저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식시장 전체가 최고 수준의 버블이라고 단정할 수는 없지만, 버블 지표는 1910년 이후 상당히 높은 편이며 종목별로 버블 여부를 구분해서 봐야 한다. 버블 판단 기준 6가지: 가격이 전통적 지표(PE, 수익률) 대비 얼마나 높은지, 지속 불가능한 조건을 가격이 반영하는지, 투기적 요소(새 투자자 유입, 강한 낙관 심리), 선물 구매(미래 가격 상승을 기대한 선매입), 신규 IPO(이익 없음, 높은 주가매출비율) 등이다. 금리가 낮으면 주식 밸류에이션이 높아도 상대적으로 정당화될 수 있다는 점도 언급했다. 시장 지표: 상위 1000개 종목 중 버블 해당 비율은 약 5%, S&P500은 약 2% 수준. 2000년·1929년보다는 낮지만 2007년보다는 높다고 설명했다. 버블 종목 지수는 S&P500 대비 하락(버블 해소)이 진행 중이며, 이 흐름이 계속될 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 다만 버블은 확장과 수축을 반복하므로 타이밍이 핵심이라고 덧붙였다. 거시 원인: 부채/GDP 증가, 금리 제로 수준, 대규모 통화 발행(유동성)이 버블의 전형적 원인으로 제시되었다. 1930년, 2008년 이후 제로금리와 통화 증발 구간을 차트로 비교했다. 신규 IPO 중 이익이 없거나 주가매출비율이 높은 경우도 버블 신호로 꼽았다. 결론적으로 시장 전체를 일괄적으로 버블로 보기보다 개별 종목 단위로 버블 여부를 구분해야 하며, 많은 종목은 버블이 아니라고 강조했다. 채권시장도 유사한 버블 위험이 있다는 취지로 마무리했다.
다듬은 글
i was asked to talk about uh bubbles you know is the market in a bubble stock market in a bubble what's in a bubble a bunch of years ago um i started to think about well what is a bubble what what do i mean when i have a bubble because i watched a lot of bubbles over my something like 50 years of investing um and um i i basically think uh thought there were six things that made a bubble in my mind and i'm going to rattle them off then apply them so that you know what i think first you know how how high are prices relative to the traditional measures of um prices is a consideration for example you know our pe is high or um yields uh low and that kind of thing that's a consideration but i it's not what i mean by a bubble let's let's say for example you can have prices high which means uh returns low and you can have that go on for a very long time that doesn't mean a bubble pops so i'm really looking at whether you get a pop but still it's an ingredient so for example let's say if we were to take the bond yields the bond yields are um extremely low levels and so say think about bonds as having a multiple the multiples of bonds are you know like 75 times earnings or something depending on what bond market you're uh operating in and so when stocks compete with bonds they're competing with low uh returns and so um it's not uh unreasonable to think that the stock market could have a multiple of 50 times if bonds have a 75 time multiple why can't bonds and that means a low return so that's one of the considerations but it's not all the second is prices are discounting unsustainable conditions so unsustainable starts to be part of this picture of a bubble unsustainable means that by the nature of the buying whoever is doing the buying and how of that supply demand that means that that won't be sustained and that produces a correction or price is going down and then um there's this speculative element number three so one of those measures of the speculative elements is new buyers in the market they're attracted in the market you know it's the sort of thing where you know you go to a cocktail party and people who are never involved in the thing are investing in it and that could be tech stocks and it could be real estate and whatever but you know they're drawn in and that there's a big bullish sentiment so everybody wants not having these things makes you feel dumb that kind of thing and then also uh number five on my list is big purchases uh forward purchases you know like if somebody's buying apartments that they don't own because they think that the apartments are going to go up or back in the days where i traded a lot of commodities i would watch that those who used commodities would rather than buy from hand to mouth they would get a lot of forward coverage in other words buy inventory to protect themselves against the prices going up and so when they go from as we have recently seen in commodities when they go from not uh having forward coverage because prices went down and they kept falling and they say i don't want to own it to and then it going up and they say i want to be protected against it going up that movement causes a lot of mine and so on so that's the buyers that have extended those forward purchases are an indicator that i use this table here that i'm showing shows for the stock market as a whole those items that you know are we in a bubble is the stock market in a bubble well i apply that basically that framework to all individual securities and i do that in a systematic way because my process is to write down the criteria to use filters and so on and and try to see which are in a in a bubble so there are different different stocks some are in bubbles it seems to me some are not in bubbles and the stock market as a whole uh is indicated by that table let me just go to the next chart so this chart goes back to 1910 and it shows the on an indicator of the degree to which we're in a bubble you could see that it's bubbly and it's not as high as the total bubble but not not as high as it was in 2000 not as high as it was in 1929 but higher than it was in 2007 let's take a look at the stocks that are in a bubble a lot of stocks are not in a bubble according to those criteria so this goes back back to 1995 that chart and it gives you an idea so this is the first chart is the share of the top thousand charts that are uh in a bubble um and so it's been about five percent or the share of the s p 500 about two percent by comparison to those in 2000 again not as high as the 2000 bubble or the 29 bubble which were comparable but higher than 2007 so let's go to the next chart and this shows um with the bubble stocks i put together an index of those that are bubble stocks and this shows how they've performed in relationship to the s p 500 and so you could start to see as we're uh breaking down the bubble and um i believe that that's likely to continue but uh being in a bubble one of the things is you you know bubbles can expand and contract and the timing is a big issue okay so why are we in a bubble uh this chart goes back to 1900 and the top chart shows a debt to gdp the bottom chart in the blue line shows interest rates and the red line shows the printing of money this the the amount of money that that's going in and so what you can see is when you have a lot of debt like we have a lot of debt now and there's a lot of increasing debt and there's the hitting of zero interest rates in both cases there's the printing of a lot of money and that's a key element of the bubbles because they have a lot of liquidity uh that comes into the market and then there's a lot of throwing around that money in terms of bidding up all sorts of assets so you could see that red line you could see how when the blue line hits zero interest rates 1930 starting in 2008 and since we've had that movement then you have you see the largest movement now so a lot of liquidity a lot of debt financed debt monetization makes for a classic bubble other items are new ipos with particularly if they have no earnings high price to revenue or in many cases no prospect of of making money those are bubble considerations too so i would say you can't say the stock market is in the highest a bubble you can't even say that it's necessarily in a bubble you have to distinguish uh which ones which stocks are in a bubble or have been in a bubble uh from those that are not in a bubble there are a lot of stocks that aren't and that bubble is a little bit like the bond market you
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