Michael Burry: The Market Already Crashed. You Just Don't Know It Yet...

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마이클 버리의 포트폴리오가 22개 종목에서 6개로 축소됐고 채권 약세 베팅은 비보고 파생상품으로 옮겨진 것으로 보인다는 점을 짚으며, 시장이 이미 조정 중인지에 대한 논쟁을 다룬 영상. 첫째, 버리의 포트폴리오 변화: 공개 포지션이 22개에서 6개로 줄었고, CVS 등 재무구조가 탄탄한 대형주 집중이 두드러진다. 채권 약세 베팅은 공개 보고 밖의 파생상품으로 이동한 것으로 추정된다. 둘째, 버리의 테슬라 및 아마존 관련 발언: 버리는 테슬라 주가가 닷컴 버블기 아마존처럼 90% 급락할 수 있다고 트위터에 썼다가 삭제했으며, 머스크와 리비안 흑자화 여부를 두고 설전을 벌였다. 셋째, ARK 이노베이션 ETF 대응 베팅: 버리는 옵션 시장으로 캐시 우드의 ARK 이노베이션 ETF에 약 23.5만 계약 규모의 하락 베팅을 한 것으로 언급됐다. ARKK는 연초 대비 약 7.5% 하락한 상태로 소개됐다. 넷째, 캐시 우드 반박과 게스트 평가: 우드는 버리가 펀더멘털 판단은 훌륭하지만 혁신 기업의 성장 잠재력을 이해하지 못한다고 반박했고, 게스트들은 장기 신념 기반 투자로 평가하면서도 리스크 관리는 아쉽다고 봤다. 다섯째, 시장 국면 진단: S&P500은 고점 470 부근에서 약 450 수준까지 조정됐고, 일부 게스트는 저품질주가 반등을 주도한 뒤 고품질주로 자금이 이동 중이라고 분석했다. 시가총액은 약 30조 달러에서 50조 달러 부근으로 높은 밸류에이션 상태다. 여섯째, 조정 가능성: Washington Crossing 측은 주식을 채권 대비 줄이는 전술적 자산배분을 4개월간 진행해 왔고, 정책 지원 축소 속에서 시장이 조정 및 숨고르기 국면에 들어갈 수 있다고 전망했다. 다만 본 영상은 2021년 12월 기준이며 개별 종목의 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.

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01. hey what's going on everyone i know today is going to be a little bit of a different type of video however i just had to let you guys know about michael bury and what has been going on with his portfolio because this really does add a lot of perspective as to where this market could be heading in his opinion right i'm going to try to limit my opinions as much as possible because this is a video about him in his portfolio just to see give a little bit of more insight as to where we could be heading for 2022 which a lot of people right now they are very bearish a lot of negative sentiments and again i'm not going to add mine because this is a video about michael burris let's get started so michael brewery of the big short sells just about everything and adds lockheed martin now take a look at this everyone the famed investors public positions down from 22 securities to just six so that's extremely important because he used to have 22 securities we don't know exactly what these positions were however he just limited down to now six what does this tell us and what is he trying to do how is he trying to sort of strategize his portfolio right and so he also closed bearish bets on bonds but public commentaries suggest that the positions may have been moved to a non-reporting derivative this is also very important because it states non-reporting now let's go a little bit lower because i believe it does discuss a little bit about the positions and here it is everyone look at how concentrated his equities are right now he has stocks like cvs and we could see over here 200 000 shares we have stocks like now lockheed martin we should say in the beginning cvs as you just stated and you can see there are so many shares over here and it really does equate to a lot in the dollar amount and right off the bat i'm gonna be guessing that these are companies that have a solid balance sheet they have a solid growth to it they have probably a lot of guidance going for them too even in 2022 if there is talks about tapering i think that these companies especially when i see cvs i think these are the ones that will not be affected that much and then over here we also see some more contentions between michael bury and elon musk yet again so again michael burris sparred with elon musk over rivion's true test in his second twitter spot with tesla ceo this week so i'm not gonna read all this but i am just gonna mention two points that he does make so right over here very quickly elon musk tweeted that the true test is whether rivion can achieve high production and break even cash flow and then burry tweeted back and replied no elon musk the true test is achieving that without massive government and electricity subsidies on the back of taxpayers who do not own your car bird later deleted the tweet something he's known for doing then if we also go back down we see over here in another tweet on wednesday brewery said tesla stock could plunge 90 like amazon did when the nineties.com bubble brewers quote unquote amazon fell 95 percent two decades ago changed his whole business and thrived much later he wrote in a now deleted tweet as well and before you guys hear what michael burrie is saying right now i want to pull up some charts real quick just to discuss why michael brewery may be doing what he is doing and just offer some more insights and perspectives as i said in the beginning of the video so a lot of people right now and again i'm even going to be allowing you guys to hear other people's perspectives on what stocks will probably do the best in 2022 because right now many people are worried is there going to be a crash has there already been a crash and we just don't know about it right what is really going on so the s p 500 collection of the best 500 companies this index fund has already started to go down quite a lot from the highs of 470 all the way to a lows of about four hundred forty eight dollars let's just round this to four hundred fifty dollars now people are trying to do right now or at least this is what it seems like is they're concentrating specifically on few equities just like how michael brewery did and i'm not gonna again offer my insights as to whether i think this is right or wrong but i am just saying this is what people have been doing and we did see with michael brewery how he limited his positions from 22 to just six and this is because companies back then that used to be very good now they just do not have that same growth story behind it because their balance sheet does not convey the signal that many people want for the year again of 2022.

02. and by the way this is docusign going all the way yesterday from 200 about 30 dollars a share all the way to 135 dollars a share yes this is a gap down and no this is not uncommon at this point in time and again that is why many people are confused has there already been a market crash and let's just hear what michael brewery has to say about some of this right now now he's betting against against kathy woods arc innovation fund and uh akiko this is a fund that we've uh talked about here quite a bit it had a huge run up last year and into the beginning of this year but um is off considerably from its highs i think about 20 25 down to seven and a half percent for the year and um he's done this through the options market and basically controls about 235 000 contracts and we don't know the exact strike price and here we have a heat map showing arc innovation etf holdings and these are just some of the top holdings here i will go to a year-to-date look here and you can see kind of a mixed bag over the last six months i think this is when it gets the most dark red teledoc down 50 so is uh so so are some of these other names uh spotify down 41 roku 22 percent over the last three months guess what these holdings have come back but um i don't know kiko what's your what's your take on this well kathy wood has become controversial if you want to use that word uh because of some of the lots of valuations that she has put on these big growth stocks and of course anytime you hear michael berry make a bet people are going to listen because of his history what i think is interesting is how this has kind of been aired out and i want to point to a specific tweet here because kathy wood has taken to twitter to respond specifically to michael berry saying to his credit michael has made a great call based on fundamentals and recognize the calamity brewing in the housing mortgage market but i do not believe that he understands the fundamentals that are creating explosive growth and investment opportunities in the innovation space and it comes back to the valuation argument jared because when you think about kathy what the big investments she's made on the likes of tesla she has always said this is a long-term play it is about the potential the faith in these companies to build up these big innovative ideas and some would argue uh that valuation just hasn't been proven hasn't been hasn't played out necessarily is interesting and by the way we're just reading one tweet here jared but there is a very long thread that she has put out in response yeah i'm glad you mentioned that long thread i went through the entire thing and i think i understand her mentality a little bit more and she's i find her brilliant we've interviewed her many times over the years i think some of her recent comments about cash stocks are a little bit dangerous but overall i give her a lot of credit and so you look at the disruption that's going to be taking place in automotive or just let's call it mobility the robo taxis we're not going to really see valuations well we're seeing the valuations now we're not going to see the rubber hit the road and that technology really being proven until you start moving the macro needle so once you start actually reshaping society and once the all these wonderful inventions that we're just kind of talking about once they litter the highways then i think we'll see this i i think we'll see why people were betting on companies like tesla and some of these gene therapy com companies like crispr and all different fields so i i believe in her investment thesis i think i'd like to be a little bit better at risk management but i i think i get it yeah and as you said jared off camera it is faith-based um if you look at where these companies are headed it's not about a five-year plan a 10-year plan it's about a 20-30-year plan and if you believe that the future is in autonomous driving in evs this grand vision that elon musk has put out for it for example with tesla um then you put your money behind the company but um interesting that she has felt the need to to come out and tweet this because i think she's been under a bit of pressure given the performance of specifically arcs innovation etf so far this year i i think so and we've seen where faith-based investing can be taken to an extreme with our cagos bill wang was worth 30 billion dollars one day a couple days later worth zero so uh we've seen that taken to extremes here but all in all i'm i'm quite impressed with her portfolio it's just been in a slump yeah i think so but i i don't i don't like the word defensive so much i i like the idea of quality and what we've seen in the last year was a rally off the bottom when all of the lowest quality stocks ran well above the high quality stocks so i'm talking about companies with a lot of debt i'm talking about companies with very low profitability i'm talking about companies that have a lot of volatility in their cash flow streams those were the ones that led from let's say november of last year through the summer but things have begun to change and now these higher quality stocks are holding up much better so in the last month when the market has come under this pressure high quality stocks as we define it at washington crossing are down only about one-third of what low-quality stocks are so we think move up to these higher quality names you can still get growth you can still see returns but the market is going to be more challenged here given all of the risks that we just discussed are we in a correction do you is that what you feel is that what it feels like to you it very well could be what we put it before then again a market yes worth just a little over 30 trillion dollars which was a pretty rich valuation then today that valuation is a little over 50 trillion dollars only having come down a trillion dollars or so in valuation uh terms from the high so we're still looking at a market that's fairly rich that that is now going to come into a period where there's going to be less robust policy support and you throw on top of that some question marks i guess about the growth outlook our position at washington crossing has been to lighten up on riskier assets lighten up on stocks relative to bonds we've done this over the last four months or so in our tactical asset allocation portfolios by the way and we think that we might be in for a period of backing and filling as the market digests of what has been a historic run in terms of valuation creation