저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 주가가 2024년 말 5년 목표 기준 7,000달러까지 오를 것이라는 강한 낙관론을 펼쳤다. 주가 목표와 시나리오: 5년 목표가 7,000달러는 10개 시나리오(파산 포함)의 확률 가중 평균으로 산출했고, 15,000달러는 상단(reach) 케이스라고 설명. 추가 매수: ARK가 매일 거래를 공시하며 테슬라를 계속 매수해 왔고, 확신이 커졌다고 밝힘. 자율주행·라이드쉐어링: 라이드쉐어링은 수익성이 높고 자율주행으로 가는 교량이 될 수 있다고 봄. 테슬라 AI 데이터(주행 300억 마일, 구글 약 3천만 마일 수준 대비)를 강점으로 꼽음. 발생 확률: 자율주행 성공 확률이 올라가고 있으며, 시나리오 테스트에서는 2~3년 내 자율주행 가동 확률을 25%로 가정했다고 설명. 전기차 경쟁력: 테슬라 점유율은 글로벌 기준 17%에서 18%로 오름. 배터리 원가는 경쟁사보다 3~4년 앞서 있으며 경쟁사는 손실 판매가 불가피하다고 주장. 생산 능력: 상하이 공장을 1년 내 건설·가동한 점을 높게 평가, 독일·텍사스 공장 확장도 긍정적으로 봄. 마진: 전기차 자체 매출총이익률은 현재 25~30%에서 배터리 기술로 40%까지 상승 가능, 자율주행 추가 매출은 80% 이상 마진이 기대된다고 함. 배터리·AI칩: Maxwell 인수로 배터리 기술 관련 깜짝 발표 가능성 언급. 자체 AI칩은 엔비디아 제품보다 4년 앞선 것으로 평가. 기술 융합: 전기차, AI, 배터리 세 혁신 플랫폼이 동시에 수렴하는 지수 성장 구간이라고 주장. 전통 애널리스트가 가치평가하기 어렵다고 함. 출연자 전망 요약: 테슬라 주가 상승(장기 강세, 5년 기준 7,000달러), 중기 자율주행 기대감 유지.
다듬은 글
how do you feel about tesla's price now and are you still adding to your position uh yes well as you know we report our trades every day and you will see that we have been adding to tesla we our confidence in tesla has grown as we've done research on what ride sharing potentially could add it could limit the risk significantly it's a much more profitable business than electric vehicles and we do think even though i think there's some debate at uh tesla whether or not they should launch a human-driven ride-hailing network it would be a very good bridge we think to their autonomous strategy and we think they will decide to do that uh i don't think anyone has uh in their models uh anything for ride sharing and then as time goes on and we learn about their artificial intelligence expertise the 30 billion miles they've collected of real world driving data no one comes close not even i think google might be at 30 million compared to 30 billion and we know that in the ai world and autonomous is ai that uh that the the company with the the most data and the best quality data will win uh so uh we're pretty excited about autonomous and our the probability of success in autonomous uh we believe is going up uh and therefore our price target will probably follow at some point after that distinct sell-off tesla has room to run in fact she thinks tesla could hit fifteen thousand dollars a share i know fifteen thousand a share is not your base case it's your it's your reach case what is your base case base case where this 700 stock is in four years yes the base case uh it's a five year target so the end of twenty four uh it's seven thousand dollars and we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for seven thousand dollars over the next five years is very high so you take out your lowest probability scenarios you take out uh the ones that you think are just aren't going to work or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right on what bricks is this seven thousand dollar foundation founded is it improving margins is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale or what yes the there are three sources for the increase in our estimate our estimated price target uh one is as tesla killers entered the market last year we expected uh tesla's market share to go down from 17 globally that includes china to something lower instead it went up to 18 and the reason is 17 in electric vehicles or in all vehicles no electric electric vehicle electric this is global there there are many electric vehicle manufacturers in china very low quality but very so what we're learning is tesla is just so far ahead of the pack and i'm talking about the bmws the mercedes as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles their battery cost is three years ahead three to four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost declines and so every other auto manufacturer will if they want to be competitive with tesla will and i'm including bmw and daimler and all if they want to be competitive like for like they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business so they're they have a big problem so are you confident enough in their ability to overcome what i would call sort of manufacturing hair balls that have struck them in the past and caused them to miss or delay production targets so nothing is in a straight line you can't promise but what they did in shanghai was unbelievable you know breaking ground and producing within a year and i think they're taking those learnings elsewhere uh in germany outside of berlin we've been thinking okay that's a set up for bureaucracy they have been welcomed with open arms because germany doesn't want to lose the auto industry right and they don't want to lose the jobs so uh and now we're hearing potentially about texas so we think they're going to surprise uh on the production side now it took a lot of trial and error just like with their falcon rockets when they were trying to land them it was failure failure failure failure then success and now they've been successful pretty much every time since but is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced yeah i think they acquired a company called maxwell technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology so what i just said to you does not even incorporate maxwell so yes we do think there are surprises on the battery front they have their own ai chip for autonomous the only auto manufacturer to have one and james wang who worked at our analyst who worked at nvidia for eight nine years uh took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that nvidia is going to be able to produce can because a single purpose is not general purpose so we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue very high margin almost software as a service like opportunity autonomous taxi networks and what what you have baked in the cake from the street primarily are low margin gross margins uh more like auto you know in the 25 30 range we actually think gross margins because of their battery technology could head for 40 on the ev itself and then the incremental revenues from autonomous would be in the 80 plus range and we think that's what people are missing and in our thousand dollar target so the scenario testing we assume only a 25 chance that they're going to be up and running uh with autonomous within two to three years when you get to this 7 000 to pick your more moderate case what's it trading at as a multiple of earnings or as a what will that what will that valuation then be so in five years again we we don't really operate like that we're just trying to figure out the cash flows and do and then discount them but one of the things that i'd like to focus on is the reason this is such a is going to be such a big upside surprise is because tesla is riding the convergence of three major innovation platforms convergence it's very hard to analyze this in the traditional world right auto analysts are not robotics experts they are not artificial intelligence experts or battery experts uh we have three analysts working on this model together all of them are characterized by exponential growth during the night we are ready for prime time the sodium the seeds for what uh we're about to witness now not just with tesla but with genomics with 3d printing with everything we do the seeds were sown during the tekken telecom bubble the costs back then were way too high to play out for for those those platforms to play out the costs have been coming down for 20 years we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value this is all we do we do nothing but disruptive innovation because we have never seen as much disruptive innovation evolving at the same time ever you have to go back to telephone electricity internal combustion engine that's the last time we saw exponential growth
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