저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 판매 부진과 브랜드 악화는 일시적 노이즈이며, 자율주행·옵티머스가 핵심 가치라는 주장. 설문 기준 테슬라 오너 중 5% 미만만 브랜드 재고려, 판매 감소의 10~15%만 브랜드 문제로 추정. 지금이 세대적 매수 기회이며 목표 2조 달러 시가총액 제시. 트럼프 규제완화 베팅과 머스크의 DOGE 활동을 긍정 요인으로 봄.
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I mean to some I think this selloff is going to be an opportunity I think years from now it's a generational opportunity because it's my view I get you in terms of all the the frustration noise the Doge the distractions the brand issues even some of the sales numbers that we've seen Europe China I think it's going to be short live I mean my view is they have probably from a technology perspective in terms of autonomous terms of the lower cost vehicle and where where I see things over the next 12 to 18 months I think they're actually going to go in to their biggest part of their technology cycle that they've had maybe forever maybe in the last decade does that require Elon to distance himself from the brand or recommit himself to the brand look I think this is one where I continue to believe the bet for the Ages was musk bet on Trump and because of autonomous deregulatory and I believe autonomous is worth ultimately trillion dollars loan to the ultimate story from a brand perspective look they're we think about 10 to 15% maybe the sales declin is related to some of the brand issues but based on all of our survey work we think only about less than 5% of Tesa holders today so Tesla owners will ultimately think twice potentially from a brand perspective because of M so that's still pretty limited relative to where I view actually the whole growth opportunity what about the whole distraction I mean he's always had a lot of jobs and a lot of CEO roles and so this has always been a constant question but now that he's spending so much time in Washington with the president you know working on Doge does that make you wonder about his running it yeah look we went through similar things when it came to Twitter act I mean we've gone through other situations as we've talked about I believe this is something where 3 6 months from now I think you'll see him a lot more dialed in Tesla in terms of as we go into FSD as we go into autonomous I also think you know perception is reality and I get that but from all the work that we've done talking people at Tesla I actually think he is driving a lot of the the bigger initiatives at Tessa despite the view that he's basically 110% into Doge and that's where all of the time where do you come up with this 5% number I only ask that in terms of people who might change because you know typically I think it's fair to say his customer has been sort of Center left let's say they're an environmentally focused Republicans perhaps not as much so at least in certain parts and so less likely to buy one I don't know you know the journal today the story they cite a lot of people it's anecdotal saying I'm going to give it up at the end of the lease where do you come up with 5% yeah I mean for us a thousand house owners I mean it it's actually it's less than 5% you did a survey of so so to me of a thousand customer it's and I I could also tell you this is something is I've talked to others at dealerships where whether it's in Europe you know what we've seen even in China and what what I believe we're going to see in the US I get the brand worth it is a dark time right now for Tessa bu but to me it is not the time to head for the Hills this is actually time to double down the reason we add to the top pick was I think we look out 6 12 months now I think this is ultimately the stock is a double right over the next but not on cars though right is it on Optimus what's it on I think 90% the value is going to be autonomous and Optimus driven I I continue to I think autonomous itself is worth more value than all Tesla today and I just think as we've gone through many periods despite the frustration over the years that has always been the opportunity and I just think right now we are going into what could be actually the biggest golden path from musk and Tessa despite right now what feels like very like a white knle moment just bad news after bad news you're right there have been those moments in the past and the stock has has recovered uh Dan we got to keep it a little tight today it's good to see you thanks for coming Dan I there's definitely nervousness in terms of tariffs and what that's going to mean but I actually believe it's really about demand I mean demand is more robust when it comes to chips AI Revolution Nvidia than it was 4 months ago model out of 5% China GDP as president shei talked about does that diffuse across the Pacific Rim look I think ultimately a stronger China more stous is more bullish for Apple it's more bullish for Tesla in terms of everything we see in as just how important those markets are Paul apple or Tesla first you make the call I'll go Tesla um tessla sales Fall 76% in Germany mus electioneering that's the Bloomberg headline we've seen that in other markets as well as an analyst who's follow this company from day one and you model out demand how frustrating is it for you to see some of these sales numbers and you're like we really don't need to see those kinds of sales numbers what's he doing look well first off I mean 70% of it is actually really more refreshes inventory year ofe com so the numbers sound scary why knuckle but the reality is probably about 10 to 15% of what's going on is what I'll call musk brand deterioration but no doubt look for we just continue to view it as the bet for the ages from MOS is on Trump deregulatory autonomous that continues to be that's the goal that's I think worth a trillion dollars have we gotten the market away from making cars so is it about AI is it about autonomous is it about Robo has he been successful in shiting the focus away from making cars look I think 90% of the value of Tesla going forward is Optimus autonomous rather than actual vehicle really wow is there evidence that's a revenue and profit reality for them or is that technology and Innovation it's a great questiony talk it's a look FSD today 15% of Teslas in terms of owners have full self-driving that gets to 50% numbers is there evidence that will get to 50% I believe I I got people Dan IES in New York cancelling Ubers that are Teslas they don't want to drive an Elon musk's car there's people putting black on the label Germany as Paul mentions is Europe rather it's falling off a cliff do you see a management away from a distracted musk going let's fix this or does it Fester I think as as wild in the near term I think it's contain in other words we're talking call it low single digit as a contained issue look is it a risk especially given you know what we're seeing in terms of some of the wars in in Europe and especially in the US but it all comes down to they are going to own the autonomous race in the US and I believe ultimately globally and for musk when you view even some of the brand worries and deteriorations I viewed almost as near-term noise relative to the longer term sort of value in the story how about just in terms of time spent part of the the the bullish cas for Tesla over the years was it's a bet on Elon Musk and that is a great bet to make I don't know what the number is but I'm it feels like 50 60 70 80% of his time and effort he that in Washington so does that in and of itself take away from well that perception's reality right so I think that is also playing into what's happening in the stock because the view is like he's not dialed in t just focused in DC but I do believe that that's not true I do believe he okay I got 400 back to 270 3 I got a trading range off Co that's banded between 200 and 300 to be polite do we have a do our Dan eyes price where you pull the cord I think I mean this thing at these levels and it get to the mid 200s right I believe it is generational in times of this type of sell off where I ultimately see Tessa over the coming year I think Tessa is going to be a $2 trillion Market e e e
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