저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 머스크가 전사 타운홀로 비전을 제시한 것을 첫걸음으로 평가하며, 테슬라 가치의 90%는 자율주행·로보틱스에 있어 전기차 세액공제와 무관하다고 주장. 주가 하락의 약 70%는 브랜드 훼손 우려이며 판매 감소 자체는 10~15% 수준이라고 진단. 과거 50% 낙폭 사례를 들어 이번 조정도 견딜 수 있다는 입장. 테슬라와 엔비디아를 차세대 10년의 최고 파괴적 기술주로 꼽음.
다듬은 글
you know obviously in the morning it was time for him to step up in other words you got leaders lead and during this period he needs to lead his as CEO of Tesla and I think that's been part of the frustration but I thought last night was a huge step forward in terms of this quickly put together all hands me because it's showing look it's showing employees shareholders what's the vision medium and longterm that continues to really be the Golden Goose and I think it was an important first step into ultimate of a balancing act for musk I I don't know Dan and and then he got right back on a plane and went back to DC you know I I don't know why him why him talking in front of his employees is such an important step and I I mean is it going to keep people from not buying Teslas yeah I mean like jul my view is it's a first step in other words the whole goal here is I'm not saying and they many shareholders for him to end dge it's about a balancing out so what else so what what if that's the first step what are the other steps what now needs to happen is that he needs to be more engaged with Tesla he ultimately need even when it comes thee whether it's you know very similar to you know how Linda stepped in in terms at X it's making sure that he is not front and center five times an hour when it comes to do I think that you know you talk about the political Firestorm and everything else the lightning rod I think part of navigating that it's that Balancing Act he's look he's going to get criticism okay and we understand that that doesn't necessarily change the brand itself if he starts to take a step back that's where I think there brand damage it's a it's a scar it's a bad bruise but it's not a permanent black eye Dan I have Cory Johnson here uh um so he last quarter 33% of free cash flow was from government uh subsidies um zero emission credits for most of it four quarters go is 100% of free cash flow do you start to look forward to a a federal government that's cutting unnecessary spending that is giving hundreds of has given hundreds of millions of dollars uh to Tesla not doing that anymore does that change your models in the future look I mean well look they've become much less Reliant right when it comes to the the credits but look I mean like you obviously rais a great point which has been there is that and it's our view that Tesla 90% of the value going forward is autonomous and Robotics which has nothing to do with EV tax credits to and and I think you know must talked about that in the All Hands meaning that's the future and and my view with Tesla continues to be what six times we've seen the stock sell off 50% Peak to trough I mean the Point we've been through many you know very tough White Knuckle times before this is obviously one that's even broader in terms of the political landscape doesn't change my view this and N Video the two best disruptive technology plays next decade Dan let me let me ask you a different question which some of your colleagues on the street it's interesting they'll say that all this talk of The Branding and the politics and the chainsaw and the maral Lago that is not really the issue you know I've heard some of your colleagues say the issue is much more fundamental it is a model y switch over it's a model y change over that is what's meaningfully impacting deliveries there's too much they say being placed on the whole branding debate what is your take on that yeah look I think it's I mean there's some truth to both look in terms of the actual numbers in terms of the sales numbers yeah I mean the brand issues have actually been called 10 to 15% of the actual decline cuz a lot of that is change over refresh and everything else but I think in terms of the stock 70% of the selloff is brand issue brand worries in terms of you know some of the the sort of Crisis that we're seeing and the reason is it's investors kind of looking forward in other words musk is Tesla Tesla is musk he is the brand and what he's created is is a company that's obviously you know globally in my opinion one of the best brands in the world it's making sure that the brand damage does doesn't spiral into something much more negative and I think that's that's how i' almost characterized those two issues I I mean I I have to wonder if it's already there Dan and I also you know I've been trying to think of other brand situations like this right you think about the the bud Budweiser situation you think about Target you think about some of the other recent examples and it has taken a long time in those cases and they haven't in some cases they have haven't even fully recovered right so um how how long especially since he doesn't actually seem to be trying to do anything to repair this damage in terms of the brand and the image I mean how long could we see the situation play out look Jo there's different ways to view it I mean some could argue and I we got to see how it plays out like do more Republican or Trump supporters ultimately then start to buy Teslas right in other words ones that weren't buying in now they're must supporters and that actually becomes a positive then it comes down to when you look at the brand I mean I think Tesla's brand is it's almost hard to compare CU you're going to have 10 million Teslas on essentially on the road going into next year and when it comes to autonomous the question is like when you start to actually have cyber cabs and we have what I believe one of every five cars autonomous do people not take that because it's it's musk because maybe something that happened a few years ago I'm going I'm fast forwarding to next you know one 2 3 years so I'm just saying I get the brand issues we've talked about it you know constantly over the last week but I the reason last night was important cuz you read the room it's the start of what I view as a balancing act and I think that's very important well we'll see if he starts to take those next steps then Dan thanks so much appreciate it thanks
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