저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인은 정부 통제에서 벗어난 화폐 개념으로 기관 자금 유입이 가속 중이라고 봄. 정부 재정 확대가 비트코인 수요를 키우고 있으며, DeFi 확산으로 모든 자산이 토큰화·추적 가능해져 과세 누수가 줄어들 것이라 주장. 정부의 규제·금지 시도는 있겠지만 블록체인 기록으로 탈세는 어렵고, 이중지불 불가능성이 유지되는 한 비트코인은 화폐로 기능한다고 설명.
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all right action bias asks please debate decentralization of monetary value ultimate threat for insiders power erosion I interpret this as a as a Bitcoin question so yeah I think one of the most interesting things happening in the world today is this is what's happening with Bitcoin right it's and and you're seeing the price go up because a bunch of institutional investors on Wall Street are all getting into it now it's gone from retail to institutional and the narrative basically it's a really profound narrative which is it's the separation of money and state so if you think about like one of the most important events in human history was the separation of church and state where we no longer look to the state to determine you know what religion everyone was going to be well what crypto is introducing is this idea that the government cannot control the money supply I think that's what he's talking about with the decentralization is that you could have a currency that everybody in the world believes in that no government can control that's the separation of money and state now this is just really a narrative right now um I mean and who knows if it will actually come true but the interesting thing is that if everybody does believe in it it will come true and so bitcoin's been sort of described as the bubble that never ends because if everyone kind of buys into this bubble it actually comes true so I think it's very interesting and you're seeing um because Bitcoin is kind of perceived as the antidote to inflation and money printing by the government uh I think you're seeing it take on new urgency now because the government just keeps printing trillions and trillions of dollars of of new money doesn't this threaten government so if Government um doesn't have control over monitoring Financial transactions and have control over the accounts in which the financial assets sit which is effectively the notion of decentralized and automized wallets then um how does the government secure taxation which is requisite for their ability to fund to fund the state right and so what happens to the state well so there there's an enormous amount of leakage that happens today in assets that actually get financialized but in the gray market and I think the the beautiful thing is on the one hand you know we become less focused on like the M1 and the M2 money supply like the physical printable distributable money that we can see and touch and it gets replaced with virtual currencies that are tied to other things I think what the the the the the person who wrote the question is asking really is more about Defi and what's happening sort of like on the ethereum you know 2.0 erc20 contracts all that stuff which is sort of much more nextg I think than Bitcoin and I think at some point we should Deep dive into it but what I would say freedberg is all the leakage you have today goes away in a world of defi because you will financialized every single asset possible you know you'll financialized your cars your watches your jewelry your art you'll maybe even your career and how people will trade it absolutely your career and and the thing is by by monetizing it and financializing it you can borrow against it you can trade it you can pull forward value into the future against it but it'll all be tracked and so as long as a government then says listen we're going to enable it all but there needs to be an off-ramp to Taxation and that's pretty simple because a physical house exists in the world you can't hide the existence of a physical house but it's not anonymized right shth and so you know track it I mean that's the challenge is if no I'm saying if it is anonymized then the government can't track it and the government can't these are these are two separate things some assets will live anonymously and those are the assets that don't need to exist in the real world but I think what this will create is a world where all of these assets that actually Tru exist in the real world it'll be fine that it exists and that people get taxed on it but it'll be much more legitimate and I think it'll be simpler and so I think people will trade off incremental taxation for incrementality I'll give you an example um let's use real estate there is no reason why every single piece of land everywhere around the world isn't written into a ledger with knowledge of who owns it such that the person that owns it could trade it could borrow against it um could sell it fractionalize it fractionalize it even if you can't fractionalize it in the real world CU your neighbors won't let you set it up to four Lots you could do that online online and so today what'll happen is that you know that person has a level of wealth and what they do instead take the United States is they lobby lobby lobby to create all this convoluted real estate tax law to make their life simpler but if you actually unlocked the ability to focus on Revenue versus expenses you just wouldn't Focus as much on the taxation because you'd say well I can make so much more money if you judge just to you know sort of answer the question here from the from the reader from The Listener I think you can really judge this based upon how much it's being pumped by the people who own it and they are absolutely dogged religious about this it's like talking to an you know person who's you know met Jesus and now everybody has to be a Christian um and you can also look at uh the people who are opposing it I don't know if you saw Yellen um and then um Christine leard she came out against it yellen's come out against it India might ban it and then you have obviously China's coming out their digital one on so I think it's going to be there's going to be a dog fight here where governments are not going to easily give up their control of this and there's many ways they can make a bunch of red tape to slow this down and in countries that are authoritarian they can outright ban it let's take another question here by the way there's like three outcomes here right I mean you you could either see Bitcoin for example you know being banned and that's going to be ugly um and and obviously there would be significant financial loss at this point I mean to Sax's point at some point there's there's so much asset value tied up in Bitcoin it it's too big to fail sorry David banned by who oh that that's Chinese government this this is what they're trying to do on some of the states right and they're trying to make it illegal for citizens to transfer money in and out of the asset class I I think it's I think it's a bigger threat to countries that want to impose export or currency controls and and Export restrictions but but frankly if you're a country that's not afraid of currency movements because you're not trying to do sowing oppressive to your people I don't think you have that much to fear here I mean there are other ways of trying to hide assets or hide money besides Bitcoin and every transaction every Bitcoin transaction is written into The Ledger I think you have to be pretty dumb to try and commit a crime with Bitcoin because there's going to be a permanent record in the blockchain forever of that transfer and then there's companies that that provide U that do kind of uh sleuthing and try to you know unravel um you think tax evasion in the United States is going to be difficult um with Bitcoin if I acrew a bunch of value in bit coin am I going to be able to evade paying taxes on those gains and convert that bit Bitcoin into physical assets by purchasing it from another Bitcoin wallet holder I mean how how realistic is tax evasion going to be uh and how much would because that's ultimately what the US government would mostly well so you would convert cash into Bitcoin and then you want to sell your Bitcoin at some point you're going to have to sell it I mean there would be a a there' be a a realization of or no I'm saying transfer it to a seller of an asset of another asset that that's willing to accept Bitcoin in receipt and so two anonymize wallets I don't know I mean that that transaction is going to live on the blockchain forever and it's going to live in the books of whoever the seller is what are they selling you a car a house whatever I mean that that Transit a watch I mean look if it's a personal item maybe but if we're talking about a substantial asset like a house or a company or something they're going to need to the other side of the transaction is going to need to report the realization event so you're going to have to have two people collude to engage in tax evation seems like a really stupid thing to do legally Incorporated businesses are going to be mandated to do effectively identity verification much like we have to do under the Patriot Act with all the the fincial LA totally totally ultimately how the compromise arises right yeah I'm not I I I'm not that worried about I I feel like this whole like Silk row type Bitcoin will be used illegally thing is like kind of a old meme about it that I think that the fears are like greatly exaggerated but the the thing that jumps out at me about all the critics of bit coin and I'm I'm not like a pump or whatever but I do I do own some um is the the thing that like all these like critics don't seem to understand is the technology that's the common denominator whether it's like Howard Marx or Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger or whoever they're they're all like great investors or whatever but they're not technologists and a blind spot it's a blind spot and the thing they don't understand about the technology is that Bitcoin is the first digital asset to ever be created that you can't create infinite copies of right so think about like a song song or a photo or a video or whatever anything that's digital you've always been able to make an infinite number of copies isn't that what the word digital means is that it's infinitely copyable so how do you have digital money that can't just be infinitely copied obviously that would destroy the value and that was the genius of Bitcoin is that every transaction's written into this Ledger the blockchain is decentralized and nobody over the last decade or so has figured out how to counterfeit Bitcoin how to make a duplicate how to double spend Bitcoin As Long as That Remains true then Bitcoin can serve as money if everyone believes in it um the day that someone figures out how to counterfeit a Bitcoin how to double spend it it's all worthless
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