저자: TeslaEconomist · 외국인
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2022년 5월 기준 테슬라 주가는 중국 생산 회복에도 불구하고 Q2 실적 부진, 일론 머스크 주식 매도, 경기침체 우려로 약세. 4680 배터리 진전이 핵심 모멘텀이며 600달러 하회 가능성을 언급하나 저가 매수 기회로 봄. 본인은 옵션(LEAPS)으로 조금씩 저점 매수 중.
다듬은 글
[ this second quarter is still looking ugly well actually it's looking even uglier with all the inflation nonsense we're seeing tesla stock at prices we never again expected but that's the thing with tesla is it's always going to drop again until it goes through its next cycle and now i'm doing something about all these massive swings in the price and finally i'm trading through although i didn't get the bottom of this dip or is it even the bottom yet well let's talk about how much uglier things may get first of course we don't appear to yet be out of the woods in china either shanghai is really what is required to carry this company it carried the company last year and it's going to need to carry the company this year which makes it doubly hard if it's locked down or suffering supply chain issues we did hear how quickly shanghai were able to get back to 80 production level within about a week or two from the shutdowns in april with targets to hit 2600 vehicles a day by the 16th of may according to reuters now 2600 vehicles a day in china alone that's huge if it continued at that pace with no downtime and that's 950 000 a year look let's face it china is pretty much already at a millionaire run rate when their ducks are in a row it should be in excess of a million by the end of the year including downtime if we ever had an inkling that china was going to be that big and that soon back at the start of last year then tesla stock price would have likely surpassed a thousand dollars then the stock is the same price in december 2020 as it is at the time of this video and look how much has happened since the china expansion 4680 sales with structural batteries and front and rear castings two new massive state-of-the-art gigafactories fsd beta progress plaid the fastest production car on the planet even humanoid bots announced we also went from a pe ratio of 1 000 to under 100 yet the stock price reached a low nearly 300 less than its high at the start of last year almost a year and a half ago even the stock price was nearly 50 percent higher just to give you some perspective on top of the china issues we have also recently had elon selling off billions of dollars more of his tesla stock this has possibly brought the stock down a further 100 or something and it will take a little while to recover so with elon selling china 4680 delays war oil prices supply chains inflation interest rates recession etc to be honest i think tesla's stock price is holding up reasonably well we're being hit from all sides but within a year or two all of these issues should have hopefully gone away it's times like these when you need to get a grip and face reality to gain perspective go through all your mantras or affirmations about how good a car tesla can make about how smart the ceo is and remind yourself here's another company that actually lands rockets tesla make the best cars test to make evs at the lowest cost tesla make the best evs they have the most advanced fsd etc etc keep telling yourself enough until you've made up your own mind blocking out all this other noise i mean if you look out to the media you're likely going to get doom and gloom i have the usual people telling me tesla will get down to 100 or 200 now obviously no one knows what will happen but if tesla ever did get that low it's not likely to be a tesla related issue it would be a market related issue and everything will be cheap and the economy may look so bad that your tesla paper loss is far from your biggest concern right now those are dystopian type price targets we don't need to go there we'll try and keep within a likely reality as much as possible still having said that there is a possibility of going sub 600 i've stopped buying leaps currently i had six i wanted to buy to replace the six i sold when the stock was around eleven hundred i think i'm going to try and be patient it's not easy as when it bounces back you definitely have a very fickle attitude and will quickly ask yourself what was i thinking tesla was under 700 why did i not buy it don't punch yourself too much this is why i did buy two leaps so far just so i didn't miss this dip of course there was the other side when it just keeps dropping and you bought too early but it's possible we go into an extra recession and maybe the stock will stay trading between 600 and 800 for the rest of the year still lots of good buying opportunities except it becomes harder to find conviction in a recession tesla will still remain a growth company throughout this time though there is a lot of growth left for tesla anyway we have this q2 among us we always knew it was going to be bad but the lockdowns make it worse and we even have a bitcoin loss to add too however we will have higher asps and improved margins for fremont and shanghai but will also have the reduced margins from berlin i'm not sure though we'll even be seeing any deliveries from austin this quarter there don't appear to be any signs soon which means we may not see as big a hit for this quarter as we could have i think i need to work out a model that gives us a good idea of how much berlin may be losing personally i still think q2 will see a lower eps than q1 due to this i'll run some numbers for it soon though i believe this is fairly priced into the stock already but before i was expecting a larger loss from austin really though what is austin doing it's obviously still 4680 production line issues and this is really what is holding up the entire company it sounds like they may be facing issues with the battery electrode process still and trying to automate various stages as most of you know i think batteries are the core of this business and the 4680 being the best ev cell for mass production in the world well it's quite a big deal i wish there was more news to report on the progress of the 46 eddy sale or the new austin model y but it seems to have gone radio silent all that anticipation and build up to finally discover what these 4680s can achieve to be left with just an impressive drone show was a little disappointing but still over a month on now from cyber rodeo and we haven't had any updates this is still the most exciting element of tesla's business as it all grows from here we're just seeking validation that it can be executed i don't mind if it even takes another two years as long as it happens i believe the value of that battery and associated technology alone may add an extra zero onto the stock price within time hence my enthusiasm on progress with this cell but we've been left hanging here in limbo somewhat just trying to make predictions on the rest of the business anyway fortunately tesla china alone can pretty much become big and profitable enough to grow into the current stock price as long as it's not held back look this was a rough time for tesla anyway they're still suffering with supply chains elon's been selling a lot of stock hurting the stock price so to suddenly throw on top a potential recession as well tesla's going to get hurt we all have a lot of conviction and faith in this company and its future we put the ceo on a pedestal and have seen him work wonders for most of you just buying stock in reality it doesn't matter if you bought 800 or 600 you'll still be happy in a few years when it's around three thousand dollars it just gets a little trickier if you're trading options when you have an expiration date just think will you be kicking yourself in a few months if we were trading above a thousand dollars again did we just miss the last ever opportunity of buying tesla stock at this good of price before 46 eddie's ramp up the entire business to the next level is it worth increasing your portfolio knowing you've run the risk of a further drop are you being too greedy waiting to get in extra cheap we're all in different financial positions and all have different targets for our tesla shares as i said i'm buying this dip slowly i don't want to miss out from it but i also need to catch it pretty low as i'm trading these options i still want to see 4680 sales hit volume production if they'd reach that then i think i'd be leveraging myself massively right now i'm not really concerned about any of these other short term issues of the business if 4680s have succeeded i think tesla will be able to handle a recession you've most likely been here before many times and kicked yourself each time for not buying when it was so low equally you've also probably bought on the past dips only for it to keep dipping try and block out all the noise and other people's opinions and center and ground yourself to try and work out your own decision on whether it's a good time to buy these are uncertain economic times we don't know where currencies are going to end up how much more inflation is left and how high rates may end up you need to work out what is right for your future but either way let me know what you plan on doing
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