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in the morning it was time for him to step up. In other words, you got leaders lead and during this period, he needs to lead as as CEO of Tesla. And you know, I think that's been part of the frustration. But I thought last night was a huge step forward in terms of this quickly put together all hands me because it's showing, look, it's showing employees, shareholders, what's the vision, medium and long-term that continues to really be the golden goose.
And I think it was an important first step into ultimately more of a balancing act for Musk. I I don't know, Dan. And then he got right back on a plane and went back to DC, you know. I I don't know why him why him talking in front of his employees is such an important step. And I I mean, is it going to keep people from not buying Teslas?
Yeah. I mean, like Julie, my view is it's a first step. In other words, the whole goal here is I'm not saying and the many shareholders for him to end Doge. It's about a balancing act. So what else? So what now? What if that's the first step? What are the other steps? what now needs to happen is that he needs to be more engaged with Tesla.
he ultimately need even when it comes to doge whether it's you know very similar to you know how window stepped in in terms at at X it's making sure that he is not front and center five times an hour when it comes to Doge I think that you know you talk about the political firestorm and everything else the lightning rod I think part of navigating that it's that balancing act he's look he's going to get criticism okay and we understand that that doesn't necessarily change the brand itself.
If he starts to take a step back, that's where I think there's brand damage. It's a it's a scar. It's a bad bruise, but it's not a permanent black eye. D Cory Johnson here. Um, so, hey Cory, last quarter 33% of free cash flow was from government uh subsidies, uh, zero emission credits for most of it.
Four quarters ago was 100% of free cash flow. Do you start to look forward to a a federal government that's cutting unnecessary spending that is giving hundreds of has given hundreds of millions of dollars uh to Tesla not doing that anymore? Does that change your models in the future? Look, I mean look, well, look, they've become much less reliant, right, when it comes to the the credits.
But look, I mean, you obviously raised a great point which has been there is that and it's our view that Tesla 90% of the value going forward is autonomous and robotics which has nothing to do with EV tax credits to and and I think you know Mus talked about that in the all hands meeting that's the future and and and my view with Tesla continues to be what six times we've seen the stock sell off 50% peak the trough I mean the point is we've been through many you know very tough white knuckle times before.
This is obviously one that's even broader in terms of the political landscape. Doesn't change my view. This and Nvidia the two best disruptive technology plays next decade. Dan let me let me ask you a different question which some of your colleagues on the street it's interesting. They'll say that all this talk of the branding and the politics and the chainsaw and the Mara Lago that is not really the issue.
You know, I've heard some of your colleagues say the issue is much more fundamental. It is a Model Y switchover. It's a Model Y changeover. That is what's meaningfully impacting deliveries. There's too much they say being placed on the whole branding debate. What is your take on that? Yeah, look, I think it's I mean there's some truth to both.
Look, in terms of the actual numbers, in terms of the sales numbers, yeah, I mean, the brand issues have actually been call 10 to 15% of the actual decline cuz a lot of that is change over, refresh, and everything else. But Josh, I think in terms of the stock, 70% of the selloff is brand issue, brand worries in terms of, you know, some of the the sort of crisis that we're seeing.
And the reason is it's investors kind of looking forward. In other words, Musk is Tesla. Tesla is Musk. He is the brand. And what he's created is is a company that's obviously, you know, globally, in my opinion, one of the best brands in the world. It's making sure that the brand damage doesn't spiral into something much more negative.
And I think that's that's how I'd almost characterize those two issues. I I mean, I I have to wonder if it's already there, Dan. And I also, you know, I've been trying to think of other brand situations like this, right? You think about the the Bud Budweiser situation. You think about Target. You think about some of the other recent examples and it has taken a long time in those cases and they haven't in some cases they haven't even fully recovered, right?
So, um, how how long, especially since he doesn't actually seem to be trying to do anything to repair this damage in terms of the brand and the image? I mean, how long could we see the situation play out? Well, Jo, there's different ways to view it. I mean, some could argue, and I we got to see how it plays out.
Like, do more Republican or Trump supporters ultimately then start to buy Teslas, right? In other words, ones that weren't buying in now they're must supporters and that actually becomes a positive. Then it comes down to when you look at the brand. I mean, I think Tesla's brand is it's almost hard to compare cuz you're going to have 10 million Teslas on essentially on the road going into next year.
And when it comes to autonomous, the question is like when you start to actually have cyber cabs and we have what I believe one of every five cars autonomous. Do people not take that because it's it's Musk? Because maybe something that happened a few years ago. I'm going I'm fast forwarding to the next, you know, one, two, three years.
So, I'm just saying I get the brand issues. We've talked about it, you know, constantly over the last week, but I the reason last night was important cuz he read the room. It's the start of what I view as a balancing act, and I think that's very important. Well, we'll see if he starts to take those next steps then, Dan.
Thanks so much. Appreciate it. Thanks. Joining me now is Dan Ies of Wedbush. He's the global head of tech research. Well, Dan, I I think I summarized it pretty good, but you think another trillion in market cap from here? I mean, Kelly, I think the golden goose is autonomous. I think that's worth a trillion dollars in terms of valuation.
The federal road map will now start to get paved and that that's ultimately from a valuation perspective, I think autonomous and robotics is more than the company itself. So, I I get some of the brand issues and maybe some of the headwinds in Doge and you know, in terms of everything Musk is doing in the beltway, but this continues to be the bet for the ages in terms of Musk betting on Trump and that's going to hugely benefit Tesla.
That's why we think this golden buying opportunity in terms of this selloff. So, I'm sure that investors in the stock would agree with you. You know, the the ones who have been in this, they're they're passionate, they're committed. of course they think, you know, autonomous is the play here, but I still see a lot of frustration on social media about the performance lately.
And um even a couple of hours ago, Musk was tweeting about how the Boring Company is building a tunnel in Dubai or something. I mean, he has a lot going on. Would they prefer that his focus is more on Tesla? Yeah, look, I tell I think a few years ago that would have been the preference, but I think the reality is I mean even some of the stuff Seaman talked about everything we're talking about in terms of AI having that front row seat at the table in that Trump administration that's bullish in terms of AI innovation.
I think more and more projects especially that that come through and that he's going to drive. I think is going to be very important in the China tariff discussions and they have a massive innovation line coming out in terms of optimist in terms of autonomous everything we see with Austin in terms of June.
So look haters are going to hate as they always do in Tesla but I just think this selloff here I think it's just a massive buying opportunity given we see a $2 trillion market cap on the horizon. Tell me about the China business. You know how much under threat is it and how what do you think might happen there on the tariff front?
Yeah, look, I think they're actually going to be least exposed when it comes to China just because I think there will be exclusions when it comes to tariffs for Apple, for Tesla. Some of the chips from Nvidia and look 40% plus of demand as well as manufacturing comes out of China. But that's also why I mean Musk is 10% politician, 90% CEO.
He plays well in the sandbox in Beijing. They want that trophy case of Musk and Tesla in China. and he's one of the rare people along with Cook that's able to be successful in China as well as the US and I just don't I think a lot of sort of the worries there are well overdone I think growth will return in terms of the China market all right uh do you think that that is also what makes Musk's presence in presence in Washington more help than hindrance and how should competitors think about that yeah I mean look he's one of the rare ones that basically has that blessing from Beijing and that's something from a Trump perspective as we get into these tariffs, as you'll see, you know, obviously coming up today and and just over the coming months, he's going to be a huge asset for Trump when it comes to China.
He understands Beijing, has strong relationships in the government there. And also, he understands AI. I mean, it goes back to Nvidia, chips, everything we're seeing with Apple. That's why the street, I think, is kind of seeing in this game of high stakes poker, not as worried. That's what you're seeing in the stocks.
But I do believe Musk, despite all the sort of worries, him having that front row seat in the White House is bullish for Tesla. And I think a trillion dollars is the autonomous value. That's why I just view this as noise despite some of the pain in terms of the sell-off.
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