저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Nvidia 수출통제 우려로 급락했으나 일시적 공포로 봄. 수출규제는 싱가포르 등 주변국으로 확산될 수 있으나 'Bark is worse than bite'로 실제 공급 영향은 제한적. 애플은 관세 영향이 제한적(90~95% 확률)이라 봄. 엔비디아는 AI 인프라 확장으로 해자가 강화되며 AI 엔터프라이즈 도입은 18~24개월 내 본격화 전망. 현 조정은 기회로 제시.
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because for more on Nvidia and the pullback in mega cap tech let's bring in Dan Ives web Bush security is a global head of Technology research and Dan that's exactly where I want to start with you um because there had been some speculation we expected we were going to get um a chip related announcement from president Trump this afternoon and that was really when we saw the speculation that maybe it's going to be increased export controls on the likes of Nvidia and some of these Advanced um you know semi- related products instead we got this $100 million investment from Taiwan semi but that fear is still out there and it's kind of interesting because we have export restrictions on quite a few countries but apparently not Singapore yeah and I I I was just there on Friday right so so I I could tell you the sense is that these export controls it's not going to be really constrained to ultimately Singapore and I think the fear here and I think you're seeing on the Nvidia selloff is that this is going to be a huge ripple effect it's going to be harder and harder to get those chips that's something even though there's the China piece it could have a much broader impact across the region I do I think Bark's worse than the bite I mean as someone you know in Asia for two weeks I think it's one I get the fears but I don't think this is something that's really going to be as much of a restrictive Factor despite everything we saw today do you think it's deepsea concerns that are spurring this next wave potentially of Regulation and I guess perhaps just as importantly has the train already left the station when you look at homegrown chip development in a place like China look I think deep seek that was a shot across the bow because I think everyone recognized okay they didn't do this in the basement with no chips and it comes down to if they use nextg Nvidia chips what does that mean and I think look the broader fear especially that you see in the Trump Administration is okay we got to restrict it more and more so I think what you're starting to see from an investor perspective is okay what does this mean for NVIDIA second derivatives is this going to crimp the supply chain now we disagree I think when it comes to tariffs we've seen many times this is one it's going to have an impact but I do not believe it's going to have such a pronounced impact that think's being factored in here in terms of supply chain still 15 to1 demand the supply even when it comes to black low well okay bark is worse than bite but still a bark can be pretty bad if it hurts sentiment right if it sort of puts a wet blanket on the party has an impact on valuation at what point does it start to do that and do you have to if you're an investor or even Nvidia investor have to get less bullish yeah look I mean no doubt you're going through a lot of turbulence here from a siment perspective you're seeing the stock then it becomes self Phill in Prophecy but what I'll tell you is it comes down to just demand do we see any changes in spending that demand is going to continue to be there and I think it's one there's only one chip in the world that ultimately could fuel this I get we're going to go through this but in my opinion these are opportunities not the time to run for the hills I think when you look at at it in terms of tech winners if you look over the years it's period like this in these White Knuckle period that you own the winners you own the nvidias well speaking of a company that's been through Cycles like this apple right on the client side with AI versus on the data center side it's the biggest uh premium consumer product company on the planet and boy could things get more expensive iPhones get more expensive under these China tariffs how much of a threat is that for a company that has some different ways to sell phones has a lot of cash to do some subsidizing of the debt necessary to help consumers do that yeah I think we believe there's a 90 and 95% chance that ultimately there's glue Pooles that they're not going to really be impacted terms of iPhones from the tariffs I think very similar what we saw in 18 2019 you know cook it goes back to like you know 10% politician 90% CEO I think they could absorb if they actually had to some of these tariffs with no sort of passing that through to Consumers the bigger issue is if this last till September until actual iPhone 17 production that's where it gets a little more you know I think nerve-wracking but as of now we believe that they'll ultimately be loopholes that apple is not impact and that's why I Al you're seeing the stock not really reflecting too much negative because the investors are kind of reading through that only 10% politician maybe I'd say 10% maybe the last few weeks uh 20 25% big deal because it hits it John what you and I have talked about before in the show is what are the downstream effects of AI That's being built in the infrastructure and uh we talked about what has to connect is this connection to to get the ball rolling Beyond infrastructure so uh this is exactly the type of deal that's happening that could potentially do that to accelerate the Enterprise and this is a big deal not just for Accenture and Nvidia but for the entire industry so I want to get your thoughts on this Dan especially because Jensen Wong literally said now is the beginning of this next wave that he thinks this is going to be the biggest wave this Enterprise adoption and then as that rolls out you're starting to talk about industrial AI which we mentioned it before the break Honeywell CEO said to me yesterday VL capore said to me yesterday it's a difference between predictive versus deterministic AI two very different models two very different outcomes a trillion dollars of AI cap X We Believe next three years and I think what Patrick talks about it's a great point we are just in the first inning of where AI is going but Partnerships like this I think there's a watershed partnership and I think what you heard from god father of AI Jensen and what Julie talked about this is now it's the multiplier for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip when there's an $8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of tech infrastructure Services you talk about industrial Sovereign AI it is just the start it continues to be our view it's 9900 p.m.
in at AI party that goes to 4: a.m. and I think what we see here is just starting to play out so Dan you can kind of see what Jensen and Nvidia are doing this this pace yearly Pace on the platforms and Technology the Partnerships throughout different areas of the ecosystem that don't just involve hey here's some chips we really building on top of our technology is is it coming down to an eventual Zero Sum situation where Nvidia pulls away and when they win big everybody else at least who competes with them on the chip side thinking AMD and Intel are at bigger risk of losing yeah no doubt Lisa Su clearly watching this interview is and everyone across the industry because right now they're the only game in town they're just going to continue to expand that moot it's the Oracle model it's the Microsoft model and and I think what they're trying to do is just gain more and more share when you talk about that Revenue opportunity and I think that's what Jensen's going after I think the big question today is we talk about this trillion dollars of AI capex fourth Industrial Revolution playing out but it is going to be a Game of Thrones battle with other big Tech players because Microsoft Google Amazon everything that you talk about in the show this is now starting to get into that second third fourth derivative that I know you know Patrick and you know and myself we talk about a lot and Patrick I mean I'm just going to stick with this discussion that we're having what this means for the competitive mode for NVIDIA but also what it means for how as it builds out this platform as it now reaches across where he used connecting fabric was the term he used uh with his partnership with Accenture what this means in terms of making Nvidia a newer bigger more formidable competitor with not just other chip players so this 100% increases the moat more deals like this and remember uh the company cut deals like this with IBM Consulting six months ago so they're going down the line with the major gsis and Jensen said it perfectly we just don't do chips we do chips uh we do coms chips CPUs we do racks we do networking we do entire uh data centers and then put the software on top of that and then you layer in these types of embeddings as I will call this uh what may have or may not have come across in this deal is that Nvidia software is going to be integral inside of the solutions uh from Accenture and what that does is that builds in a lockin that builds a moat and yes further down the line competitors will come in to be able to do that but but it takes time and people are very happy with the investment that Nvidia is making into this and nobody wants to get left behind just like we saw fomo in the data center buildout nobody want to get wants to get left behind the global systems integrators and everything in between the one of the big issues that hasn't been discussed yet is just the I'll call it the pitiful uh use in the Enterprise of AI right and I think we're 18 to 24 months current course and speed to start seeing that hockey stick and this is a deal that could potentially make that happen maybe it shaves off time I'm optimistic about this deal that it will
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