저자: TeslaEconomist · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 1200달러 돌파 후 시간외 상승, 시가총액 하루 약 1500억 달러 증가를 언급. 4분기 순이익 전분기 대비 50~60% 증가 전망, 배송 28% 증가가 규모의 경제로 이어진다고 주장. 4680 배터리 구조용 팩, 베를린·텍사스 공장 가동, 반자율 트럭, 추가 액면분할 기대를 제시. 주식 분할 발표 시 1400달러 이상, 최대 2000달러까지 상승 가능성을 언급. 경기침체 가능성은 인정하나 테슬라는 하락장에 강하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
thank you at the time of this video Tesla's stock price touched twelve hundred dollars during the trading hours but struggled to get past that twelve hundred dollars does appear to be a barrier but once passed then it's likely we're on the path to new all-time highs however it did break the barrier after hours up to twelve hundred and seven dollars which is a great sign when we get big news like record deliveries that beat expectations then the market doesn't usually adjust the next day it can take a week or even two until we reach the adjusted trading cycle as investors test out new highs and lows I would first just like to acknowledge what has happened Tesla increased almost 150 billion dollars in market capitalization in one single day I'm pretty sure this is some kind of massive record if you recall I bought options recently not only because it looked like Tesla is about to have a blowout earnings and deliveries but because there were several other events circulating too one of them was the EV credit which didn't come through we still have some other major events around the corner some could even come through this month as well obviously one that would definitely happen will be the Q4 earnings report and shareholder questions with Elon Musk as for the actual earnings well they look to be between 50 to 60 percent higher in Q4 than Q3 by the way if you increase your net profit 50 each quarter that ends up annualized to be five times as much over a year that's how big a deal this is this was attributed to just a 28 increase in deliveries which is what I've been trying to explain the economies of scale that Tesla are reaching means that Opex is becoming relatively lower per vehicle in the a 28 increase in sales equates to perhaps twice as much of an increase in net profit for a company this size to still be growing net profit by that much is unprecedented do you understand Tesla is still very much in the growth stage as a company it just happens to have already reached a valuation and making it one of the largest companies in the world but is only getting started still yet it's hard for investors and the market to Fathom that a company of such magnitude still has such tremendous growth ahead it's hard to get your head around it's almost as if there is not enough money in the world for Tesla to reach its valuations that some of us estimate which is somewhat true except the economy is not Zero Sum wealth is created not taken at least from companies that create value to Consumers particularly through technology I'll go through all my financial predictions perhaps a couple of times even before the results I have a feeling the next surprise we might also get could be margins increasing what would the increase in lfp batteries being used and the price Rises this could shock the market again often there'll be a big build up to earnings and then the stock price will fall back down as people take profits this makes selling options particularly difficult trying to time the sale is not easy it's something I'm also less experienced in given that I don't sell my Tesla shares and it won't stop there will Elon on the earnings call which is a big deal as he decided not to do them anymore so if he's back on it could be because he has something important to say or some things important he's going to give us Tessa's roadmap as to what we'll expect to see become of the company over the next few years or so we could get all sorts of major updates new factories or extension plans of existing the compact model reveal update in-house lfb battery plans New Growth targets 46 Eddie ramp up expectations as some of the most important I can think of just off the top of my head yes that is all major but it doesn't stop there we have the new factories too and if you thought 28 growth in deliveries was good well what happens when Tesla triple their capacity in a year this company has barely begun it just happens to take a really long time to produce about a million times more batteries than the world had about 10 years ago we need a lot of batteries now Berlin is a little hard to predict but Texas looks like it's getting very close and might open sometime soon this is going to give the stock a good boost not only that if Tesla is up and running well that means it will be producing model wise but not just any model y the new Teslas with 4680 structural battery packs and front and rear die-cast modes this is Tesla's new product sure it looks very similar to the previous but it's a big difference we should finally get to hear the specifications on what these batteries are capable of not too far off one and a half years later since battery day the product finally reveals itself we'll get to see the difference in weight performance and of course range although Tesla may not disclose the battery size initially it likely won't be long until we find out how many kilowatt hours they're using in the model wise I also have a feeling that on the motorway order page there'll be a new optional extra 4680 structural pack for an extra five thousand dollars perhaps Tesla will save about five thousand dollars with the 4680s per vehicle over using 2170s and then they could have a further five thousand dollars onto the price too as it's still a better product despite it costing less it will be interesting to see there is so much happening with this company right now and don't forget about Shanghai we still need more data on what's happening there but it would appear to be a good indicator of just how impressive Tesla's manufacturing has become then we'll see further improved manufacturing processes in the new factories that should hopefully produce more vehicles per square foot than Shanghai everything is very positive for Tesla right now the stock price could run for some time there are other events to come too of course it would be good to see Berlin open as that is creating a bit of stress with all the delays we've heard that the semi-tracks potentially could start delivery sometime soon too the semi truck is a very underlooked product when you include FSD in there as well becomes an extremely valuable and profitable business but the event that would create the biggest jump in the stock price would of course be another stock split I know this is what a lot of investors have been hoping for since about the last split personally unless you're trading I think it's small-mindedness it doesn't affect the company in any way and once all the excitement of the split comes down investors mainly refer back to the fundamentals again but make no mistake it will make the stock jump and because of how we saw it react last time the market is going to be expecting something similar again but could we really consider another split only a year and a half after the previous well Factor this in the stock price was 1 374 when the previous split was announced after all these other potential catalysts to the stock price I've just mentioned well I think it's highly possible that we could boost well above 1400 even if the new Factory is open the 4680 model y specs are as good as we hope and the financials are 50 higher quarter over quarter surely those events alone are enough to take us there I just want to make sure I have some options when the split is announced which is funny investing Behavior buying options because the stock is high because it's so high that the split might be announced if a split is announced and it similar to the last then we're going to see nearly a two thousand dollar stock price now that really is quite insane well done to all of you who held for it all well done buying on those steps and buying those options and leaps I have now just about quadrupled the option I purchased back not even two weeks ago that is an outstanding return and one of my leaps is now a five-fold yes we may have to weather a storm possibly there could be some sort of recession on the horizon and Elon Musk even tweeted about the potential of one sometime this year or the latest mid-2023 but no one not even Elon Musk can predict a recession but it's best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best so I'll be going over how I'm going to prepare for a potential recession and also do more analysis on how Tesla will cope through the recession My Hope was that by the time we did enter a recession that Tesla would have their FSD sorted and or their compact tests are available I think these two products would actually thrive in the recession although Tesla will likely not have too much trouble in a down Market I can't say the same for the competition I'm not sure this is good I want more EV companies to thrive Tessa cannot do it all alone if a lot of the rest of the industry goes bust then that will not be good for the industry it needs momentum from multiple players in a lot of areas anyway when these kind of events happen with Tesla it's always very exciting
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