저자: TeslaEconomist · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가에는 FSD·로보택시 기대가 거의 반영되지 않았다고 주장. FSD가 시가총액의 약 10%를 차지한다고 가정해 1조~3조 달러 가치 잠재력을 언급. 테슬라는 자동차 회사로서도 높은 마진 덕분에 PE 20~30 이상이 정당하며, 2022년 4분기 이익이 전년 대비 약 3배 증가할 것으로 봐 PE가 약 30 수준이라고 평가. 자율주행 비판자들을 공격하며 FSD를 낙관.
다듬은 글
welcome to the tesla economist please hit the thumbs up and remember to okay a lot of people are still very doubtful on fsd let alone robo taxis i don't think anyone is close to credible enough to know whether fsd is possible more so than the actual people working on it however those that you might assume credible also seem to lean on the side of positivity as far as tesla's progress wall street however well obviously are acting very conservative and dubious around the whole deal so much so that i don't actually believe that fsd nor rebel taxis are very much even baked into the stock price and even if they were it wouldn't be much and is quickly diluted by any major advances in autos for example perhaps 10 of tessa's valuation is based on fsd and the potential it has there i.e if tesla has a valuation of 1 trillion and 10 percent of that is fsd then that would place 100 billion valuation on fsd and robo taxis now if tesla had a good quarter for deliveries and profits it could see a 20 jump in the stock price i.e 200 billion appreciation twice or fsd has been valued into the company any major negative fsd issues will only make the market overreact it has no perspective or rationality i swear if tesla had some major fsd issue it could tank the stock 30 percent probably about three times what the market valued fsd at it could literally give fsd a negative valuation like i was saying the most credible people who think this can work a tesla and they also have the most to gain and when i say most i literally mean the most more than anything anyone has ever gained ever before in history a potential 10 to 30 trillion dollar valuation that is what a lot of people believe the value of fsd might add onto tesla this is a lot of money obviously 10 to 30 times return on the current stock price if you had about 50 000 invested there's a good chance this would make you a millionaire it could even be looked at that about 10 of our stock price is a lottery ticket for this event to occur making what i would have thought the majority of you listening potentially millionaires and some of you billionaires oh and elon a multi-trillionaire so that's our lottery ticket except it doesn't expire each week we can hold it for decades if we wanted and if at any stage this fsd or robo taxi service was ever achieved that would be our numbers coming up except instead of winning one line in lottery tickets it was hundreds or thousands of stocks that hit the right number except i think the chances of tesla achieving fsd are significantly higher than you or me winning the lottery but what if our numbers don't come up or at least what about until they do come up does tesla have a massively inflated valuation if fsd is not a reality or at least not anytime soon i think that is what a lot of people believe but as i mentioned before fsd is probably only about 10 of the valuation so what's the rest based on well energy makes no profit so that doesn't have much value therefore the vast majority of the valuation does come down to just being a car company tesla is still just valued as a car company however a car company in a particular market segment evs which means it does get a high evaluation and when the market understands and differentiates more the difference between an ev and a tesla kind of like the difference between an electric typewriter and an ibm back in the 80s then tesla should also deserve a higher pe than the rest of the industry tesla deserves a higher pe ratio even when tesla matures and all the other evs are mature too even if they all share the same tech well licensed teslas i should say then tesla will still have a higher pe why because tesla will always have higher margins tesla can build their cars at a much lower cost investors see value in a product with this much buffer in a demand due to the higher margins in a down economy tesla can always lower prices or to be more competitive at any time tesla can lower prices it's a great tool for any business to have it's somewhat similar to how the middle east is able to get oil out of the ground so much cheaper than other parts of the world thus they can still profit through lower oil prices hence aramco having a p e ratio higher than the rest of the industry anyway all of this means that the eevee industry gets a much higher pe ratio than the ice vehicle industry and likely will continue to have a high pe for a long time i would expect that even next decade we may see tesla with a p e ratio as high as 30 at least relative to pes in today's economic environment a pe of 20 to 30 might end up being what the market places on a mature ev company especially when there are major advances in battery technologies to come along with all other associated facets that will be invested in and thus hopefully the cost of evs will drop further and profits will rise in addition to that though are the jumps in progress with autonomous driving when that technology is out then the pes will jump again into the hundreds i know tessa's pe ratio still looks quite high but when you trim some fat and massage some numbers you can find a pe of around 70 that's based on 2021's q4 financials if tesla only double profit by q4 2022 then that would be a pe ratio of 35 at today's current stock price again perhaps with a bit of massaging but eventually the market does catch up all these knots get massaged out and the market feels better about the stock again that is however based on the earnings doubling year over year does that sound overly likely i think probably closer to 150 increase which is a p e ratio of around 30 at today's stock price what am i saying here i'm saying that i believe tesla won't be far off having triple profits in q4 2022 than they did compared to q4 2021 if the stock price hasn't changed then it would be the equivalent now of 28 years of these earnings from the queue for 2022 this is only from auto profits auto profits which have more than doubled year over year implying a lot of growth still going on within this company implying that perhaps a pe ratio of around 30 might still be too low this doesn't factor in any new breakthroughs announcements product reveals or releases or anything else that could boost the stock price over that time this is tesla solely valued as an auto company just like it is today i feel like some people think there is some sort of escalation as to when this will all blow up in elon and tesla's faces fsd is going to be a total flop and tesla's stock price is going to drop as fast as enron it's all one big scam fsd just isn't possible not in our lifetime well if fsd is all one big scam then we still have this massively profitable fast-growing auto business to ride the stock price wave rebo taxis were just a lottery ticket anyway remember except fsd looks pretty good to me in fact it's mind-blowing absolutely the fact my car can potentially drive itself i mean get some reality get some perspective oh but it phantom breaks every now and then it also drives you from home to work uninterrupted every now and then too remember it's clearly still in beta also wouldn't you rather it was phantom breaking than phantom accelerating or phantom swerving into the next lane wait until legacy autos start evolving with their fsds and we'll start seeing all kind of phantoms come out of their driving focus on what has actually been achieved because we've all become so spoiled or something and are not able to realize how truly amazing fsd is when did people become so entitled like this can't we just be happy for this company and ceo who have worked really hard in trying to make this product to enrich our lives and reduce the likelihood of someone close to us being involved in a fatal car crash no instead we have to jump all over them and criticize everything they do and hold back suppress or oppress this life-saving technology why because you don't like musk or are you envious you missed out on the tesla stock rush you can't let go of ice you're too scared of robots why seriously why can't people be supportive of one of the most amazing technological breakthroughs for mankind anyway i just wanted to break down these beliefs that so much of tesla is riding on fantasy ideas of self-driving vehicles and instead explain how the valuation is actually much more intrinsic than it actually appears fsd is absolutely unbelievable mind-blowing the fact it can do what it can do is impressive enough but you know what according to some of the research i've done regarding fsd now despite it already being as good as it is today well it would seem according to my research it's only going to get better not only that once it's gotten better it will keep getting better again and again oh and exponentially anyway if you ask me as far as fsd is concerned we've already hit five out of the six lottery numbers we're just waiting for the sixth
Comments 0