimate when and what new model testers are launching and remember we aren't concerned about robot taxis all right so let's calculate how many types of model from each factory starting with fremont now given this is over three years time i think we reach a run rate of one million a year for fremont shanghai could be doing about two and a half million berlin could be doing two million texas two million two remember i'm including any necessary expansions in these locations then two new locations perhaps each at one million a year now remember these are not the numbers i am predicting for 2025.
these are the run rates i am estimating by the end of 2025. 2025 is a long time a year long even a lot can happen i'm just working out evaluation for the end of the year all right well that comes in at 9.5 million vehicles a year wow that's a lot of cars and bound to be a lot of profit but that almost sounds unbelievable well let's see just what it will take using elon's estimate of this year of one and a half million vehicle deliveries well it's actually only about 60 to 70 growth required to hit these figures that is in line with the growth we expect are there any other numbers you see that look too extreme to be honest i would hope texas possibly had almost twice as many vehicles closer to four million rather than two million we're talking three and a half more years of ramping and expansion three and a half years ago from today we only had one factory now we have four and this is exponential remember so we might expect more than four times as many factories in that three and a half years but no we're just gonna add fifty percent more factories tesla can only ramp up like this though if they are getting great results with the 4680 cell therefore in this scenario we will assume that the 4680 cell is going well all right well to be honest we're keeping this model relatively simple we could go into a lot of effort for energy and other products potentially but this is going to be pretty much evaluation on tesla's auto sales i've allocated a reasonable idea of how i see each model sell from each factory broken down and remember we're somewhat consolidating any new models that may have been launched i've used average prices from about where we have today and have guestimated the average price of the semi register and cyber truck for 2025 in today's prices this spreadsheet is also available to download in patreon if you want to play around with it and using your own figures all right when we add all those in we get almost two and a half million deliveries for the quarter wow seems like so many almost impossible yet toyota and volkswagen have managed these kind of numbers it's a thing it can happen except toyotas don't have an asp close to sixty thousand dollars and they don't have the same sort of profit margins as tesla so let's see what all this comes to total revenue of 137 billion dollars in auto sales and almost another 5 billion from fsd wow fsd still only adding that little in revenue that's still pretty decent but like i've been saying everything gets dwarfed by auto sales which is why it's not worth us going into too much detail on the other sides of the business anyway total revenue comes to 142 billion dollars we could add in regulatory credits but i think they'd be minimally felt at this stage now as for profit margin again i still see no threat from any competition that mean tesla need to reduce prices and thus reduce margin you might think that by this stage there will not be enough people to afford to spend this much on a car but this is not a car this is a 2025 tesla which would do a lot more than a 2022 tesla in other words i'm going to place margins at 38 and remember again that excludes regulatory credits leaving a gross auto profit of 54 billion dollars i've entered some figures i expect for energy and services i expect them to have grown from where they are today but my point is they won't have any major effect on profits when compared to auto sales so we don't need to go too deep in there let alone that actual profit when we do all these figures we end up with 42 billion dollars in earnings or 170 billion dollars annualized what p e ratio do we assign to this figure well it could be argued that it is entirely based on tesla's progress with verbal taxes as robot taxes will tower over auto revenue like auto revenue towers over energy revenue it is a bit of a mixed bag we have here so let's say a pe of around 30.
remember this is how the market values tesla not us the market will not be expecting too much more vehicle growth as they are already halfway to 20 million figure and will potentially still be dubious about robo taxis this is a valuation then of over five trillion dollars or a stock price of about five thousand dollars there you go my tesla 2025 price estimate without rubber taxis i'll do a rabbit taxi price target too as like i said there is little point doing it mixed in with auto sales revitax is a binary either they take off and add a zero to the stock price or they don't just a quick estimate but these vehicles come to a total sale supply of around 700 gigawatt hours a year does it really sound likely tesla will have that many batteries at their disposal well remember three and a half more years that's a lot of time to set up 46 any loans berlin and texas should be doing 200 hours a year each catr will likely be supplying tessa in the order of 250 gigawatt hours a year plus what panasonic and lg supplying by that stage along with some new tesla factories we should see with new battery factories all in all sounding certainly possible that tesla will have enough batteries for around 10 million cars a year by the end of 2025.
all right i think that is somewhat of an indication of what tesla stock price could be around the end of 2025 if they've not yet cracked rubber taxes i think 2025 is an important year it's enough time for tesla to really make up on these exponentials therefore i would appreciate all your feedback on how you see things going and how differently you might choose what i did remember this is meant to be my base case without rubber taxis but i think this can serve as a base and we can evolve on it we don't know what the future will bring but the more scenarios we run the closer we can encompass the range as to which it might unfold of course it just takes a black swan event to change everything anyway this is meant to be indicative if you want to scale it back and drop it down to about 6 million vehicles or about one third as many cars then the stock is still around three and a half thousand dollars also i can understand if you might find the asps a little bit high and they may be slightly lower in order to generate more demand this is still basically just the auto company valuation as i say robo taxis are a lottery ticket for the auto company alone appears to be capable of reaching a valuation in excess of five trillion dollars i would say like the energy can also reach that then of course bots another insane lottery special too really though tesla as an auto company alone appears to have quite a future
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