저자: 마이클버리 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 풋옵션 거래량/시총 비율이 사상 최고 수준이라며 시장 바닥 신호일 수 있다고 보고, 마이클 버리의 인플레이션·시장 경고를 소개하는 내용이다. 시장 구조 주장: 풋옵션 거래대금이 시가총액 대비 역대 최고 수준이며, 2011년·2020년 유사 구간 이후 시장 바닥이 나타났다는 과거 패턴을 근거로 든다. 이는 과거 사례에 기반한 해석이며 향후 가격 방향 예측으로 명시되지는 않았다. 진행자 시장 인식: 대형 기술주와 소형주 모두 부진하며, 석유 등 일부 섹터만 예외라고 설명한다. 다만 종목별 목표가나 기간을 제시하지는 않았다. 마이클 버리 발언 인용: 1920년대 독일 초인플레이션 당시 투기 열풍을 언급하고, 인플레이션을 경고했지만 사람들이 듣지 않았다는 트윗을 소개한다. 과거 서브프라임 공매도 성공 사례와 그 후의 법적 압박 경험도 함께 소개한다. 캐시 우드 비교: 캐시 우드는 인플레이션을 인식했지만 지속 기간을 과소평가했다고 말하며, 혁신 투자 기조를 유지한다고 밝혔다. 진행자는 그녀의 주요 ETF 보유 비중 변화를 비교했다. 버리 포트폴리오 변화: 4분기 2021 기준 CVS 전량 매도, 머크·BMY 신규 편입(포트폴리오 약 25%), FNF 약 22.8% 비중 등 금융·헬스케어 중심 변화를 설명한다. 출연자 전망: 버리는 인플레이션과 시장 불안을 경고하는 입장이며, 캐시 우드는 혁신 기업 중심 유지와 인플레이션 장기화 가능성을 언급했다. 구체적 가격 목표나 기간별 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다. 리스크: 영상 자체가 과거 사례 해석과 투자자 심리 중심이어서 현재 매수·매도 신호로 보기는 어렵다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the channel everyone we have a lot to discuss about what michael bury or dr bury recently said in his positions regarding inflation the market all these sort of factors that are really allowing the market to just continuously drop and drop and drop and we know that the markets are falling because we see that net put value traded as a percent of market cap is at an all-time highs let's forget about the small craps let's forget about big tech let's forget about the equities that make up the s p 500 we know that the markets are not doing well right now regardless of what sector you're in unless it's probably oil or something like that because we have some macro trends market capitalization on the s 500 just phenomenal and we see if you decide to invest in the spy or sme 500 most likely they will decide to grow however the problem is when we have these peaks with the amount of put values being traded we definitely see some sort of choppiness meaning that there is no clear direction as to where we're headed are we going to continue going up or will we decide to fall even more and we see that again happening over here we just completely fell but you see how many people were betting against the market that is usually the time when yes there will be a little bit more choppiness no clear direction however that usually indicates some sort of a market bottom and we see it not once but actually twice and i'm sure that if we decide to go even further out in time we can probably see these trends play out again and what do you notice in 2022 we are basically approaching that same level and if you forget about levels let's just focus on the actual value the value of the netpoint value traded in 2022 is pretty high if you ask me and we are comparing this all the way to just two years ago we all know what happened two years ago and if you go all the way back to 2011 this was not the most drastic falls however it kind of reminds you of what is happening right now look at the sm500 2022 and also 2011 and you see the values are almost of the same level but again i said don't worry about the levels just focus on the value the value themselves are pretty high if you compared to what has been normally happening and then as i just stated we all know what happened over here and i want to talk about this quote very quickly before we get into michael bury interviews and some of his more recent tweets because this individual stated that human nature never changes and in essence how this relates to the chart is that so many people are fearing the markets right now so many retail traders let's forget about the hedge funds even retail traders themselves are deciding to bet against the market right now because they just believe that within the next few weeks within the next few months things will not be okay and what's ironic about this though is that when so many people have so much fear i know you guys have probably heard this many times that's usually when even the hedge funds themselves they'll start buying in slowly and slowly and slowly i'm gonna try to stay away and limit the amount opinions i have in this video because again you guys need to hear what michael bury himself has been saying recently two of michael bury's tweets one of them stating for the german hyperinflation in the 1920s quote unquote everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market and volumes became such that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork if it's true just a little bit lower he also stated that people say i didn't warn last time i did but no one listened so i warned this time and still no one listens but i will have proof i warn and even in the interviews you guys are about to see later on in this video he said the same exact thing everyone thought he was crazy for betting against the markets even people that were his customers and very quickly let's compare the portfolio allocation between kathy wood and michael brewery the reason for this is because there's definitely a difference in sentiment and the question is who is going to be right who is going to be the one that has the correct thesis and obviously with such a thesis it really depends on time now kathy wood herself even had an interview today and she was talking about the horizon right the horizon for inflation that she was talking about she said she knew that inflation would come but she said that it has been here for quite a while even two years ago that's when she noticed inflation however she didn't think that it would last this long if you go to one of her most popular holdings let's see what she is doing this holding issue deciding to increase the position or decrease it we see that it has been increasing relatively right if we see february 7th of 2022 8.55 and then we rise to 8.65 not that much of a difference and keep in mind this is just one of her etfs and if we go to maybe another one over etfs let's see is this going to be consistent or not 10.07 versus let's go all the way back to maybe the beginning of january so beginning of january 11.19 very very interesting this may have to do with the fact that they were just rebalancing because maybe the price of tesla was higher around this time i'm gonna have to check on that in just a few moments but regardless that wasn't the point of today's video i'm just letting you guys know that there are definitely two different opinions going on in the markets and this is not just relative to kathy wood and michael brewery this is with retail traders themselves too some retail traders believe that the markets are going to go up after march because after march it's going to be one another one of those fomc meetings with jerome powell and then other people are stating this is actually going to continue until 2023 and 2024.
now if we take a look at michael brewery's portfolio allocations and what he has he used to have a lot of cvs but it seems as though he has sold all of his cvs very very interesting 200 000 shares just gone and we see he has a stock in healthcare bmy and this is three 300 000 new shares uh percent ownership right over here percent of portfolio 25 everyone a quarter of his portfolio just a little bit over a quarter in fact and we see ticker symbol fnf the finance industry 22.78 percent of portfolio all of these also were in the fourth quarter of 2021 and let's see it's new positions and i'm guessing yep it was the healthcare sector one the ticker symbol bmy along with all these other ones i just can't believe the changes in shares has been immediately the 300 thousand um the percent of portfolio again is also very surprising because it's just a quarter of the portfolio in general and let's see what he has closed out so closed out over here cvs again with along with all these other stocks let's see what it is attitude definitely ticker symbol bmy and basically we are seeing a repeat of what we saw previously so you can definitely see the shift in sentiment right you can see that he is not really betting on innovation as much as kathy would also like to know you guys opinions on whether you guys are still bending on innovation let me know in the comment section below because even in the interview kathy would have today she was stating that she is still betting on innovation and what has been going on in the market right now is not really interfering her decisions what she's deciding to increase her position on or decrease all it is doing is making her more consolidated consolidation is when you decide to buy really the best of the best stocks and for her because she is so centered around innovation she is trying to pick out the best of the best in a time like this where a lot of the equities are just completely down some of them split in half even shopify just immediately from i think it was one thousand one hundred dollars this year to now run seven hundred dollars a year i took a little bit long to get to this point but here are the interviews that michael brewery previously on and it's pretty interesting to see how all this has played out because in terms of time remember everyone in the previous tweets we just saw he was talking about inflation in 2021 and lo and behold what are we dealing with right now i put my money where my mouth was at its peak i was short 8.4 billion dollars worth of subprime mortgages and certain financial companies the most we could lose was less than 100 million dollars thanks to credit derivatives and at first we did lose it was a negative carry trade investors business partners and even employees questioned the strategy lawsuits were threatened our distress was reported in the press and wall street looked to squeeze our short besides all this i had to stomach what i knew was coming a tragic end to the follies this was not fun i did not tap dance to work but the firm survived we turned the tables on wall street and i became the one percent in a way i never imagined when i was sitting where you sit today i had bet against america and won in 2010 i published an op-ed in the new york times posing what i thought was a valid question of the federal reserve congress and the president i saw the crisis coming why did not the fed never did any member of congress any member of government for that matter reach out to me for an open collegial discussion on what went wrong or what could be done rather within two weeks all six of my defunct funds were audited the congressional financial crisis inquiry commission demanded all my emails and lists of people with whom i had conversed going back to 2003.
and a little later the fbi showed up a million in legal and accounting costs and thousands of hours of time wasted all because i asked questions
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