저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 엔비디아가 AI 인프라 수요를 독점하고 있으며 딥시크 충격 이후 자본지출은 가속 중이라 주장. 테슬라는 DOGE 관련 정치적 리스크와 BYD 경쟁, 브랜드 훼손으로 최근 급락했으나 중장기 자율주행·로봇 기술 전망은 밝다고 봄. 머스크가 정치 활동을 줄이지 않으면 4~6주 내 추가 하락 위험이 있다고 경고. 기술주 전반의 반등 재료 부재와 지정학·관세 리스크를 지적. 목표가는 언급 없이 2~3년 내 2조 달러 시가총액 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
you look at underlying demand. I mean we talk about it's 15 to1 and all you know we have a team that's there and you're seeing demands accelerating and I think when you look at laying out physical AI Ruben autonomous robotics I mean this is essentially Jensen saying it's our world everyone else paying rent when it comes to AI and I just think this is a stock that's going to have a two in front of it over the next 9 12 months and and that continues to be the buying opportunity.
I think the street is sort of misinterpreting uh you what I believe is just so bullish in terms of the long-term outlook. Right now it has a one in front of it and it's down by close to 8% for the month of March. And Dan, I think for many people out there, it still hasn't recovered from the deepseek revelation of the last two months or so.
There seems to be some scarring here. What did the CEO do to counter some of those concerns in his address yesterday? I mean, I think it's really what Jensen's talking about is that every large company as they're looking whether it's GM to to across enterprises as they're looking to build out, there's only one chip doing that and it's Nvidia.
And I think that's something where I agree there is some still scarring from Deep Seek. I continue to view that ultimately that's bullish as the models get cheaper for the longer term sort of AI revolution thesis. But but I think you're seeing cap X accelerate. It's not diminishing. And I think that that's something that we'll see as it plays out over earnings.
But I think investors just need more and more confidence that there's not cracks, you know, really in this AI thesis. And I do I I think it's actually the opposite. Dan, let's zoom out. We've been talking today and and John raised this earlier that something else is going on. When you look beneath the surface of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, it really is the high-f flyers of last year that are leading the way lower and haven't been able to recover even when there's been positive news.
We talk about Nvidia and yesterday's surprising reaction to the conference, but also Tesla and how those shares have absolutely been pummeled. Can you understand what's behind some of the shift away from big tech and in particular why certain names have gotten so disproportionately beaten up? Yeah, I think Lisa there's three things.
I think first it's a perfect storm. I think it starts off one you don't know the rules of the game right in terms of geopolitical tariffs especially on the export controls. You're seeing a risk off I think globally on US stocks and I think that's something that we're seeing play out because investors are just worried that you're going to see some sort of cracks when it comes to export controls and tariffs related to chips.
two, I think you are seeing more play like the Babas, you're seeing that China tech trade, you're starting to see more diversification, worrying about sort of the growth concerns in terms of the macro. And the third is you said like look, you're not going to have true valuation support here. You need to show the actual growth.
And I and I think as we get into the next few quarters, that's the aha moment. I think similar as we've seen with Nvidia and Palunteer and others, but we're in this sort of gap here where every news is sort of gonna be viewed negatively and you just see such jitters. I I think it's probably as nervous as I've seen tech investors probably going back to some of the co days.
Dan, I hear you about Nvidia especially because the use case is pretty wide and they've been talking about how demand outstrips supply by some 15 to1 when you talk about some of the newer chips. Tesla's story is a little bit hairier and you talked about the moment of truth given some of the Doge involvement of Elon Musk, but we were talking earlier and this might be the even bigger development which is BYD presenting a real competitive uh edge to Tesla and frankly showing their dominance in the region.
How much is Chinese technological advancement the main competitive reason why Tesla shares could stay here and even go lower? Yeah, look, I mean, is that the biggest competition? Clearly. I mean, we've and look, we're in terms of everything BYD is doing, it's been super successful, but but this is not sort of a zero- sum game.
I mean, Tesla's going to be massively successful in China over the coming years. And and Lisa, when I think about autonomous robotics, physical AI, who's going to own that? It's Tesla. And that's why, you know, the medium and long-term outlook is so bright from a technology perspective and everything where they're heading.
The near-term, look, this is it's not just the moment of truth. I mean, this is something where for Musk and Tesla, you know, it's a mini crisis that essentially they're going through because if if Musk doesn't pull back from dudes and start to show more as as CEO of Tesla, then that's something that's going to continue to sort of be pressure on the stock.
You need to see a balancing act. The clock struck midnight. Investors are speaking. Dan, I'm getting a lot of messages from friends in London showing me posters that are very anti- Elon Musk, anti-Tesla across London. How concerned are you that this branding problem can metastasize and become much bigger than you're even expecting?
Yeah, look, Emry, if he pulls back and he balances it and you don't actually see him every day in Mara Lago in the White House and especially from a political perspective, I think a lot of this is it's a scar, but I think it's contained. I don't think it changes the longer term or even medium-term outlook, but as we've talked about, I mean, this the reason it's a moment of truth is you can have brand issues spread.
The future is so bright. I believe it's the best disruptive technology company in the world along with Nvidia. But ultimately, this is really that moment where Musk needs to read the room. We've seen it before when it comes to Twitter, right? I mean, we've talked about when he was selling stock, we saw at SpaceX, we've seen other periods over the last eight, nine years.
And I think we're at one of those moments. I think the stock's way oversold for what I view as ultimately a $2 trillion, you know, valuation as we look out in the next 18 24 months. Dan, I'm worried your flight might have just got caught. So, I'm going to squeeze in just one more question just quickly.
How long do you think he's got before this story gets away from him at Tesla? The stock is down by 23% this month alone. I think basically he has four to six weeks. if if on their conference call or between now and let's say early May, you know, that Mus doesn't sort of take a step back and basically he just dives into the deep end of the pool, continues to go aggressively further down, then the brand is spread because it comes down to the last thing you want to see Tesla become is a political symbol. That's a negative.
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