저자: GavinBaker · 외국인
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Gavin Baker는 엔비디아가 CoreWeave 등 neocloud에 투자한 것은 매출 부풀리기가 아니라 hyperscaler 편중을 줄여 구매자 분산과 교섭력 확보를 위한 전략이라고 설명. 매출채권 급증은 Blackwell의 제품 전환(수랙당 무게·전력 증가, 액랭 방식)에 따른 일시적 현상이며 7월 분기 이후에도 계속되면 우려 요인이라고 봄. 중국의 GPU 수요가 여전히 강하고 과잉 투자(overbuild) 우려는 시기상조라는 입장. CoreWeave IPO는 부채 부담과 Microsoft 매출 편중(60%+)이 리스크로 언급됨.
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billion under management and a lot to talk about with you gb1 good to have you gb1 is Here solo Doo core weave IPO happening soon uh by the time you get this and Nvidia you were there at Nvidia you were the one analyst Gavin that Jensen pulled up you're loved by Jensen what's it like to be loved by Jensen tell us every well so first he did um there was uh Alfred from was from Square mhmm and then they had a a nice sside guy whose name is escaping me at the moment but it is technically true I was the only public Equity investor on the buy side that Jin Jensen asked I've known Jensen for 25 years he's he's kind of the same guy he ever was like just maybe slightly calmer Gavin can I ask you like all this stuff where they talk about the balance sheet questions that some folks have about Nvidia some of the accounts receivable issues and stuff is there any legitimacy to those issues the round tripping like what's the what's the real story of someone that that peers into that p&l and understands it yeah so we'll I guess maybe take them in reverse order I really don't think like if if Nvidia had not not put any money into cor weave not put any money into kind of other of these neoc clouds I don't think it would have impacted their revenues at all at all they would have sold more to meta and more to more to meta more to Amazon more to Microsoft so the reason they did it is even 3 years ago it was a very stable three player oligopoly from the cloud computing players in Amazon Google and Microsoft and if you're Nvidia that's not great to have just three big customers those big clouds particularly in 2023 when there was such a rush to get gpus they each kind of want to do their own kind of custom version of an Nvidia server and Nvidia by giving kind of like a standard reference design which someone like cor weave bought to cor weave you got gpus in the market a lot faster and when you use invidious reference design it's generally smoother and easier to stand them up and so the big three kind of cloud computing you know hyperscalers they're incremental share of Revenue went down and that was nothing but good for NVIDIA because they now have kind of a more fragmented base of buyers who have less power over them but what does that mean Gavin when like the accounts receivable jumps from a billion five or so to like 5 a half billion year-over-year is that concerning or that's just business so look it's never good but if you think Nvidia has gone through the biggest product transition in history in terms of Hopper you know this is a business doing tens of billions of dollars at scale there's never been a product transition like this in the history of semiconductors going from Hopper to Blackwell you know kind of the 2022 generation GPU to this one the only precedent for this on planet Earth is the iPhone and there's something called the Osborne effect which is you know when Apple comes out with new iPhone for the three months before nobody buys the new iPhone and I think the only reason Nvidia was able to grow through this product transition is because of reasoning models like deep seek which are just so compute hungry and this product transition does come back to the days receivables the cume receivables now is like23 billion yeah it's never good when accounts receivables go up but if this is the most understandable time for it to happen in a product refresh cycle you're saying yeah and because a hopper server you know it's a rack it's whatever it is 7 ft High it weighs 1,000 lb it consumes 60 Kow which is 60 American ohes and it's air cooled so you cool those gpus and the biggest problem with gpus one of the biggest is they melt you cool it with air Blackwell weighs 3,000 lb so three times as much the rack you know it's 8 ft tall maybe 5T deep or 4T deep 3,000 lb and it consumes 120 KW so twice as much power and roughly kind of the same footprint three times as much weight and it's liquid cooled so this is like an iPhone upgrade cycle you know it was like it's still a pain that we went from you know lightning to USBC you know I'll grab a cord and it'll be lightning instead of USBC this is like an iPhone upgrade cycle where to get the new iPhone not only do you have to change your connectors you have to put in a new generator you have to put in a new boiler and a whole house humidification system you know to kind of make it work so it's a Monumental product transition and I think that is a lot of why the receivables went up you know they're recognizing Blackwell Revenue you know while it was still kind of getting into customers hands um if that Trend continues past the July quarter then I would say hey that's reason for concern but this is a very understandable time for that to happen from my persp so basically the summary is AR accounts receivable builds as you go through this very complicated product transition but then at some point it Peaks and then you start to work through all of it and it moves off balance sheet basically gets recognized and you move forward and so then that AR should shrink and just to clarify that that's accounts receivable that's the money owed to you by customers for the audience who might have a question what they are exactly and the reason they're not collecting it is because they haven't delivered it I mean the accounting gets very complicated with these systems but yes I mean they have delivered it and they recognize the revenue but maybe the customer is saying hey we're not going to pay you until X you know until we get them plugged in and working I mean who knows what it is got it because it's a new thing IAL to have accounts receivable it's just that here the accounts receivable have gone up more than sales and that's just a function of the complexity of this product transition the other part of what I would say is the first part of what you're saying is very similar to what Intel did to scale their chip dominance in the 80s and 90s with this Intel Inside program they didn't really need to do it probably in hindsight but it helped them support an ecosystem and it helped diversify their buyer base so that fewer people had power over them and so a lot of this quote unquote round tripping from your perspective is diversifying the ownership pool of Nvidia is what you're saying absolutely in sending Nvidia gpus to people who are adopting nvidia's reference architecture which they believe is the best architecture for those gpus whereas each hyperscaler has their own slight tweaks to that server um that hyperscaler does it so it looks more like their other servers but maybe doesn't run quite as well as the standard Nvidia reference architecture with all of their chips not just the Nvidia gpus but the Intel Insight analogy is interesting and not thought of that thank you Jamal well it he is definitely doing Keynotes like Intel did and trying to Brand the actual names of the units which is yeah it was interesting Pentium inside people would go and buy a computer does set have a Pentium and which Pentium does it have and now Apple's doing that same thing with the M4 you know series and people are actually asking questions like you know so there is something to it that maybe some portion of the consumer base wants to know what's inside and and doesn't cost much to brand since we're here let's talk a little bit about the cor weave IPO cor weave is going to go public on Friday we tape on Thursday so when you listen to this episode you will have the actual data on what happened with their IPO they're going to raise 1.5 billion they're a neocloud neocloud means not just cloud computing but a new Cloud thus Neo and this company has really been growing quickly it was reported they wanted to raise 2 billion and I guess they stepped it down to 1.5 billion at a $23 billion valuation they had 2 billion in Revenue last year so they're up 8X and they've got a lot of debt that's the other issue with cor weave that people note almost 8 billion in debt and one customer Microsoft accounts for over 60% of their revenue always a bit of a a red flag there as Troth mentioned Nvidia accounts for 15% of their revenue and they own 6% 6% seems small enough to not make a difference so Gavin I guess what do you make of this company core weave and their timing what it says about the markets because hey this is the biggest IPO we've had in a bit I think maybe the last ones that were notable were Reddit last year and a couple of other companies got out obviously stripe hasn't gotten out so is this a major Milestone or are they going out because they have to go out because of all this debt and then this is all against maybe a backdrop of did we overb build and are these language models going to require as much Hardware uh as we thought last year so we're definitely not overbuilt yet like since deep seek came out like what has happened since deep SEC car1 came out as China is buying every GPU they can one of the largest Chinese server manufacturers warned last night that there's about to e
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