저자: Lee · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 단기적으로 현금흐름 중심의 시장 환경에서 어려움을 겪을 수 있으며, 2022년 4분기 약 400달러(일부 420달러)까지 오를 수 있고 1분기 조정 후 2023년 중반 이후 본격 상승해 2023년 말~2024년 초 900~1000달러 가능성을 제시. 근거는 3분기 순이익 약 50억 달러, 4분기 약 70억 달러 추정과 4680 배터리 생산 확대, 중국 공장 기여. 장기적으로 S-커브 상승을 예상.
다듬은 글
hi it's lee and welcome to the tesla economist i've been giving extra thought to tesla's stock price lately i guess this is partly due to me trying to become more of a trader these days of which i mean concentrating on my trading more not trading more of my position remember i'm 90 shares with a whole strategy and the vast majority of you are too and don't care about the stock price until 2030 blah blah blah but that's not really true is it although it is rationally true it's not mentally true you care what the stock price will be in the meantime and you care what it is today because you're human with all associated emotions that come with the package seeing the stock price move up validates your preconceptions more and keeps us confident makes us feel better and makes us feel wealthier despite it not rising enough for us to ever consider selling i've really been trying to get in tune more with the market and how it will react to tesla especially in this tough unpredictable economic climate my consensus is that the market no longer cares much about the future and is more concerned about the present it wants tangible assets with real returns hence why high dividend stocks are outperforming growth stocks money has become more expensive and is becoming even more expensive when it was pretty much free you could throw money at investments that may not see a positive return until perhaps as long as next decade companies like quantum scape for example which had a high of one hundred and fifteen dollars currently trading at around ten dollars oh wow that's quite the drop origin 130 dollars down to 33.
these are huge drops in value investors are less patient in these economic times and the same applies to tesla wow robo taxis worth trillions of dollars yeah sure but not for some time still it's really easy to get ahead of ourselves but as much as tesla resembles a tech company it's still at the mercy of its manufacturing and tesla makes really big products the biggest mass produced product segment in the world not smartphones that are so small they can fit in your hand but products that are so large your entire body can fit inside them they take time to design and scale in addition to that we faced covert which set us back and the future of the company hangs on the success of the 46 eddy cell which is clearly facing some issues despite once past said issues it will likely be better than what you ever told on battery day and i've been vocal about how important the 4680 line is yes it's amazing that tesla can ramp up to such high levels on a production line in china and can hopefully do even better than that with their newest production techniques but it still isn't enough to take us to some serious returns until we see the 4680 sales ramp up and again the market doesn't seem to be taking this seriously i think the market wants real numbers we should see around 5 billion in earnings for q3 compared to 3.3 billion in q1 that's quite the jump despite that only being a 20 increase in deliveries yet still over 50 percent more in profit again this is the economies of scale kicking in more along with some really high price increases i think this will move the stock somewhat and we could see around 330 to 350 assuming no major macro movements q4 should reach about seven billion dollars in net profit which again i would hope it pushes the stock to around four hundred dollars perhaps 420 yes sure there are tons of other amazing tesla events happening that all mean a lot to us but i think we are too echo chambered and just because we understand it it goes over just about everyone else's heads elon will tell us something and instantly we might think wow that's worth an extra trillion dollar valuation to tesla awesome but the market doesn't see it that way in fact often the opposite like what is this delusional ceo thinking launching a vehicle that looks like that he's totally lost the plot and shouldn't be in charge of tesla i think we have a lot more faith in elon than the average person yet we see these miraculous engineering feats that elon is able to achieve and we think well if he can do that then surely he can probably do this and all the things tesla have achieved a date well that was when the stock price was about 1 20th the price it was today well tesla has added a ton more resources and hired a lot more people to help them with this mission and learned a thing or two on the way yet since then we're still not seeing any new innovation actually in any products perhaps except the giga casting machines but the stock was still a lot lower even back then now don't you think all these extra investments on r d and talent has gone somewhere anyway that's just for the fanboys to understand it would appear as the rest of the market is missing at all so the market wants tangibility right now which is going to come down to real numbers production numbers and profits along with new models and new factories now i talk about how tessa's stock does move in an s-curve but that doesn't mean it will triple overnight it means it remains flat for a few years and then starts to run for perhaps a further 6 to 12 months i think we have a more comfortable price after q4 but this could get hit down again with further 46ed delays in the meantime the company is going to be pretty much carried by china china's been carrying tesla for some time they've had great success there and it's been great for cash flow the speed at which they're producing cars there is simply phenomenal the fact they're able to further ramp up to a much higher level again is just mind-blowing and hopefully only just a small example of what we will see in berlin and texas china will also expand further too and catl and byd will continue to supply tesla with more sales to further help to be honest right now tesla china is the heart of this business hence why the lockdowns hurt so much berlin and texas are not pulling their weight but next year we should hopefully see another china factory operational and no doubt cranking the market will give that value however q1 may suffer a little if we still don't have 4680s we still have some time until we get there but there will be no significant stockpile of 2170 sales remaining in fact it may even be possible that tesla are choosing not to ramp up texas and berlin that much right now because they don't want to deplete the stockpile as fast and would rather produce a thousand a week or so for the rest of the year then wrap it up to two or three thousand and have none left for q1 i would love to tell you they'll all be okay but we don't know yet however elon seems very confident about it i just like to see it for myself and i can't wait as it will make me revalue tesla in a big way and i will take on a different investment strategy as a result but once they are running then wow we will finally have the 4680 model ym production the best ev in the world in every way but of course these sales need to be in full effect by mid next year as that is when the cyber track is launched assuming the cyber truck is launched on time for like a better word then there's going to be a boost in the stock i mean it's highly likely there could be some production issues along the way as this is revolutionary new line but seeing the production increase month over month will bolster a lot of confidence in this company and as a result people start seeing cyber trucks on the road with their own eyes then i think that will also affect the stock price then the more it ramps the more the stock price might follow along with the 46 4680 sales ramping and the austin and berlin model wise meanwhile next year there's a chance that we will be in some sort of recession hopefully the fed have broken the back of inflation without crashing the economy too much i mean they have to find a balance anyway and from there towards the end of the year we might be seeing our way out of it and ready for recovery this will obviously take a lot of the pressure off the market and start to see more reasonable pe ratios for a growth company such as tesla so to sum up the stock to potentially over 400 around q4 possibly higher but this market has some serious gravity despite tesla totally going against it as best they can then a potential dip in q1 then the real run-up should be happening for the rest of the year as tesla really gets going with their new factories and we see some serious production if they sort 4680s then we could have around 3 million deliveries for 2023 i would hope that it ends up hitting around 900 to a thousand dollar stock price perhaps at the end of 2023 or early 2024 with all of this and it could probably achieve that sitting at something like a p e ratio of 50 just as a very rough guess even if i'm really wrong then what part am i wrong about well in my opinion being really wrong would likely mean perhaps i am one year off which i would say is more likely really really wrong well are you really going to be that upset if you triple your money in two years time instead of one year even if it took 10 years then you still done very well and i know how many shares a lot of you hold and that would make for a sweet retirement when i invested in tesla i wasn't hoping to get 10x return until about 2027.
sure i ran tons of scenarios where if this happened and that happened then it could be higher but none of them absolutely none had me 20x by 2021 there is always what i like to call the tesla and elon magic or as elon has even said pulling a rabbit out of a hat this is something that tesla does and i don't think anyone puts this magic into their estimates thanks for listening please hit the thumbs up and subscribe you can follow me on twitter and talk to me on patreon
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