저자: BunnyStocksUp · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리 등 대형 투자자들의 공매도 베팅을 근거로 시장 바닥은 아직 멀었다는 경고성 영상이며, 테슬라·애플 중심 하락 시나리오를 제시함. 시장 전망: 발언자는 현재 S&P500이 약 20% 하락해 약세장에 진입했다고 보며, 일부 펀드매니저가 주장한 지수 추가 하락(약 2배 하락 가능성)에 대해서는 그 정도는 아니라고 봄. 다만 시장이 예상보다 훨씬 낮은 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 언급함. 마이클 버리 관련: 버리가 과거 2008년 같은 대폭락은 아니라고 보면서도 예상 밖 수준까지 내려갈 수 있다고 언급. 버리는 ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK) 하락에 베팅했다가 애플 공매도 포지션으로 전환한 것으로 소개됨. 또한 버리가 테슬라 주가가 90% 폭락할 수 있다고 말했다고 인용하나, 발언자 본인은 80~90% 하락은 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 버리는 올해 말까지 테슬라가 주당 100달러 아래로 내려가면 특정 투자 방식의 시대가 끝날 것이라고 언급. 테슬라 기술적 분석: 2020년 3월부터 이어진 상승 추세선이 핵심 지지선이며, 현재 주가 약 755달러에서 이 추세선 이탈 여부가 중요하다고 봄. 추세선 이탈 시 530~542달러 수준, 추가 이탈 시 400달러 수준까지 하락 가능성을 언급. 반면 반등 시 845달러까지 상승도 놀랍지 않다고 함. 애플 기술적 분석: 애플이 S&P500을 떠받치고 있어 애플 하락이 지수 하락의 핵심 요인이라고 봄. 애플이 주당 120달러까지 하락하면 의미 있는 수요 구간이 형성될 것으로 보며, 그 이하 수준은 공포 조장을 피하기 위해 언급하지 않겠다고 함. 애플과 테슬라는 상관관계가 높아 애플 하락 시 테슬라도 동반 하락할 것으로 예상. 투자 전략: 테슬라 분할 매수는 가격 자체보다 단기 하락 가능성에 대비한 현금 확보와 마진콜 회피가 중요하다고 강조. 공매도 세력이 포지션을 청산하기 시작하는 것을 시장 바닥 신호로 제시하며, 그 전까지는 매수보다 관망을 권고하는 취지. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 단기적으로 약세를 전망하며, 현재 가격대에서 테슬라 장기 분할매수는 매력적이라는 입장을 유지.
다듬은 글
hey what's going on everyone we have a lot to discuss in today's video i first want to talk about what michael bury has recently said about where he thinks the overall equities market will be heading and let me just tell you it is not the best and to add on to that you also have bill gates who is directly shorting against tesla stock so you have two very wealthy individuals and it seems like they know more than the average retail trader and so that is the problem we have right now a lot of people think that this is the bottom and in my opinion i do not think that it is because not only is michael brewery but also bill gates showing the market but you even have elon musk himself talking about how a recession is probably likely now i know this already sounds like a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt but let me just tell you these are amazing prices to start dollar cost averaging into tesla i'm pretty sure a lot of people have dollar cost average way above that price it honestly does not matter that doesn't eliminate the fears that i have in the short term for the entire equities market right and this includes apple and also tesla and the sm500 so let's go ahead and now talk about what he has been saying so michael brewery who is famously known for his role in the big short book and the movie appeared to raise the possibility of a stock market crash similar to 2008 i do not think that this will be a stock market crash similar to 2008 although i will say that i think we will go to levels where a lot of people are not expecting um and also if you guys want to try to time this market bottom i know that is not the best thing to do but because i do think we are closer to a market bottom than a market top make sure you guys subscribe or continue watching these videos because that is going to be the goal from that one on this channel to try to find this market bottom and time it so we can start deploying cash at optimal levels and you guys probably have already heard the saying bull markets are created by bear markets so after spare market is over hopefully that will start a lot of these new trend lines all the way up and create some new all-time highs which i think will undoubtedly include tesla but for right now we have to deal with some near-term problems so again he stated that and this is a quote by michael brewery as i said about 2008 it is like watching a plane crash michael berry wrote it hurts and it's not fun and i'm not smiling and also we have michael bury's comments which came after a famed fund manager jeremy earlier this month who said that he expects the s p 500 and the nasdaq to fall about double from recent levels now this is interesting because the nasdaq has already fell about 30 and the sm500 is officially in bear market territory in other words has already fell about 20 or even more than that and so default double from these levels this was made on may 25th of 2022 so very very recent and they have fund managers stating that it could fall even more and not just a little bit more but a lot more um i don't think that it will be this bad but i'll discuss that when i talk about the charts and then to add on to all of this we have michael burris fund who made a big bet against kathy wood's arc innovation atf in other words he capitalized on the etf falling down i believe he closed out of this position and initiated a new position against apple stock and this is extremely important because apple is currently holding the market and yes you guys did hear that right i think the only thing stopping in the s 500 from going to about three thousand or three hundred dollars per share is apple stock and then on top of this you have michael brewery who states hebrew takes tesla stock could plummet by ninety percent and this is a direct quote by michael brewery so he said can tesla fall eighty to ninety percent well after 2000 many high flyers did including amazon so amazon fell 95 two decades ago changed its whole business and thrived much later can this happen new chestnut right now i do not think so going 80 90 i just do not think that would be happening um and so basically that is the entirety of this article it talks about how microbiary predicts tesla could fall by 90 this year and then this is also another quote so he said test it below 100 per share by later this year will not crash the system however he does state that it would trigger the end of an era for a certain type of investing so now that we've gotten the articles out of the way it's time to start talking about the technical analysis for tesla and also where i think tesla is going to be heading in the future i drew these trend lines way back and this goes all the way back to march of 2020 and the top of the trend line goes all the way to about november of 2021 so pretty recent however i will say that we decided to go right at this march of 2020 trendline and to think right we're going all the way back so tesla is having a huge discount right now now the current question is whether this trend line will break and is this actually sustainable i do not think it will be because again although we decided to have a pretty decent balance from right about 630 dollars per share it is currently at 755 dollars per share can we go at the top at this channel at about 1131 well even if it does it doesn't matter unless it actually breaks over here right so if it actually has a break and that's what's really important about these bear market rallies and yes i do think that we are currently in a bear market because if we take a look at the spx or the sme 500 and then we go to all sm500 right so this 500 has fell about 20 which officially puts it in the bear market and on top of that let's go ahead and take a look at apple stock so aapl until we have an inflection point where a lot of these individuals who are capitalizing off of these stocks falling down once they start to change their sentiment and start closing their position don't even worry about buying it just worry about them closing the position first once we start having that happen i think that is going to be a signal of okay this might be an ideal or optimal time to start buying some of these stocks and as for my opinion i think that we will start to see these levels form once apple reaches 120 per share can apple fall more than that it definitely can but i'm not going to start talking about levels below 120 because i first want to see can we actually go to that level first of all and will this be a demand zone where people actually want to buy apple and you know we might have a rally from this level and this could definitely be a sign of strength but until we get there i'm not going to start talking about lower levels because i think that that'll just create more fear and the markets which we don't need right now and so you guys can probably already see why this is going to be dangerous for tesla right so if apple does go to 120 per share which would help michael bury what is going to happen to tesla stock well because the portfolio allocation of apple is high in the sp 500 i think that what is going to happen to tesla is the same right it's pretty correlated together so if apple falls down so does tesla and that would mean that this trend line going all the way back to march of 2020 would break and i think that tesla may end up seeing the 500 i would say 30 per share level or even lower now because tesla's upswings and downswings are much more volatile i would say for right now the level would be 530 but it could go right below that in an instant right so if i were to draw this level i would say where would be 530 that would be somewhere over here and this would actually be 542 not 5 30.
but over here and if we break that then it could immediately go to the 400 per share level and that'll be absolutely insane but michael brewery has yet to close his position and also bill gates so when you have all these people betting against tesla apple and a lot of other stocks and stocks continue to decline it will not stop until the short sellers start closing out their positions now i want to end this video on two notes the first one being again it would not be surprising if tesla decided to rebound from this level and continue this uptrend all the way to 850 per share right 845 right that would not be surprising whatsoever my last note is how these are amazing prices for tesla as long as there's some sort of plan as to how people are going to accumulate their sets of shares it doesn't matter whether you buy it at 900 or even with the current price 740 because what you don't want to happen is that let's say the market does fall and tesla goes to 500 it doesn't matter if you bought slots 750 850 1050 but you don't want to happen is there to be a margin call or there not to be enough cash for you to buy more of the tesla dip so with that being said everyone thanks again for watching and i'll see you guys in my next video you
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