저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 9.5% 급락 등 반도체 셀오프는 성장 우려에 따른 것이며 수요 펀더멘털은 불변이라고 주장. 반독점 조사 우려에도 엔비디아 독점적 지위는 유지된다고 봄. 아이폰16 수요 호조(출하 9천만대 이상)와 AI 슈퍼사이클을 근거로 제시. 9월 대선·관세 리스크로 인한 단기 변동성은 인정하나 조정은 매수 기회로 보고, 2025년까지 기술주 상승을 전망.
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stock down 9 and a half% yesterday lighter on its feet this morning $278 billion of a Wipeout why what was the trigger or was it just some kind of an August Redux yeah look I think it's just there's just fears in terms of growth not just from Nvidia but I think across semis and that's why you just saw Disaster Day you know for for just the whole semi food chain but but I just look at it has anything changed and look that's why we're in Asia the next few weeks nothing's changed from a demand perspective demand continues to way out strip Supply and then you look at earnings I think it was sort of muted reaction I think we take a step back and this is a story where the demand continues to ramp up from an AI perspective black all delay you know put to rest I think the these sell offs in my opinion are buying opportunities not the time to panic I I I just Wonder Dan if an Anti-Trust probe if that escalating from the doj this subpoena if it hits your registry of concern at all for NVIDIA yeah look I think you have to put in the context of broader Tech I mean Apple of course Google you know have another trial next week I mean that is just sort of the tone in the Beltway I mean we are just going to see some of those drum rolles look we're not too concerned about this for NVIDIA I think just because when you actually look at what's happened here from an execution the reason that theyve essentially dominated is just because how Stellar the execution has been and how they've just been so far ahead AMD and others will ultimately get into this sort of race but I just view this as more of a scarier headline than the reality also in the context of what's happening in big Tech Nvidia is just part of the club that continues to be part of that pressure Beltway versus big Tech part of the accusation is that it's for suppliers to switch it penalizes buyers um what is the worst case scenario here is it a chip a mini chip or fissure in the moat the grand moat around Nvidia look the moat is what Jensen and and nid have created right and that's that's not going to change and I can always take the other side okay doj is looking into this you know rather look into this give some sort of all clear so it's not a concern I mean look what we we've dealt with with the likes of Apple Google Amazon some others for you know for a number of years but I don't think it changes that and I think the reality is they are the only game in town and nothing's changing that from an innovation perspective when you talk about a trillion dollars of AI cap backs over the coming years where Nvidia is going to get a significant piece of that in just this political climate though Dan where you have two candidates and their vice presidents who almost feel like it's a competition of who can have the most populist policies and then you look at something like Google getting slapped for antitrust violations too is this a political climate that maybe you need to take a second look at some of these big Tech names that we thought were safe from antitrust regulation and scrutiny and maybe this time is different yeah look I think it is a little different I I mean look Apple we'll see that over you know the next call 12 to 18 months but I think after that Google win from the doj I think the climate does change a bit but I think the reality look we've talked about it on the show strong have gten stronger I mean you know you talk with your previous guyses about mag s and big Tech that's not going to change in other words big Tech are going to get stronger and I'd argue with AI Revolution that's actually accelerates and we'll see next week you know when Apple launches iPhone 16 so so to me it is changing of the climate but I think it just speaks to just Tech is just going to become a bigger and bigger piece and big Tech even through m&a I think that's going to be the biggest variable FTC con where that all goes depending on political climate you know I think in it's all added to to some of the AA as once once September hits going into the elections I think that's also some of the selloff that we've seen just some of the nervousness going to to the fall well Dan you're in Asia at the moment part of that part of that trip will involve I presume seeing people that feed into this supply chain two things I want to know about is how do they see demand holding up you got the iPhone launch coming up and secondly how much conversation are they having around the political change here the risk of new tariffs towards Asia yeah great questions mean what look one the reason you there's second trip to Asia in the last month got to see where demand is right I mean you're not going to find it in the spreadsheets or 10th four of New York city office building look from an iPhone perspective I mean units iPhone 16 originally started 80 84 million it's above 90 million and that's bullish in terms of what we believe Supply chains indicating in terms of what will be an AI driven super cycle with iPhone 16 and and I still believe an underestimated demand cycle that's going to play out for Apple but then you know you talk about just broer demand demand continues to tick up not tick down and I think the tariffs and some of the US try to call Tech war that is a worry and I think that's a big probably biggest question from investors that we meet in terms of going to November you know what does each candidate mean in terms of you know the quote unquote AI trade in terms of trump haris are the companies taking actions now Dan to try to protect themselves in that case or or are they waiting to see the result of November I think it's results and look the reality is there's a limit amount they can do because of just where just the vast vast majority is coming out of you know China and coming out of Taiwan coming out of the region and that's not going to change overnight but you know to to what I think we saw with the sell off it just speaks to some of the broader words nothing changed fundamentally yeah you know we continue to think valuation these Tech names numbers will continue to move higher but it's some of these White Knuckles going into September going into the election that I think you're seeing you know some of the softness in big Tech but I don't view it as anything more than that I think a lot of these names continue to move higher into year in 2025 despite obviously I'll call it a white Knuck or an ad period look we know you're an evangelist of of of Nvidia Jensen Wang we we understand that that position do I now need to look at my investment in Nvidia as two portions one is a long-term investment and the other portion of my participation in investment is get is trade 10% swings 5% swings it it it it it's split in two now no doubt look we've said you're going to have to put seat Bel on in Tech I mean this is not going to be smooth ride Pilot's going to be coming on saying turbulence put on the seat belts okay so the point we are going to see that and I think you have to be ready but also that creates the opportunity as well just like we saw on Black Monday in Tokyo and what we saw yesterday today and potentially over the coming weeks that creates the opportunities but there will be volatility but I think in the end they growth scares and I think we look at these as more opportunities rather than the structural change you know as many of the Bears are coming out of hibernation mode
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