저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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S&P500은 연초 약 2% 상승, 나스닥100은 보합, 매그니피센트7은 테슬라 -27% 등 차별화. 관세·이민 축소·DOGE 긴축이 겹쳐 성장률이 하반기 2%대에서 1%대로 둔화될 수 있다는 우려. Mag7은 선반영되어 비싸고 주식시장은 다소 고평가. 채권시장은 10년물 금리 하락으로 감세·관세 효과를 선반영 중이며 2조 달러 규모 차환 부담 완화 기대. 영국 2010년대 긴축 사례를 들어 사회적 반발 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
not anymore not anymore right let's go through the market update here a lot of people are trying to figure out are we going to have a market collapse a boom let's just look at some of the numbers and have a a first principal discussion here S&P up almost 2% so far this year NASDAQ 100 flat Dow up 3% so pretty good start to the year in those index numbers but if you look at the max 7 some of them have some had some serious compression Tesla down 27% I do think that they had a big Trump Elon Spike Google down 10% Amazon 9 Microsoft about 8% meta Apple Nvidia or up to varying degrees and then coming into our taping this week Bitcoin down 15% over last month that too got the Trump bump and then adding to all this confusion unemployment is still at historic lows we're at close to 4% and if you look at the deportations that were promised they've been mod to start obviously they're just getting started they need some money to deport folks but they've only been deporting 500 people to a th000 a day and we haven't heard many numbers about the last couple of weeks as Doge has been sort of the center of attention so you know they'd have to get to two or 3,000 people a day to have low Millions let's say chath two or three million people deported for it to have any impact on unemployment finally act three and then we'll we'll get everybody's feedback on this CPI up 3% year-over-year we have had dipped down to that nice 2% handle and uh now it's back a little bit if you remember in September it bottomed out around 2.4% just in time for the election interesting how that happened that same month the FED cut 50 bips then it cut another 25 in December and since inflation's been growing modestly but steadily not insignificantly so put it all together trth and what do you think and then freeberg we go to you I tend to be sort of in the Stevie Cohen Camp it's not like the bottom is going to fall but there's like a lot of room for concern I guess is the best way to put it um Nick I don't know if you can find that clip that at fi but he had a very precise summary of how he saw the world and I I I frankly just agreed with everything that he was saying so he he probably can say better than I when you take a brew of tariffs on top of that we have slowing immigration and in addition now you have Doge I mean that's austerity we think growth is going to slow to 1 and 12% from 2 and 12% in the second half and so I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while and it may only last a year or so but it's definitely I think the best gains have been had and and wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction I think a couple of very specific thoughts the first is that you're starting to see this compression of the mag 7 towards everybody else so this is the forward PE of these guys and so what you're starting to see is everybody body else starting to capture back some of the ground people are processing what the real upside of of the mag 7 is now if you go to the other chart what this starts to show you though is that mag 7 is really priced to Perfection and so you have to believe that the world kind of stays the way that it is otherwise you're going to have some amount of of mean reversion so I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive second the bond market has basically said okay we are going to give you credit that doge is going to work and that tariffs are going to work so we've had some pretty meaningful compression in the 10e which I think is really interesting I think it's very good for bessent and for Trump and I think I've mentioned this before but we got to go in and you know refinance 10 trillion dollars in the next six months so you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we gets a good string of data the real problem I think though is that if you look back and say what does this look like the example that I would give you guys is in 2010 in the United Kingdom the deficit as a percentage of GDP was 10% and the UK government embarked on a multi-year austerity plan and they said we're going to get get the deficit as a percentage of GDP back in line and ultimately by 2016 it got to 3% which is where we are trying to get to and right now we're a little bit under 7% we're trying to get it to 3% so it's interesting to ask what happened and there the bond market gave the UK government a ton of credit so they kept rates relatively low and they brought them back from where they were that seems like what's happening here yeah Market the stock market kind of went sideways to a little bit down let's see what happens here but the real big thing is in the UK all of this created tremendous dissatisfaction and you had brexit so I think the question that I have is if we go through a prolonged austerity program and the frustration amongst the American populace builds what's the release Val they're the release Val was Voting to leave the EU here it's not quite it's not obvious to me what a release electing Trump was step one and I don't know if there's something even more populist than Trump other than I I think he is the mechanism of implementing the austerity I think people want this austerity just the question is what happens when the actual byproducts of that austerity are felt by people for six or seven years I don't know what the answer is certainly people are in favor of Doge and downs serving the government more than I I think anybody anticipated people are the statistics are showing and the polls are showing freeberg that it's incredibly popular when you look at this I don't want to say conflicting but it's a lot of different conflicting data here as to what's going on what do you what do you see in the numbers here and what does your instinct tell you because part of this I think is getting used to Trump again right like he says a lot of stuff some of them are scary some of them are just controlling and everything in between so what are your thoughts here are markets just adjusting to the the new uh the new team back in town the big question in the Trump actions is around tariffs versus the tax cuts that are being proposed versus the the spending cuts those are kind of the three levers and there's a very serious sensitivity to the economic outlook for growth and inflation as a function of how far each of those three levers are pulled and how they relate to each other is Trump actually going to pull forward the cuts that he has talked about or that elon's talked about how real is that there's a whole spectrum of opinions on that right now on one end you're looking at the house and the Senate reconciliation process for the budget proposals that they've put forth and you're going to scratch your head and be like are we really cutting enough relative to what the economists and others are telling us we need to do meanwhile you've got Elon and Trump saying hey we're cutting we're cutting we're saving we're going to get to a trilon a year but that's not showing up necessarily in the budget is it showing up in the actions out of Doge TBD so there's a whole spectrum of opinions on the cuts on the Tariff side there's a spectrum of like how far are these tariffs going to go you know the United States up until 18 something was entirely tariff driven in our federal government's revenue and it was a way of being kind of protection to the industry here and then over time the tariffs rates came down and down and down as we introduced an income tax which started I think at 3% right after the Civil War and went to 5% for high income earners and then obviously in the 20th century that's totally flip now we have like no tariffs and a 50% income tax for the highest bracket so can we actually revert back to a tariff driven income model for the federal government and what is the economic effect on growth for Corporate America in that world where taxes get cut for the companies and for individuals but we make all of our money from global trade does this the The increased cost of global trade hurt companies more than the benefit of paying fewer taxes lower taxes that's the big economic argument that's underway right now and it's funny it kind of seems to fall along political lines believe it or not much like everything else you know like economists that uh that are democratic aligned are Dem my party doing uh I agree with that yeah yeah exactly and so the Democrat aligned economists will say the tariffs don't make sense they reduce economic growth they have a negative effect we shouldn't be doing that and then the Republican alligned economists are saying the tax cuts will more than make up for the reduce the reduction from
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