저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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멍거는 중국 투자를 정당화하며 알리바바를 Berkshire의 상위 3개 보유 종목 중 하나로 언급한다. 알리바바는 미국 동종 기업 대비 큰 폭의 할인 가격에 거래되며, 가장 비교 가능한 아마존 PER의 약 1/3 수준이라고 설명된다. 멍거는 알리바바가 아마존·애플·알파벳만큼 견고하지 않다고 보며, 인터넷 경쟁이 치열할 것이라고 본다. 중국 투자 이유로 달러당 강점이 더 많고 가격이 낮다는 점을 들며, 정치·규제 리스크에는 개인적으로 덜 불편하다고 말한다. 멍거는 현재 시장이 큰 거품이며 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이라고 보지만, 시점은 확신하지 못한다. 일본의 대규모 통화 발행과 장기 정체 사례를 언급하며, 미국도 유사한 긍정적 결과를 기원한다고 말한다. 중국 기업 중 최고 기업들이 미국 최고 기업들보다 싸다고 주장하며, 중국이 시장경제를 수용해 성장했다고 높이 평가한다. 일반 투자자에게 중국 투자를 적극 권하지는 않지만, 똑똑한 사람이라면 중국에서 우량 기업 4~5개를 찾을 수 있다고 본다.
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charlie munger's daily journal nearly doubling down on a china bet scooping up some shares on the dip the interesting thing about munger and alibaba is that he has time and again expressed his admiration for sort of the autocratic way china runs its economy um often while also expressing his chagrin at how we run ours so you know i i think that people understand with their sort of byd investments and others that he may have a the stomach kind of long term yeah the risk appetite right exactly which is a lot of a lot of people are doing that yeah absolutely he's probably the most high profile person who could really kind of plant that stake in the ground alibaba is a top three holding for you it sells at a steep discount to its u.s peers best comparable is amazon which is triple alibaba's pe so what discount should should u.s investors seek when buying chinese stocks considering the political regulatory and especially the ownership structure risk oh and considering the fortune berkshire made on your byd suggestion why doesn't buffa buy alibaba well warren like many other intelligent people likes to invest where he's personally comfortable for some reason i'm more comfortable with the chinese than he is that's a minor difference i have all kinds of places where i'm just like war and i have all kinds of things where i'm not comfortable and i just don't go near them i think an old guy's entitled to invest where he wants to invest in what makes you uncomfortable what do you know it's okay to have some things that you just don't want to bother with like crypto i got i think alibaba is as it is i don't think alibaba is as entrenched as something like apple and alphabet i think the internet is going to be a very competitive place even if you're a big internet bob regental who has a phd in 1979 from marinetal engineering asked so how would you rate investing in china with the current political tensions or are you invested in china through the ownership of american companies that do business in china of course i'm invested partly in american companies that do business in china including coca-cola but i'm also invested very significantly in china through the management of lilu who in the hunger family backed heavily when he formed a little private equity firm to invest in china and he has had a very successful record and that's made me follow very closely the leading companies in china and of course i've had very successful experience there and i think it's likely to continue no other big country ever got ahead this fast for that long and does that say that sort of the politics don't matter so much or yeah that's a very interesting observation what that shows is exactly right who would have guessed that a bunch of communist chinese run by one party would have the best economic record the world has ever seen of course it's extreme and i think it proves that you know it doesn't we americans would like to think that our free expression and allowing all kinds of opinion and all kinds of criticism of the government is totally essential part of the economy and what the chinese have proved is you can have a screamingly successful economy with a fairly controlling government all the government has to do is is a is created a lot of smithy and cal smythian capitalism if you do that having a sort of a controlling one-party government doesn't matter that's not a fashionable thing to say but i think it's true why would anyone as smart as munger or buffett consider investing in china or any of the chinese companies well we did a very very simple reason we got more strengths per dollar invested in china the companies we invest in are stronger relative to their competition and priced lower that's why we're in china do you agree that there is a close parallel to the late 90s and this therefore quote must end badly yes i think it must end badly but i don't know when you mentioned we're in a big bubble can you elaborate on that and how is this likely to play out well that of course is a very intelligent question and a very difficult question when you throw money when you print money on the scale what modern nations are printing it japan the united states europe etc we're getting into new territory in terms of size the japanese bought back not only a lot of their own debt but a lot of the common stocks so the federal reserve system you can't imagine how much money printing japan has done and they haven't had all that much inflation and they it's still a very admirable civilization in fact you you could argue that japan is one of the more admirable civilizations in the whole world and in spite of all this very extreme government money printing they've done and they haven't had terrible consequences now they've had 25 years of stasis with living standards not improving very much i don't think that came from their macroeconomic policies i think that came from the rise of tough competition for their export powerhouse from china and korea but at any rate it's weird what's happening and nobody knows for sure how it's going to work out i think it's encouraging that japan can spread as much money as it has and remain as civilized and calm and admirable as it has and so i hope to god the united states has similar happy outcome but i think the japanese are better adapted for stasis than we are the monger family has invested in china substantially and i did it because i respected the man who was going to do the investing and it all looked inexpensive to me and the companies looked very strong to me and of course this worked out i've done way better than i had any right to expect does it still look that way when you look to the chinese markets i think that the best companies in china are cheaper than the best companies in the united states the concern other investors might have before they they follow in that way is that they don't know that much about chinese companies and maybe they're just generally afraid of china is there a reason that they may have some i mean you have people who are guiding you who understand china well if someone was trying to do this on their own would it be a little more dangerous sure it really helps to understand the country you're operating in of course all right there's my that's a stupid question moment um you would not necessarily advise others to do this i guess is my point for investors who are sitting at home watching i don't think it would be all that hard for any smart person to find four or five great companies in china the chinese government will allow businesses to flourish it was a one of the most remarkable things that ever happened in the history of the world when a bunch of committed communists just looked at the prosperity of places like singapore and said the hell with this we're not going to stay here in poverty we're going to copy what works and they changed communism they just accepted adam smith and added it to their communism and now we have communism with chinese characteristics which is china with a free market with a bunch of billionaires and so forth and they made that shift they deserve a lot of credit warren and i are not quite as good at that as changing our minds in many cases and and that was a remarkable change coming from such a place and of course it's worked like gangbusters it had this enormous growth in the average income of the average chinese they've lifted 800 million people out of poverty fast and there's never anything like the history of the world so my hat is off to the chinese and i think they will continue to allow people to make money they've learned it works the chinese i love what the guy said in the first place i don't care whether the cat is black and white as long as it catches mice that's my kind of talk in that list of the 20 most valuable companies that just three are chinese now if you if you're looking out 30 years you know mama do you think he'll be chinese my guess is more it's amazing what what has been accomplished and yeah really amazing and they found what works i mean there's nothing like finding something works in order to sort of reinforce ideas over time and we'll see what happens
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