저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Chamath는 관세·이민 둔화·DOGE 긴축으로 2025년 하반기 성장률이 2.5%→1.5%로 둔화될 것으로 보고 단기적으로 매우 부정적이라 밝힘. 빅7(Mag7) 선행PER이 타 종목 대비 완벽한 가격을 반영해 시장이 다소 비싸고 매력이 낮다고 평가. 채권시장은 DOGE·관세 효과를 믿어 10년물 금리가 하락 중이며, 6개월 내 10조달러 차환 부담이 있으나 금리 하락 가능성도 언급. 영국 긴축 사례(브렉시트)를 들어 장기 긴축이 정치적 반발과 자산시장 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 주장, 이는 자신의 잠정적 가설이라 명시.
다듬은 글
I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen Camp it's not like the bottom is going to fall up but there's like a lot of room for concern I guess is the best way to put it Nick I don't know if you can find that clip that at fi but he had a very precise summary of how he saw the world and I I I frankly just agreed with everything that he was saying so he he probably can say better than I when you take a brew of tariffs on top of that we have slowing immigration and in addition that have Doge I mean that's austerity we think growth is going to slow to 1 and half% from 2 and a half% in the second half and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while and it may only last a year or so but it's definitely I think the best gains have been had and and wouldn't surprise me to see a signific a correction I think a couple of very specific thoughts the first is that you're starting to see this compression of the mag 7 towards everybody else so this is the forward PE of these guys and so what you're starting to see is everybody else starting to capture back some of the ground people are processing what the real upside of of the mag 7 is now if you go to the other chart what this starts to show you though is that mag7 is really price to Perfection and so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is otherwise you're going to have some amount of of mean reversion so I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive second the bond market has basically said okay we are going to give you credit that doge is going to work and that tariffs are going to work so we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10e which I think is really interesting I think it's very good for bessent and for Trump and I think I've mentioned this before but we got to go in and you know refinance 10 trillion doll in the next six months so you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data the real problem I think though is that if you look back and say what does this look like the example that I would give you guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom the deficit as a percentage of GDP was 10% and the UK government embarked on a multi-year austerity plan and they said we're going to get the deficit as a percentage of GDP back in line and ultimately by 2016 it got to 3% which is where we are trying to get to and right now we're a little bit under 7% we're trying to get it to 3% so it's interesting to ask what happened and there the bond market gave the UK government a ton of credit so they kept rates relatively low and they brought them back from where they were that seems like What's Happening Here Yeah the stock market the stock market kind of went sideways to a little bit down let's see what happens here but the real big thing is in the UK all of this created tremendous dissatisfaction and you had brexit so I think the question that I have is if we go through a prolonged austerity program and the frustration amongst the American populist builds what's the release valve there the release valve was Voting to leave the EU here it's not quite it's not obviously what a release electing Trump was step one and I don't know if there's something even more populist than Trump other than I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity I think people want this austerity just the question is what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years I don't know what the answer is you've been talking a little bit about this I was a couple weeks ago you were tweeting about the great reset Theory and there's you know whatever that is the third or fourth turning people have been talking about you want to uh maybe encapsulate your thoughts I think you have to figure out what the goal is so one goal is you could say that the Republicans want to have consistent political power right that's a reasonable goal the Democrats want that too right a different goal would be to do what freeberg said we're going to go and take the lumps because we are going to defend the dollar and The credibility of the United States we're just going to make sure that structurally it's sound and take the pain that's necessary to reset that could be a goal I think the reality is something in the Middle where you can't be in one camp and you can't be in the other because I don't think you can get anything done and somewhere in the middle I think the thing that I had been thinking lot about is when will somebody sniff out what the great Coalition is that preserves political power whether that's the Democrats or the Republicans the reality is that you will have a consistent majority if you get three cohorts of people together cohort number one are the people that frankly don't have many assets and are the working in Middle Class meaning they don't necessarily own homes they don't necessarily have investments in the stock market so they don't particularly care about what's happening there okay that cohort dominates there was a clip of a discussion at Harvard just this past week about the different political coalitions that voted for Trump versus kamla Harris the most important takeaway that I took from it is that if you make $100,000 or more a year you're a reliable Democratic voter if you went to college you're a reliable Democratic voter everything else is a reliable Republican voter but the thing to remember is that bucket of everything else is growing faster than that first bucket so you have this Coalition of the asset light working in middle class and then you have other people patriotic business people and patriotic business owners and Technology people that care about Innovation that Maga has been able to correct into a coalition my point is if that is the consistent reliable thing that cements political power multiple elections from now and we've seen this before in the past where Republicans can go on a three-term run or you know a four-term run Democrats have as well in the past it is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners because it doesn't reward the constituents back to free Brook's point so if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive draw down in those asset categories what do you think the winning strategy is that is my rough working version of what our version of brexit is right so if you have many many years of austerity what is it really result in I think if you want to cement political power I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way that's stocks and that's real estate and I just don't see any other way around it fascinating the good news is I think from my perspective is but by the way sorry last thing I would say that's a total Theory and I could change my mind as I get more data but I'm just saying like I'm just trying to work through the possibilities and in the distribution of outcomes that's sort of where my head's at right now
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