저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 자사 5대 파괴적 혁신 플랫폼(유전체 시퀀싱, 로봇공학, 에너지 저장/전기차, 인공지능, 블록체인)을 중심으로 장기 투자하며, 페이스북·넷플릭스 등 기존 FANG 중심 투자와 차별화된다고 밝혔다. 유전체학은 가장 과소평가된 분야로 제시됐다. 질병 치료가 가능해지고 있으며, 크리스퍼 유전자 가위 특허 보유 3개사(Editas, Intellia, CRISPR Therapeutics)의 합산 시가총액이 50억 달러 수준에 그쳐 저평가돼 있다고 주장했다. 그는 이 회사들이 치료제 로열티를 받으면 2000년대 닷컴 버블 시기 기술기업 수준의 2000~3000억 달러 가치가 될 수 있다고 비교했다. 다만 Illumina는 기반 기업으로 언급됐을 뿐 방향성 예측은 없었다. 주식 선별 방식에 대해서는 지수 투자는 과거 성과에 기반해 가치 함정(value trap)이 늘고 있어 위험하다고 봤다. 은행·에너지·자동차·제약 기업이 변화하지 않으면 큰 위기를 맞을 것이라 했고, 자율주행 트럭 군집 주행이 철도를 대체할 수 있다고 전망했다. ARK의 전략은 단기 관점의 시장과 달리 5년 시계로 차익을 노리는 것이라고 설명했다. 테슬라에 대해서는 장기 시장점유율 전망을 상향했다. 기존 모델에서는 2018년 점유율의 약 3분의 1을 잃을 것으로 봤으나, 2021년 전 세계 전기차 점유율이 17~18%로 오히려 늘었다고 언급했다. 그는 테슬라 주가가 이제 시작 단계이며, 이는 테슬라 자체에 대한 투표라기보다 기존 완성차 업체들이 전환에 실패하고 있다는 신호라고 주장했다. 특히 BMW 등 기존 업체가 배터리 전략에서 뒤처지고 있다고 평가했다. 전기차 가격 전망으로는 향후 18~24개월 내 동급 전기차 가격이 내연기관차보다 처음으로 낮아지고, 배터리 원가 하락 곡선을 따라 계속 하락할 것이라고 전망했다. 리스크 조건은 이번 영상에서 구체적으로 제시되지 않았으며, 위 전망은 전부 장기(5년) 관점이다. 출연자 전망 요약: 테슬라 장기 상승 기대(시장점유율 유지·확대), 크리스퍼 관련 기업 장기 재평가 기대, 기존 완성차 업체 하락 가능성 시사.
다듬은 글
what's the next facebook give me a tip well you're right those are trillion dollar or approaching trillion dollar companies and so we're very we don't own actually in our flagship fund uh any of the fang except for netflix uh because we are all about finding uh the next big thing so the next big things uh involve our five uh disruptive innovation platforms so dna sequencing robotics with collaborative robots uh energy storage electric vehicles think tesla artificial intelligence you can also think tesla on that but but you can talk think about every company when it comes to ai and then finally blockchain technology so we've had a lot of news on on all of them including blockchain technology and squares positioning in that space so we'll come back to tesla in a minute but first of all talk about genomics so genomics we think is the most underestimated and misunderstood of our disruptive innovation platforms and the reason is uh we have never been able to really cure disease now that we're able to isolate mutations through dna sequencing think illumina that's the foundational stock in the space we are able to understand where the programming errors in our genome are and with crispr gene editing increasingly we're beginning to believe we're going to be able to correct those programming errors i'm going to give you a comparison today versus the tech and telecom bubble if i had told you in the tech and telecom era that there would be three foundational stocks in the crispr cast 9 gene editing space they own the patents i would have told and that they'd get a 10 royalty probably on any therapy derived from crispr cast-9 they given that we're talking about curing disease here curing pediatric blindness curing sickle cell anemia beta thalassemia leukemia they probably would have accumulated to 200 to 300 billion dollars in market cap today the three stocks editos intelia and crispr therapeutics can barely manage to get to five billion dollars cumulatively this is so misunderstood uh and so we think it's again inefficiently priced i have sort of a practical question here i mean if somebody says okay we're gonna have facebook and we have everybody to communicate with each other and be friends i can sort of understand that do i need to be a biophysicist or something to understand this area i mean because that might be an interference with capital formation actually because i just don't understand it well enough to know whether to invest or not or which one to invest in it is a great question there is a lot of fear because of a lack of understanding and it also seems so complicated it does so one of uh at arc invest one of our missions of values is to educate and i think uh simon barnett our genomics analyst is going to start a program a series called simon says or something like that to actually break this down and help people understand it because it's so important so one of the things that strikes me as unique about your approach in your fund is that uh you're in you know you do stock selection and it's kind of out of fashion and everyone's macro and everyone's uh long s p and long treasuries we were just talking about the sort of end of this gram and out world of people looking at individual stocks is is there in your view is stock selection just have to be sort of reinvented so that it's not about oh this company trades it at eight p e and it should be at an eleven p e but really thinking much more deeper and long-term and cyclical and secular the way you're sort of looking at it thank you joe actually we think that two things are happening here post the tekken telecom bust and the 0809 meltdown there was an accelerated shift into benchmark investing passive investing benchmark sensitive investing to to lower risk that the risk that the portfolio managers and analysts were taking in the world we believe is evolving one of the most dangerous places to be in terms of the kinds of returns possible out there is in the indexes because they are being populated increasingly we believe by value traps they're cheap for a reason i mean if you look at whether it's banks energy auto companies are in massive trouble massive trouble pharmaceuticals if they don't change the way they're doing things even rails we think autonomous truck platoons are going to to take the place of rails or or be cheaper to transport uh transport uh to transport freight so uh anyone hewing to the benchmarks which are very backwards looking they're not about the future they are about what has worked uh we're all about what is going to work there's a second component to this and you raised it time horizon we're playing an arbitrage between we're arbitraging you know the the short-term time horizon that most investors and analysts have next year maybe quarter sometimes compared to our five-year time horizon and i can tell you with a straight face that if you give us five years that arc invest is a deep value manager you mentioned the car companies are in trouble uh there's one car company at least this week is not in trouble that's tesla you're invested in yes uh so explain tesla two i understand it's a really great car and it's really terrific it's really forward-looking if you look at the number of cars they make compared to the value of the company compared to any other company it's it's crazy well we just published a report with our again long-term forecast and um the numbers have gone up dramatically and yet and yet we think it's incredibly undervalued uh and the reason for that there there there are two assumptions that have changed with the the in the last couple of reports one our our bull case for tesla in our old model was that it would lose a third of its market share it has it had in 2018 17 global market share including china that it would lose as the tesla killers came into the market audi uh and uh porsche tycan and and jaguar well guess what its share increased last year to 18 years i think tesla could have 17 or 18 of the worldwide market when it's all electric vehicles is that what you're saying and if we're right if we are right this stock has only begun but that makes it sound it makes you think that this isn't actually a vote for tesla it's a vote in all these other established car companies completely to failing to make the crucial transition which they've known for several years they were going to have to make yeah can we really be pessimistic about the likes of bmw they're failing miserably failing miserably and in battery technology they're not writing down the consumer electronics cost curve which tesla decided to run down you know and and people made fun of them oh you're putting cell phone batteries at the bottom of the car cell phone batteries that blow up no they they chose lithium-ion pouch which is much more costly than tesla's consumer electronics batteries so if they want to compete with tesla they'll have to sell every electric vehicle at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business the reason this is going to happen is because within the next 18 months two years the price of an electric vehicle like for like categories is going to drop below that for a gas powered vehicle for the first time and it will continue to fall because we're riding down the battery cost curve you
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