저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK은 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 확률이 높아졌다고 보며 1월 10일 기한을 언급. 금리는 디플레이션으로 크게 하락할 것이라 주장하고 금속/금 비율과 장기금리의 상관관계를 근거로 2%까지 하락 가능성 제시. 혁신 기업은 디플레이션 환경에 유리하다고 봄. 펀드 유출은 세금 관리성 매도로 설명하며 리밸런싱 규칙이 장기 시장 초과수익에 유리하다고 주장. 테슬라는 전통 완성차 업체의 EV 후퇴로 점유율 확대 수혜를 예상. X(트위터) 가치는 약 200억 달러로 본다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Sure. Um, a couple of things. First of all, um, Bido, the ProShares is already approved. There's no regulatory uncertainty having to do with it. Uh, uh, so we chose to maintain our exposure through Bido, uh, for the time being. And, uh, as I mentioned before, there are some, uh, tax and regulatory uncertainties still as part of this process.
uh we don't know exactly who's going to be approved and uh and whether they've met all the uh criteria that the SEC has put before us. Uh we know we have uh but uh we don't know if others including GBTC have. We just we just don't know. Uh so so again out of an abundance of caution and GBT's discount again it was as much as 50% relative to NAV.
So, not only have we enjoyed this year the run in Bitcoin itself, but we've had the nice closing of that discount. So, it's been uh you know, double good news for us. But you've talked about January 10th, Kathy, I think in another report. Is that possible whether it's you or somebody else in terms of the first um spot Bitcoin ETF actually getting approval?
Uh well, we think the probabilities have gone up because the SEC has been highly engaged compared to what was happening before. Before it was just denying approval, denying approval. Uh and we just kept putting our uh filing in again, you know, trying try to try try, you know, and determined. And uh so here we are.
We think we're we're first in line. And that's why there is this uh January 10th deadline. Um but we like the idea that the SEC has been so engaged and it's not just with us, it's others as well. We think a number of uh uh a number of funds could be approved at the same time. Uh and they've been asking not only one set of questions but follow-up questions and uh again that's a very good sign.
Well, speaking of engage Oh, go ahead please. No, no, no. Please. The last few questions have been very technical and uh And so more duriger and you know you'd expect them to be asking these questions as we head toward an approval. Now it's not 100% certain and uh so we want to make that clear as well.
Um this is the SEC and uh we never know you know what might happen along the way. Regulators can be tricky that's for sure. Hey listen you mentioned engagement. Let's talk about engagement with your funds overall and especially the ARC Innovation Fund. Up 72% year-to date, easily outperforming uh some of the major uh market benchmarks.
Still down 65% from the highback in February of 2021. For you though, a lot of critics. We bring up your name, we bring up Ark, and you have a lot of fans and you have a lot of critics. There's a lot of discussion. Does it feel though a little bit like a victory lap this year? Uh well, you know, we are very happy that a couple of things have happened.
Uh that this idea that interest rates were going to continue moving higher uh has been proven incorrect. And uh I think even the Fed, while there is that small possibility, even the Fed is now starting to talk about the other side of the interest rate movement. So I I do believe all we've seen so far is a reaction to that macro phenomenon or or judgment call.
Um, we went through our our flagship strategy and all of our strategies went through a very difficult time from February 21 through December of 22 as interest rates first of all were presumed uh to move up or forecasted to move up and then when they did move up so it was almost like a double discounting and so we've seen the first installment of um the the uh the correction there to the upside for our funds.
Uh with this notion and it's again the forecast that interest rates will come down and you know we we would presume that if they do come down uh for the reasons we think they're going to come down the most important one being deflation then our funds will uh be in good shape because we are very uh our our companies uh thrive on deflation.
technologically enabled innovation is deflationary. So Kathy, a very good morning to you. It's Manis first time we we've met on uh so we're going to move to a deflationary environment. We'll come back to the big macro call in a moment. Just let's square it away before I talk to you about the flows in the funds which is how much interest rate cuts do you presume are you forecasting?
Leave the forecast of everybody else aside. Well, what do you what do you presume will happen next year? Well, we put up a chart uh in one of our in the no in the then nose, which is a a YouTube video that I do every every month, employment Friday. And in that chart, you will find uh a a ratio. It's the metals uh to gold ratio.
So, metals price to gold price. uh and there has been an extremely tight correlation between that ratio and long-term interest rates in October. We we published it or early November and what you will see is that there was a very wide gap that had developed. The metals to gold ratio was near its low for the past 12 15 years and interest rates were at their highs uh 5%.
The correlation if you just eyeballed that chart the correlation suggested that rates should go to 2%. Now maybe they won't go all the way to 2% but we think that long-term interest rates are way above where they're going to end up because of deflation. Okay. Yeah. Well, let's we'll come back to that and see whether we get to the 2% level.
I've got to ask you about the flows into the funds, which is obviously, you know, as Carol just said to you, you've got a bit of a victory lap going on at the moment, but this is the first year of outflows. Um, have those outflows stopped? You've had a great performance in the back part of this year.
Have the outflows stopped? Um, and has that bleed stopped? Yes. Well, we were very gratified at our asset retention in 21 and 22. Um in fact we had net inflows if you combine both years of more than $18 billion. Uh and this year uh one might expect uh that those who average down into the the very steep declines that we were seeing in 22 especially uh might take some profit.
though we have had uh I know for our flagship strategy it's um roughly $500 million in outflows maybe for all of our strategies 1.8 million so maybe 10% of the inflows that we enjoyed during 21 and 22 so again we're very gratified and grateful to our our clients for uh the support that we continue to receive.
So has the has the outflow stopped? Uh we have had uh days of onbalance very recently. Yes. Uh and I think part of this is many people do uh uh tax management toward the end of the year. And so some of the outflows might have been associated with uh uh with uh clients who um got in at a high cost base and we're just harvesting some tax losses.
But I think we're through that. Is do you find it a little surprising though, Kathy, considering the runup or do you I'm curious about the conversations you do have with investors considering the year that you're having and then to see those flows. It's got to be a little disheartening. Yeah. Oh, no, no, no, no, not at all.
Actually, we put out a piece for uh Resolute, our distributor, who um and and we basically showed to them if you rebalance our strategy when there have been big moves one way or the other, if you rebalance regularly or based on a rule like uh when when the funds up 15% relative to everything else, take some profits.
And what uh it showed that study showed that if you are disciplined that way that um over any rolling 5-year uh period um it is highly likely uh almost uh 100%. I'm not quite sure if it's quite that high but uh that uh uh that you will beat the market uh meaning as measured by the NASDAQ or the S&P over a rolling 5-year period.
And so uh a lot of our funds are with advisers who are very sophisticated and uh responded somewhat perhaps in this t tax management uh part of the year to that message. I feel like we can't talk we have to talk about Tesla and Elon Musk and I know you just had a conversation on Twitter X. Um, this has been, I think, from day one, right, in terms of you starting out that you've had this investment in Tesla and I remember when we first talked and you were getting started, you talked about him being the next Thomas Edison.
He and how his vehicles would turn the US economy upside down. Um, having said that, there's an evolution and the EV world has changed. How are you thinking? It's still a top holding. How are you thinking about the Tesla story right now? Well, um, first of all, Carol, thank you very much for letting me interview that time.
That was nearly 10 years ago. ARZ is about to celebrate his 10th year anniversary, and you gave us that opportunity. So, thank you. Um, uh, the world is evolving actually, um, uh, I think even more closely to what we expected. uh because we expected a lot of traditional auto manufacturers to see the writing on the wall and rush as quickly as they could into scaling big time into electric vehicles.
And what has happened recently? Both GM and Ford have said we're stepping back. Uh we're not going to do this until uh it's profitable. The problem with that is in order to be profitable, they need to scale. That's how this works. These are learning curves that they are uh riding down and those are expressed in cost declines.
So the fact that they're pulling back means they're more there's more share for Tesla and others who choose to go for it. And uh Kathy, I want to keep the conversation going on Elon Musk, but I want to bring it to the ARC Venture Fund. Of course, uh it's not an ETF. You invest in private companies, etc.
in there. And you take a look at the portfolio. You have SpaceX in there and you also have X, formerly known as Twitter. And in July, you had told the Wall Street Journal that you had written down your Twitter stake by 47%. Fill us in on the past couple of months. Have you written it down further or how has that changed?
No, I think it's uh still there. Um, you know, uh, we have to be very careful. This is an interval fund. It is a 40act fund and we have to mark to market every day. Uh the good news is our clients can get in and have access to these amazing companies for just $500 and they get quarterly liquidity. So so that's the good news.
The markdowns are simply you know if we see in the secondary market employee stock trading at a steep discount we have to take that into account. If we see others in the more traditional asset management work world like uh Fidelity and others uh marking their holdings down uh we need to take that into consideration during our daily mark tomarket.
So it's an abundance of caution. We have a 5-year investment time horizon. Do we think that's where X belongs in terms of valuations? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. a roughly 20ish billion dollar uh valuation for what we believe truly will become uh the everything app thinkat pay. Uh Elon started his entrepreneurial career in the payments industry and he's been thinking about this for a long time.
He now has money transmitter licenses in more than half of all of the states uh which we learned on Twitter spaces or on ex spaces I should say uh the other day when we had our interview with him. So that's exciting. He's going for it. He's going for it. Uh we'll see if that one lands. But let's talk a little bit more about the private markets because obviously the private credit market has gotten a lot of attention right now.
You're looking at the private markets through this interval fund that you have. When you think about the opportunities there on that 5-year horizon that you have, do
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