저자: Lee · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 중국 봉쇄 과잉반응, 머스크 주식 매도로 눌렸으나 세액공제·FSD·AI Day·Dojo·Q3 실적 등 다수 촉매가 대기 중이라 주장. 주가가 여러 이벤트에도 반응하지 않았지만 '탈출속도'에 도달할 것이며 Q3 실적이 주가를 350 부근으로 밀어올릴 수 있다고 전망. 2025 LEAPS 매수 등 공격적 베팅을 시사.
다듬은 글
hi it's lee and welcome to the tesla economist firstly i'd just like to thank all my patreons for your support i know it sounds right but this channel wouldn't be possible without you and you cover almost all my costs so thank you very much all right so the stock has recovered somewhat from its low we saw in may about 37 since that dip compared to the nasdaq which recovered 27 from its low of a similar time at least at the time of this video tesla was hit particularly bad as i said at the time the china lockdowns were an overreaction and of course elon selling a large amount of tesla stock only further exacerbated the situation it was a gift having the stock price that low but not only that once we're through that then we had a lot of events on the horizon lots of really big events that should really impact the stock price or at least we hoped however it being tesla and elon and tessa telling us about their new products that revolutionized the world we know and blow our minds time over time again the stock never moves or even slightly declines we might watch an event like battery day and think wow this is it tesla found a way to actually make enough cells to truly make transitioning evs a possibility i can't believe they did it and what a sell the 46 edius yet the stock actually dropped slightly after battery day the way tesla's stock price behaves is an s-curve it just starts to run and doesn't stop eventually at least in the meantime there are lots of ups and downs and even a few full starts only to be smacked back down again until eventually there is the straw that breaks the camel's back it sends the stock price off into escape velocity and it could be for any sort of reason like last year it was just about there with none other than the hertz deal that seemed to really send the stock price flying only to be hit down with macro issues and a war the hertz deal made very little difference to the company anyway it was pretty insignificant but it was enough to dramatically move the stock anyway there are a lot of events on the horizon right now although we do also have the weight and pressure of the macro environment compressing the market too creating more gravity for us until we hit escape velocity once again and level up the stock price but so many big events i did earlier buy an option to cover them all as just one of them needs to hit there is a good chance in fact we've even had some already for starters tesla will get this massive tax credit pretty much seven half thousand dollars off every tesla made in the us in addition to that we're now discovering there may be a further four thousand dollars or so that tesla get just for some of the batteries too and this lasts for 10 years and this is for tesla's biggest market the u.s with what will be their largest capacity and inevitably the next location will be announced in north america too all right well this will obviously increase demand for tesla a lot as if there wasn't already enough reasons already i'd also say that tesla have to absorb a lot of that credit too to manage demand i.e increased prices and margins and profits yet the stock price didn't seem to care then we had to split there was a chance that this could take the stock price for a little ride or at least if history was anything to go by yes sure we all understand it doesn't actually make the company any better but the market doesn't react pragmatically like that i remember early last year i would get so many comments about people wanting another stock split as if that was the solution to increasing the stock price i figured with so many people thinking that and what happened during last split there was a chance that this one could move it somewhat too clearly it didn't have much impact despite how psychologically low the stock price looks now then we had the milestone fsd version 1069 which appears to be a huge jump in fsd just from what the previous version was soon with a follow-up version too fsd is worth trillions the fact tesla are getting this close and they continue to make such huge jumps and breakthroughs so quickly and regularly it's momentous yet the stock price didn't care from what i can see in this latest version is phenomenal and elon says 10.69.2 is going to be much better again as they're still being extra cautious with it i mean what will version 11 be like elon thinks it would be safer than a human driver by the end of the year we still have four more months for that to occur a lot can happen in that space especially when dealing with exponentials and especially when dealing with ai exponentials and especially when dealing with tesla ai exponentials fsd is coming fsd will pass regulation fsd be worth trillions fsd will open up to robot taxes fsd will change the world and improve world living standards dramatically alright so that's three strikes already with no stock price movement but we're not out yet one that a lot of people think will be big is the investment grade rating it's madness really to think the way it's rated the growth is solid the profit margins are insane the debt is virtually non-existent the opex is extremely low i mean obviously the rating systems are completely corrupt if anything the gfc taught us that but still it doesn't change the fact that certain institutions won't touch tesla unless they have a stronger rating tesla has the highest percentage of retail investors as it is retail investors that have a real passion for this company products mission and ceo investors that are happy to hold on to their stock all this decade and weren't part of this stock for less than maybe 5 000 post split price so what's going to happen when this credit rating changes and suddenly it's secure enough for various institutions to actually buy in who they going to be buying stock from if the retail investors don't want to sell so perhaps we have a chance of some sort of squeeze happening here maybe we'll have to see we expected something similar for when tesla joined the s p 500 too the market is simply not rational when it comes to investing in tesla however sadly it would appear this may not be as soon as people hoped it sounds like moody's do not particularly like tesla if the gfc taught us anything it was just how irrelevant and corrupt these rating systems were and tesla would probably have to pay for it which is likely off-brand we might expect the next iteration of tesla's master plan to come sometime soon it's fairly predictable really it's about scaling big time i'm not really sure this will be a big mover for the stock but it will be good to hear the direction of the company for investors all right but ai day that's got to be huge perhaps maybe this will be the first event that tesla holds that actually does move the stock i'm predicting a bot that can do a job to replace a human in some form possibly something useful on the test of production line i'm thinking the bot will not be particularly aesthetic i don't even know if it will walk but hopefully it does but it's all irrelevant if it can replace a human of course it should be able to do said task faster than human and of course can work 24 7.
if it could do the equivalent work of four humans and think how much a human might cost fifty thousand dollars a year in salary and more in other benefits and costs the robot will be worth at least quarter million dollars a year so possibly perhaps one million dollars total yes there is lots of potential reports but will this go over the market's head too and that wasn't even the purpose of the event that was just the reason it was delayed to possibly try and squeeze in a bot demo what's the main course then possibly dojo coming online it's a shame it wasn't a month earlier and on the august 29th when skynet went online but never mind because shortly after that we have q3 deliveries a record quarter and deliveries with real tangible numbers that even wall street can understand then to further be accompanied later with record earnings record profit margins record eps etcetera i think this may be the one that has the biggest chance of possibly moving the stock but i think just a budge not a jump but perhaps to something like 350 which i have to say does feel pretty good and i think a lot more comfortable for everyone meanwhile we do have this epic new battery cell that is still being set up that we hope may hit high volume production and we're hearing the processes are even improving dramatically already for me this is going to be the real winner the stock price may not move but my personal valuation of tesla likely will and it sounds like 2025 leaps might be out by then and if the stock price has not moved and tests are at high volume production perhaps 100 gigawatt hours a year then i think i may take a bit of a gamble i might buy a lot of far out the money leaps and perhaps around 650 dollars for 2025 the stock could easily be in excess of a thousand dollars by then so it's a massive return on investment but still you never know what could go wrong nothing is ever guaranteed but that's the whole point of this video the fact that tesla will hit escape velocity and jump some time it's just a great feeling to be leveraged when it does anyway i don't have to convince you just how important i deem the 4680 ramp then we also have the new gigafactory location this generally inspires confidence in tesla with the market showing that tesla are still expanding despite their already massive factories of recent they're not stopping or slowing down my current prediction of this location is ohio although now they're talking about canada removing some of the regulation or helping there however there may be a surprise and we get a new international location also announced and then we have q4 which should hopefully make q3 look like q2 due to some major ramping in texas and berlin and if nothing else moves the stock then surely i would hope this does the earnings are likely to be about 120th the stock price as in the company valuation is 120 times what q4 earnings are or 30 times if you annualize that or around a pe ratio of 30 relative to those earnings at the current stock price really surely that has got to put something into perspective enough and there may be other various events like elon sorting out twitter a cyber truck specs reveal or even a 4680 multi-way specs reveal yeah we still don't even know what they can do yet but why is it all so hard to understand why are we so special that we get it yet the rest of the world doesn't why is everyone else not going all in on tesla stock to enrich themselves and have an early retirement i thought the same thing in 2017 and still it took years for the stock to move don't doubt yourself follow logic and numbers and eventually the rest will catch up thanks for listening please hit the thumbs up and subscribe you can follow me on twitter and talk to me on patreon
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