저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 5년 내 비트코인이 50만 달러(현재 약 10배)까지 간다고 봤고, 진행자들은 이를 보수적 전망으로 평가했다. [캐시 우드의 비트코인 전망] 캐시 우드는 Salt 컨퍼런스에서 5년 내 비트코인 50만 달러 도달을 주장했다. 전제는 기업들이 대차대조표 자산 일부를 비트코인 등 암호화폐로 분산하고, 기관투자자가 자금의 약 5%를 배분하는 것이다. 그녀는 2014년 월스트리트 최초 수준으로 비트코인 펀드에 투자한 장기 지지자다. [진행자 평가] 진행자는 캐시 우드가 실제 전망보다 보수적으로 말했을 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 다음 반감기 이후 비트코인 100만 달러 가능성을 언급하며 강세 입장을 보였다. [공급과 수요 논리] 비트코인은 공급이 고정·투명·검증 가능하다는 점을 강조했다. 기관·기업 수요가 늘면 가격이 크게 오를 수밖에 없다는 논리다. 현재 시총 약 1조 달러 기준 10배는 금 시총 수준(약 10조 달러)과 비슷하다고 언급했다. 다음 반감기 후 18개월 내 금 시총을 추월할 것이라고 주장했다. [법정화폐 가치 하락 논리] 진행자는 달러·페소 등 법정화폐가 구매력을 잃고 있다고 주장했다. 비트코인 대비 달러가 지난 5년간 급락했다고 설명했다. 현금 예금 금리 0.06%와 인플레이션 5%를 들며 현금 보유는 손해라고 주장했다. 샤프 비율 기준으로 지난 10년간 최고 성과 자산이라고 언급했다. [리스크·조건] 전망은 기업·기관 수요 확대가 전제이며, 변동성과 규제 리스크에 대한 실질적 논의는 거의 없었다. 스폰서(SoFi) 광고가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
kathy wood by the way was yesterday at the salt conference shout out anthony scaramucci in the whole team over there and when she was on stage she was being interviewed by andrew ross sorkin uh she predicted that bitcoin will rise at least 10 fold 10x to 500k a coin in five years that's what she thinks now remember kathy is the same person who said tesla was gonna be worth thousands of dollars per share ended up actually hitting those targets and now with bitcoin she was in 2014 um she was one of the first if not the first institutional investor on wall street to put bitcoin into one of their funds um and her price predictions depend on whether companies corporations continue to diversify their balance sheet into bitcoin and institutional investors begin to allocate approximately five percent of their funds into it and so andrew ross sorkin asked her a bunch of questions one of the things she said is if we're right talking about corporations doing this and also institutional investors and companies continue to diversify their cash into something like crypto and institutional investors start allocating five percent of their funds towards crypto we believe that bitcoin's price will be tenfold of where it is today so she literally said that she thinks bitcoin will be more than 500k in the next five years i tend to think that she is not only right but also somewhat bearish here because it is likely to be much much higher what do you think john bearish is not a word i would use with kathy wood and bitcoin she has been bullish on bitcoin for a very long time she's uh she's an investor in innovation um i tend to agree with her that obviously it is dependent on more companies getting involved and people allocating cash towards the space the one thing i was pretty surprised with was that um she was talking about other cryptocurrencies as well on the platform and uh at the salt conference but she's been embarrassed on bitcoin for a while this is no surprise bullish bullish uh the thing i would say about that too is like it's probably a little conservative than what she actually believes right because people are going to hold her to it and they're going to look for that prediction to be correct and everything like that and that's only if uh the things go uh where she thinks they'll go but ultimately we've heard people say you know 10x 20x 30x whatever it ends up being they're gonna see it significantly higher over the next five to ten years and i think uh she's obviously proven to be a big believer in that kind of with not only her words but her actions so i think that the number is probably a little higher than that like what she internally believes but publicly uh she's giving kind of like a more conservative or safe bet relative to kind of the risk reward profile of bitcoin i think bitcoin hits a million dollars after the next half so 20x 20x and let's go i'd be happy and i think that she although she's not talking specifically about the uh having is going back to this whole idea of its supply demand right and the supply is known it's certain it's transparent and it's uh verifiable or approvable and so what do you need to do she need to understand the demand side which is she's explicitly talking about she's specifically saying that she believes that there will be increased demand from corporations taking the trillions of dollars on their balance sheet converting it into bitcoin uh not the whole balance sheet but some portion of it so diversification rather than just concentrating in bitcoin and then two is she believes that institutional investors about five percent targets in bitcoin over time and so if those two things happen that obviously would be a drastic increase in demand if you have a fixed supply asset demand increases price has to go up a lot and if you look today we're about a one trillion dollar asset give or take 10x would be about gold you know 500k bitcoin about 10 trillion dollars with the equivalent of gold if you really think about it that doesn't seem too shocking i think that's likely we will definitely eclipse gold's market cap by the 18 months uh past the next happening so the next halving plus 18 months by that point we'll have eclipse gold to market alex as in the chat would you sell it if he got to that price no why would you sell an asset that is going to be the reserve asset of the internet come on alex you've been watching the show yeah definitely not selling uh uh in that sense and also i think that there's a there's a huge piece of this that with bitcoin specifically uh as demand increases a lot of these companies what they're going to start to do is they're going to start to realize hey there's massive manipulation around the currencies and we talked about it i think a little bit yesterday where uh there's a lot of conversations around uh oh the peso has devalued it x percent compared to the dollar which sounds great except for you have two moving targets the peso is being devalued but so is the dollar the dollar is not a constant measurement of purchasing power and so yes the peso has been devalued at a faster rate than the us dollar but the u.s dollar has been devalued as well and so if you were to compare it to something like real estate or something that had much more kind of structural kind of value and holding of that value you would realize that these assets in terms of the fiat currencies have been devalued at an incredible rate look at bitcoin and the dollar the dollar has crashed aggressively against bitcoin over the last five years like it just crashed falling off a cliff same thing with all other fiat currencies and so when you start to understand whether uh it's real estate it's bitcoin you know these things that people want to hold as a store of value the fiat currencies aren't holding up that doesn't mean that they're going to go away it doesn't mean that people aren't going to use them as medium of exchanges but what it does mean is as technology lowers the barrier to entry and the friction of switching costs people are going to choose to use a store of value that is not a fiat currency because they're going to deem it to be a better store of value that's all they're trying to do is they're trying to store value where can i put my wealth so that at a minimum it doesn't get devalued over time and at a maximum it can grow and get me ahead that's all people are trying to do this at the end of the day that's what investing boils down to how do i put my wealth somewhere so that it's protected and it grows and right now holding cash it's not protected and it's not growing it's actually doing the opposite it's losing and so you start to look around the world and say where can i do this stocks crypto right real estate like there's assets that it works but holding cashing one of them yeah look that's exactly it right it boils down to the simplest thing of you're opting out of a system where you're guaranteed to lose purchasing power your dollar is guaranteed to lose purchasing power and you're opting into a system that has historically performed uh as the best asset over the last decade when it comes to risk reward right when you look at different metrics and stuff like that taking the volatility in account and taking kind of the percentage change and appreciation into account it's been the best performing asset over the last decade from on the sharp ratio so you're opting out of a system that you're guaranteed to lose money and you're opting into one where your money has uh appreciated in value and your wealth has been stored so i actually don't think uh you can go through all the nuance and everything like that but i think when you break it down in very simple terms it becomes a lot easier for people to realize hey look everything is getting more expensive around me the same money that i made this year is not as valuable the money sitting in my bank account is not as valuable we have the money sitting my savings account is earning 0.06 interest and inflation's 5 right so i'm already negative there by a wide margin it's going to continue to get worse over the next few months and what we're going to see is we're going to see people opt out of that they're going to start to learn and understand that they should get out of cash and go into other assets what's up guys bang bang a bunch of you want to bring that trillionaire energy every day and if you want to do it in your financial life go use sofi sofa is our exclusive sponsor because we think they've got a great piece of software that'll help you accomplish your financial dreams go to sofi.com today to get started you can invest in everything from etfs to individual stocks to cryptocurrencies to ipos and they even have an automated and best function head on over to sofi.com pomp today and make sure you come back tomorrow to watch more of the best business show
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