저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 2022년 2월 중국 주식, 특히 알리바바 투자 확대의 배경과 중국 경제·정치 체제에 대한 견해를 설명한 인터뷰다. 멍거는 최근 분기 SEC 공시에서 알리바바 지분을 83% 늘렸다고 언급하며, 올해 초 최소 4천만 주를 추가 매수했다고 전했다. 알리바바 주가는 중국 규제 리스크로 연초 대비 약 32% 하락한 상태였고, 그는 이를 중국 시장이 세일 중이라는 신호로 해석했다. 그는 중국 최고 기업들이 미국 최고 기업들보다 싸다고 평가했고, 중국 리스크와 성장 둔화에도 중국은 무시하기엔 너무 크다고 보았다. 다만 개인 투자자가 중국 기업을 직접 고르는 것은 위험하며, 국가에 대한 이해가 필요하다고 덧붙였다. 멍거는 BYD에 대해 2008년 최초 매수 이후 큰 성과를 냈고 당시 가치가 58억 달러라고 언급했다. 또한 데일리저널이 잭 마 관련 규제 이후 알리바바 지분을 매입한 사실을 언급했다. 중국 정부가 기업을 국유화할 가능성은 매우 낮다고 보았고, 잭 마가 정부를 공개적으로 비판한 것은 오만했다고 평가했다. 중국이 시장경제 요소를 받아들여 빈곤을 빠르게 줄였다고 높이 평가했으며, 1978년 1인당 GDP 약 300달러에서 현재 약 9,500달러로 성장했다고 설명했다. 중국의 전체주의적 방식이 극심한 빈곤 탈출에 필요했을 수 있으므로 서구가 중국에 자국 방식을 강요해서는 안 된다고 주장했다. 요약하면 멍거는 중국 주식, 특히 알리바바와 BYD에 대해 장기적으로 낙관적이며, 규제 리스크보다 저평가 매력을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
the latest scc filing shows the firm increased his stake in alibaba by 83 percent last quarter shares though of baba keep in mind have tumbled about 32 percent year-to-date due to regulatory threats in china and so while others rushed for the exit monger doubled down in baba with at least 40 million earlier this year which isn't really the norm as he normally invests in american companies so does that mean the chinese market is on sale think about rebalancing to areas that have gone on sale china has gone on sale that despite regulatory risks and slow growth china is just too big to ignore and its stocks are too undervalued to pass up the monger family has invested in china some substantially and i did it because i respected the man who was going to do the investing and it all looked inexpensive to me and the companies looked very strong to me and of course this worked out i've done way better than i had any right to expect does it still look that way when you look to the chinese markets i think that the best companies in china are cheaper than the best companies in the united states the concern other investors might have before they they follow in that way is that they don't know that much about chinese companies and maybe they're just generally afraid of china is there a reason that they may have some i mean you have people who are guiding you who understand china well if someone was trying to do this on their own would it be a little more dangerous sure it really helps to understand the country you're operating in of course all right there's my that's a stupid question moment you would not necessarily advise others to do this i guess is my point for investors who are sitting at home watching i don't think it would be all that hard for any smart person to find four or five great companies in china to invest in you and your your friend lee liu have been very optimistic with respect to investing opportunities in china byd has performed spectacularly for berkshire since its initial purchase in 2008 and is currently valued at 5.8 billion dollars the daily journal recently bought a large position in alibaba after founder jack ma had been reprimanded by the chinese communist party in ma's other company ant was not allowed to proceed with its ipo what are your current thoughts on china and whether the communist leaders will allow businesses with strong leadership to flourish in decades to come well i think that the chinese government will allow businesses to flourish it was a one of the most remarkable things that ever happened in the history of the world when a bunch of committed communists just looked at the prosperity of places like singapore and said the hell with this we're not going to stay here in poverty we're going to copy what works and they changed communism they just accepted adam smith and added it to their communism and that now we have communism with chinese characteristics which is china with a free market with a bunch of billionaires and so forth and they made that shift they deserve a lot of credit warren and i are not quite as good at that as changing our minds in many cases yeah and and that was a remarkable change coming from such a place and of course it's worked like gangbusters it had this enormous growth in the average income of the average chinese they've lifted 800 million people out of poverty fast and it there was never anything like in the history of the world so my hat is off to the chinese and i think they will continue to allow people to make money they've learned it works the chinese i love what the guy said in the first place i don't care whether the cat is black and white as long as it catches mice that's my kind of talk mr munger is a champion of chinese stocks how concerned is he about chinese government interference as seen recently with ant financial alibaba and mr jack ma what for example is to stop the chinese government from simply deciding one day to nationalize byd well i consider that very unlikely and i think jack mau was very arrogant to be telling the chinese government how dumb they were and how stupid their policies were and so forth considering their system that is not what he should have been doing and no i don't i don't i don't think that i i think the chinese have behaved very very shrewdly in managing their economy and they've gotten better results than we have in managing our economy and and i think that that will probably continue and sure we all love the kind of civilization we have i'm not saying i want to live in in in china i prefer the united states but i do admire what the chinese have done how can you not do it nobody else has ever taken a big country out of poverty so fast and so long and what i see in china now just staggers staggers me there are factories in china that are just absolutely full of robots and are working beautifully they're no longer using peasant girls to beat the brains out of our little shoe companies in america they are joining the modern world very rapidly and they're getting very skillful at at operating gdp per capita in china was 600 in 1978 the year deng xiaoping took over it was 300.
today it hovers around 9 500. never before in the history of mankind have we seen such a rapid eradication of poverty pulling approximately 800 million people out of destitution you are on record as a zealous fan of the chinese work ethic and confucian values system as we can see from the deteriorating u.s relationship with china the western world does not understand china what can we do to increase knowledge understanding and appreciation of the chinese civilization well it's natural for people to think their own civilization and their own nation is better than everybody else but everybody can't be better than everybody else you're right china's economic record among the big nations is the best that ever existed in the history of the world and that's very interesting a lot of people assume that since england led the industrial revolution and always and had free speech early that free speech is required to have a booming economy as prescribed by adam smith but the chinese have proved you don't need free speech to have a wonderful economy they just copied adam smith and left out the free speech and it worked fine for them as a matter of fact it's not clear to me that china would have done better if they'd copied every aspect of english civilization i think they would have come out worse because their position was so dire and the poverty was so extreme they needed very extreme methods totalitarian methods if you will to get out of the fix they they were in so i think what china has done was probably right for china and that we shouldn't be so pompous as to be telling the chinese they ought to behave like us because they like ourselves because we like ourselves and our system it's entirely possible that our system is right for us and their system is right for them
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