저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 한국·대만 방문 후 AI 수요가 강하며 메모리 수요가 4~6주간 약 30% 증가했다고 주장. 코스피는 연내 신고가 가능성을 언급. 시장 하락은 레버리지와 개인투자자 쏠림에 따른 과도한 변동성으로 보며, S&P500은 올해 8000pt 도달 가능성을 제시. 베어(비관론자)는 금리 상승과 CoreWeave 부채 우려를 지적하나 Ives는 부채/백로그 비율이 낮다고 반박. 테슬라-스페이스X 합병 가능성은 데이터·엔지니어링 시너지 측면에서 전략적이라 평가. 중간선거 민주당 승리 시 규제 우려는 과장됐다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Take a trip to South Korea or Taiwan and see what the demand is like . And then, see if you're still feeling pessimistic when you come back here. I think that's the only day I can imagine . When I talk to very bearish investors , I often ask them, "Have you ever been to Taiwan or South Korea ?" They say, "No, but..." So, what I'm trying to say is , what do you all think?
Today we have a wonderful conversation with the great Dan Ives . He will teach you everything about AI trading . He was a partner of Yorkville Ives and was in South Korea at the time . This is his frontline report on where the demand is coming from and why all AI bears are wrong. Furthermore, we will also discuss SpaceX and Tesla .
Will the merger happen ? What will the impact be? How should investors actually handle this? Next, we'll delve into CoreWeave's situation and the points Dan might agree with the bears on . We'll explore why he believes it's not as big a problem as the bears think , and then take a step back to look at the midterm elections, interest rates, and many other issues that will likely impact the stock market until the end of the year.
I hope you enjoy this conversation . Now, here's the conversation with Dan Ives. Dan , you recently went to South Korea, didn't you? Let's hear reports from the front lines. South Korea appears to be one of the most important countries when it comes to AI trading and the many momentums happening in the stock market .
What did you discover when you went to South Korea? In other words, looking at memory demand , it has increased by about 30% in the last 4-6 weeks . So, for me , when I think about why I get nervous or upset when I look at CoreWeaveAI's trading, it all boils down to what the demand looks like from a tipping perspective .
And I think memory is the top priority. There are countless names of memory players . And clearly, South Korea is the top priority. What's happening here is that investors are nervous about trading, but the fundamentals are telling a completely different story . That's why I became even more bullish on demand .
And I think what we see , and are already beginning to see , during this earnings season for technology companies will further support the AI story . South Korea is an interesting country. Not only are there many extremely important companies , but there are also individual investors who are very enthusiastic.
You are a legendary figure among individual investors over there. Is it like the chicken or the egg dilemma ? So, there's a company , and then individual investors appear, is that right ? Or is it simply that South Korea is generally a retail-driven market, and they just happen to have some memory-related transactions there ?
Ah, so I think they are closely related in a certain sense . This is because the industry, which is primarily comprised of companies like Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and many others, essentially dominates the memory market . And, probably going back many years, you had to Google to find out what KOSPI was .
Nowadays, like a taxi driver in New York, I ask whether the KOSPI is going up or down . However, this is impacting the retail environment in terms of transactions. There are so many financial influencers , so when you think about South Korea , K-pop and stocks are like the Yankees, right ? In other words, that's their passion.
And I think that's probably exacerbating market volatility excessively in both directions. At the moment, it seems to be significantly detached from the fundamentals. The sell-off in South Korea is surprising, and I still believe the KOSPI will hit a new all-time high next year . K-POP and stocks, that's a pretty good catchphrase.
That sounds interesting. Is the selling due to leverage? Or is it due to the anxieties of individual investors ? What is your driving force ? As you can see, E is a small NeoCloud, but its stock price fell 30% at the time of its IPO. This, even just considering NeoCloud, is connected to the entire story of South Korea .
Certainly, I think part of that is leverage within the system . Another factor, as you can see, is the huge influx of individual investors . For many years, the market in South Korea remained largely stagnant . Therefore, some of them have almost been discovered . That market has been discovered globally.
And that's also where the difference lies : I think the KOSPI is now a major topic of discussion among investors worldwide . However, perhaps it went too far during the upward trend . Furthermore, during downturns, the market becomes oversold . They are exploring new environments . In reality, it's more like, "What's Micron's P/E ratio trading at ?
5 times?" Look at the fact that SK is also dual-listed in the United States. I believe this marks the beginning of the memories of South Korea today. However , I believe that as time goes on, it will expand further, from neo-cloud to software, and then to a much broader ecosystem many years into the future .
So, taking lessons from South Korea and bringing them to the United States , there was a sell-off, people panicked, and Black Monday was predicted . So, that's just plain crazy, isn't it ? And what I felt was a turning point was a Friday a week or two ago, when S&P put option buying reached its second-highest level in history .
The Nasdaq is at its third highest level ever. When everyone focuses all their efforts on buying consensus puts, the question becomes, "What will happen if the stock price goes up? " And everyone has to hurry and buy them back . Basically, that's what happened, right ? However, this does not alleviate concerns about these CDSs plummeting, or about the world of Coreweaves , or anything else .
In other words , there are concerns regarding price and fundamentals . What do the bears have ? Or, is there anything they say that makes you think, "Hey, actually, there's a risk there, so we need to be careful" ? Yes, I think so. It cannot be denied that rising yields will put greater pressure on the market.
This is because 20% of the construction needs to be financed through debt or some form of equity conversion . Therefore, there is no doubt as to whether or not that will increase the cost of capital . of course. So, in terms of direction, I think they're right that it's a problem , and I saw that with Coreweave .
Where they are wrong is that , looking at Coreweave, the debt to the backlog is very small . And, as Jent always says, they seem to be healthier today than they were six months or a year ago . I think this is very similar to the SaaS apocalypse predictions that came out earlier this year . This is a story about infrastructure SaaS, like a moment in the apocalypse .
Yeah. Now, as the last quote suggests, I always end up with all the pessimists and negativity , many of whom have been consistent for the past three or four years . When you're on the Metro-North on the 20th floor of an office building in New York City, you can easily become negative . However, as I see globally, looking at the hyperscalers in Taiwan and South Korea , and the dollar investment in capital equipment, it is becoming a reality.
In other words, for every dollar spent on CapEx, there was a multiplier of $5 or $6 across all other technologies . This brings me back to my opinion. In other words, the market is underestimating earnings for the next 12 to 18 months by 15, 20, and 25 percent . However , as it unfolds , I think it will put the bears into hibernation .
That's the fundamentals. I've seen it at SpaceX, I've seen it at Meta, I've seen it at hyperscalers, and I've seen it again . That's my opinion. What's interesting is that even though stock prices are falling , people are becoming increasingly bearish . I'm surprised that this is happening . Because it's just a story like a standard dinner at a lounge with four characters , and for example, 20 minutes into "How's it going?", you get the feeling, " Oh, this might be a 99 bubble moment ." That's how I feel .
However, my opinion is, let's just go back. Technology companies are currently trading at 30 times their revenue and 21 times their profits, making them even more undervalued . Use cases are being further developed and validated. Even when talking about the consumer side, AppleRockofGibraltar's stock price is soaring because the market is indicating that Apple is starting to monetize its consumer-facing business .
Let's look at Meta as another example . The reason is music. You and I talked about bridging the gap with human-centered open AI. Views on human-centered AI have increased from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion . In reality, we return to the narrative of SpaceX and how it will absorb all the liquidity in the market, becoming a kind of black swan event.
However, that didn't happen . And I believe we must continue to fight with stories in this market . However, this market will be like a flight from New York to California . Let's say there was a severe thunderstorm in the Midwest . The person next door is probably about to crash and is texting a relative to ask where their belongings are in the drawer .
The other person is watching Netflix and drinking Cabernet Sauvignon . In short, you will experience moments like these in this market, but don't let panic or narratives like SaaS apocalypse or surrogate finance influence your investments . Yeah. What are your friends worried about when you're having dinner together ?
Do you have a couple of anecdotal conversations like, "I'm not worried because so-and-so said X" ? Yeah. For me, the key to supporting this is, A, where the demand lies in Asia . Because that's a definitive sign. It's no different from getting good grades on a test . I studied really hard , so that's what I got.
From a supply chain perspective , this shows where the demand lies . And secondly, when you talk to CIOs and many enterprise IT professionals, you can see that the number of AI use cases is increasing every day . This is particularly evident in software companies like Palantir and Snowflake . This indicates the next stage in AI monetization, where use cases are beginning to unfold .
However, it takes time for that to happen . This doesn't happen overnight . There is a gap when transitioning from capital investment to profitability , and we are approaching the end of that gap , entering the stage where profitability will become a reality . And I think that's related to what I told you .
Six months ago, someone told you that oil prices were between $105 and $110, the 10-year Treasury yield was $5, and the government was raising interest rates. Look at where the S&P 500 index is located . They probably said something like 65 to 6800 points . However, I actually believe I will reach 8000 points this year .
I think the market is saying that growth is being underestimated by Wall Street . Why do you think that happens? People find it difficult to comprehend that things could get this good. We may be living in a situation unlike anything we have ever experienced before . So when I go out for dinner , or in New York or around the world , and I say, "This reminds me of '98," or " This reminds me of '07," it's because I got bitten by a snake by what happened .
The construction of this core weave is very similar to that of fiber optics in the late 1990s when they were being laid, and also to Aether, etc. Therefore, there are many comparisons. However, this differs in that a data center is being built . Use cases exist. Major technology companies provide $1 trillion in balance sheets and $300 billion to $400 billion in free cash flow annually .
That's why Jensen has become a more stable presence than companies like Dell . We've never had an experience like this before. I can't explain to someone as skeptical as me that 30% of cars will be self-driving in the next three or four years . From a physical AI perspective, I cannot explain the concepts of SpaceX and Tesla, or why the two companies are merging .
And for the first time in 30 years, the United States has surpassed China technologically. I think there are also anxieties surrounding the midterm elections . If the Democrats win a landslide victory and regulations similar to the coal moratorium are imposed, would that deal a major blow to the AI revolution ?
Do you think that will have an effect ? Certainly, I think the concern that a landslide victory for the Democrats, resulting in them controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives, would be extremely detrimental to technology and AI, is fueling that scenario. At first glance, I think so too.
However, upon closer examination, many of these concerns appear to be less serious than they seem . In reality, if development is delayed through regulatory moratoriums and other measures, the biggest winner will be China. If you look at the Chinese market in relation to disasters , you'll see what the Chinese market was like last year , and that's because US technology is years ahead of China's.
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Yes, it's almost the same number. What I'm trying to say is that once the midterm elections are actually held, regardless of who wins, we'll know who won, and then we can say, " Okay, we're ready to take off ." People will feel a little relieved, as they'll have more confidence in what the stage will be like for the next two years.
However, I think the actual uncertainty is very high. Because all I read online, or see on social media or on TV, is talk about data centers . Data centers have become one of the biggest topics of discussion for both sides when it comes to AI. And this applies to broader elections as well . However, in the world of politics, when things actually unfold, the discussion and reality are often very different.
For example, if a senator in a certain state votes against a data center , the data center will relocate to another friendly state , and jobs and tax revenues will flow there. Therefore , I believe some of these uncertainties stem from the uncertainties surrounding data centers . And there is no doubt that much of it is simply a fear of the unknown .
The Democrats, by definition, are very cautious when it comes to building data centers, and I think they are definitely more proactive in talking about what we are seeing regarding the building, such as AOC, Bernie Sanders, and obviously some on the left wing of the party. However, that does influence some of what we see here.
Yeah. Looking specifically at interest rates, Walsh said that if interest rates were raised, stock prices would fall , but he did raise interest rates, and stock prices rose. How do you interpret that? Well, I interpret Hume's actions as having been necessary to some extent as warning shots . The bond market was saying he had to raise interest rates, so he did .
However, this also leads to questions such as why interest rates are rising and why inflation is occurring . We could say it's oil , but much of that is happening amidst the unprecedented boom in AI equipment investment brought about by the Fourth Industrial Revolution . This is funded by a US technology company .
So , I think it all boils down to the fact that, well, there's a possibility it could rise again . However, unless 10-year interest rates rise sharply, as they did during the Jimmy Carter administration, to 50-75 bits per second , it will only affect about 1%, or 0.5%, of data centers . However, that doesn't significantly slow down what we see .
Therefore, I think we need to understand everything in context, but this simply creates anxiety, and I think it's a phenomenon seen with CoreWeave CDS and Oracle . Oracle and Coreweave are prime examples of companies making disproportionately large investments in order to build what they need . However, for them, that was their choice.
Hyperscalers are clearly in an advantageous position thanks to their capital situation and, needless to say, their installed base . However, for many companies, especially companies like Neo Cloud , this is absolutely necessary. I still believe we need more NeoCloud solutions. Jensen was also talking about that today.
In other words, this supports our view that demand far exceeds supply . When I wrote the Gartner report, there were several comments about NeoCloud and other related topics . Look, that's how a market is formed . However, I disagree with the negative view here. So , what would slow down demand at this point ?
I don't know . You're smarter than me, so you might know something that's slowing down demand , but every time these products are released , I think, Crock-Pot is great, Instinct is great, Muse is great. And now, Anthropic has unveiled a persistent personal assistant type of AI. That's wonderful. And we see it throughout our entire company.
We use AI for video editing, coding, growth analysis, and SEO . In other words, we are using AI in every aspect. We use this technology in our business. Frankly speaking, I think that the people who were saying six months ago, "I know about AI, and I basically use it as an alternative to Google," are now diving deep into it .
It's like, "Give me more of this!" "How can I implement this into my entire job?" We're not Albert Einstein, after all . So, I think we represent other companies, but in five years, people who aren't early adopters will be doing the same thing , and there will be far more of them than there are people doing it today .
We also talked about how, as the price of tokenization rises , the models will eventually become commoditized, further opening the door to AI . And the reason Muse is so important is because it's mainstream for consumers . And I do n't think physical AI has even begun yet . That supports my view that we've only progressed less than 15% of the way to where we are now .
And I believe that we won't reach a state of equilibrium until 2029 . Yeah. Therefore, once we enter that scenario, I believe the market will gradually rise, and even with these nail-biting moments , the numbers will continue to climb . Certainly, it causes a lot of anxiety. Let's talk about Tesla and SpaceX.
For me, this is the story. Yeah. Elon Musk had a great week . He announced the financial results, unveiled a flying car, and even launched it. Currently, one out of every two rockets launched worldwide is manufactured by SpaceX. And now, Elon and the SpaceX team have not only confirmed that there are special committees in both companies reviewing the matter, but they have also confirmed it .
The expression used was that trying to achieve this would be like tap-dancing through a minefield . What kind of negotiations take place with regulatory authorities? However, they definitely want to make it happen . Ah, the question is "when, " not "if." In my view, the first question is: why strategically ?
Yeah. The first is data. Considering Tesla today, and as SpaceX strives to become a hyperscaler , the data Tesla brings to SpaceX's story will likely accelerate their ambition and capabilities. The second is mutual interaction among engineers . As we've already seen with the Roadster and other models, this is extremely important.
The third point is that Musk has all the AI technology under one hood, meaning it's all underneath. And as a shareholder, Tesla has had a significantly poor year . The reason is that Tesla has shifted from being an EV player to an Optimus, autonomous driving, and ultimately, a future AI player . I think for Tesla to make this deal happen , the stock price would need to go from 5 to 550 .
In other words, is it a 30 to 40% premium, or a share of the current rate? I don't think a deal will be completed for under $500 . And to justify that, one could argue that we need to delve deeper into what the future holds for Tesla . The idea here is that the higher the price, the more conflicts of interest are mitigated.
Because Tesla shareholders were paid more than 30% more than the trading price of their shares , it is very difficult for them to argue that it was not a preferential trade . No, that's not correct . Furthermore, not only from Tesla's perspective , but also from the perspective of Tesla's shareholders , the reason for the sluggish stock price is that Tesla is shifting from an EV player to an AI player , and not all capital returns are focused on vehicle deliveries .
It's all about the future, and that's the right strategy. However, while I wouldn't say stock prices are artificially manipulated , they are currently sluggish because this is a year for investment . I'm surprised it's not more expensive. However, even when I went back to the Twitter controversy, I had several moments where I thought, "I'm not an arbitrage trader , but Musk will buy Twitter despite his eccentric behavior ." However, the stock price was trading at a level far lower than the price it ultimately reached .
This will likely result in a similar situation . Considering Tesla and China 's regulations, there will likely be opinions on how SpaceX will handle this from a national security perspective . Depending on the political situation , there will likely be a queue of regulatory officials . In other words, there will likely be a fairly large queue of people trying to disrupt this merger .
Isn't it too big in scale ? Are there any concerns ? The largest merger in history? that's right . If it actually happens, it would be $3.5 trillion, but it will probably end up being between $4 and $5 trillion . And if this is realized, it could be argued that SpaceX will become the world's largest company .
In other words, it will be the biggest merger in history, bringing together two of the most disruptive and innovative companies in history, led by perhaps the best entrepreneurs of our generation, or at least the best entrepreneurs of our generation . It's one of the best ever . That's why everyone is paying attention to this.
Well, and if you add a cherry or something like Game of Thrones on top of a sundae , it's perfectly fine . Furthermore, there's the obvious political involvement of Mr. Musk , particularly in the midterm elections, taxes, and other matters . This brings us back to the question of whether this can be achieved under the Trump administration .
In other words, he has no choice but to do so. No, I mean, basically, we have a year and a half to two years to accomplish this. This indicates why the clock chimed, meaning it's time to act. However, SpaceX is also behind schedule. Consider SpaceX's position as a hyperscaler . Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, SpaceX.
Oracle is trying to do things with debt . Mark does n't like it, and Oracle's stock price is basically going down every day . SpaceX is developing a large-scale accelerator with Starlink , and in a broader sense , you just want to think about this point. In other words, most people seem to be waving goodbye to Musk .
I think he has become someone who stirs up both praise and criticism . But think about SpaceX two years ago . If you ask what SpaceX does , the answer is definitely launching rockets. of course. If someone had asked me 12 months ago, I would have said I was launching rockets and also working on an interesting internet business .
If you look at their second-quarter earnings today, you'll see they're an AI company with rockets. Absolutely. In other words, he completely transformed this business in 24 months and now owns what was once Twitter . You also own a Cursor, right ? They also own the SpaceX business . I built Starlink from scratch.
In other words, it's like saying, "Hey, this guy acquired one of the world's best companies and basically said, 'This is too small . We need to make it bigger. '" And now he's in an exponentially larger, more valuable market, and it's working out for him . When you think about Starlink, consider whether it poses a threat to carriers , or what's happening in the aviation industry .
For example, if you're using StarLink on a United Airlines flight, trying to use Delta Airlines' Wi-Fi probably won't work . In other words, it's about how many of Delta Air Lines' members will switch to United Airlines. In other words, I'm just trying to explain it as if he has a magic wand . However, it's clear what it's aiming for.
They are trying to turn it into a true AI giant . However, that would be difficult without Tesla. Furthermore, I think it would be difficult to manage two separate companies like Tesla and SpaceX . And I think that's related as well. He's notorious for occasionally bringing in SpaceX engineers—or rather, Tesla engineers—and saying, "I need you for a week.
Come here and help me fix this X, that is, Twitter. " Or perhaps a SpaceX engineer—I think either a SpaceX engineer went to Tesla , or a Tesla engineer went to SpaceX—went to the manufacturing line and said, "Oh, this is what you guys messed up. We fixed it here ." Knowledge transfer is a real thing .
So, he's already putting to good use what he's learned at various companies , and this year is one of the worst years for engineer shortages, so the opportunity to work not only at Tesla but also at SpaceX is very appealing to engineers . Actually, that's unique. Yeah. Let's consider that aspect by thinking about the full stack and try to visualize how far this can go .
That's right. It's vertical integration. Starlink is possible because rockets have the capability to launch. Yeah. There are other payloads, but Starlink can send internet data. It might be coming from a space data center . Data center. In other words, I have acquired a space data center and am transmitting the internet to Earth .
If the internet goes down, will the phone eventually become usable again ? perhaps. Nobody knows . So, what do you do on the phone ? All AI features, such as the Grok cursor and Grokbot, are available. And, incidentally, all that intelligence running throughout the entire system is also sent to your car, humanoid robots, and specialized robots .
It sounds just like we're talking about business . I hear some people saying it has the potential to become a $10 trillion business . I would like to answer the question: Why are you so pessimistic? Why hasn't this business become a $100 trillion company? They will have something that no one else has: the satellite component .
From a data perspective in particular , this represents a significant advantage. Because data is new oil, new gold . That's why Musk believes now is the time to get started. However, if we pause and think about it for a moment , and discuss the concerns about CoreWeave or look at the AST , the bigger picture becomes clear.
Next, consider what's happening with investments in building gigawatt-scale GPU data centers . These are things these companies are talking about and cannot be ignored. Because ultimately, A leads to B, B leads to C, and C brings bullish results to NeoClouds, memory, chips, Nvidia, and so on . Everyone listening to this program probably owns Bitcoin, and likely acquired it in the same way .
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There are odds that are assigned to them. I've seen odds as low as 18-20% in the prediction market . I've seen much higher odds at various times . But what are the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger? Will you buy Tesla thinking the gap between the current price and the acquisition price will narrow? Will you buy SpaceX thinking the merger will create a giant company?
Or will you wait until the announcement ? Knowing that everyone has a different strategy , how will you deal with it? What kind of information will you get ? Well, for now, most people are buying SpaceX. In other words, the first so-called " trade" is to buy SpaceX . This is not simply because of this , but is based on the fundamentals we are looking at .
From the perspective of buying Tesla, I think investors want to see some kind of actual transaction, not just hear Musk talk . And when I think about the biggest opportunity , I think it's probably Tesla stock . Because the stock price, which is expected to be 370, 375, or whatever it may be, and will probably reach 500 in the trade , changes rapidly as investors anticipate the trade .
I own Tesla stock . I do not currently own any SpaceX stock . And then I published an article titled "Here are 5 reasons why I own Tesla stock." And the fifth one is something I wrote last year, I believe. The fifth is the merger of SpaceX and Tesla. I think at the time, people felt like, "Oh, that's insignificant ." I wasn't more than 50% certain either , but I felt like, "Well, this would be even better." It's hard to say now , but the main reason to buy Tesla stock might be that many people started to guess that this deal had an 80-90% chance of going through .
And then it will rise to the decisive point . If it's 370 today, it might become 420 or 450. And even if the deal doesn't go through for some reason , it would mean that there has been a significant price increase up to that point . Absolutely. Therefore, in my view, this is one of those deals that the market is still skeptical about .
And that's reflected in the price . Yeah. That means there's a significant discrepancy . Yeah. We've been saying there's an 80% chance this will happen within the last year, but now it feels like something extraordinary has to happen for it not to . Yeah. I think so too. I will read out some statistics .
I just want to know your reaction to that . Phil Rosen of Opening Bell writes that the top 15 companies in the S&P 500 account for 46% of the index's market capitalization . The top 10 companies' holdings account for 40% of the index . Is this something to be worried about? I'm worried if spending and what we're seeing aren't expanding .
Yeah. In other words, if Rosen were to do that a year from now , in my opinion, the statistics would be far more diverse . Because it's being paid for by large corporations . However, when it comes to software, infrastructure, energy, and cybersecurity , that will happen next year . In other words, the number of stocks held in the stock market is expanding .
However, since it returns to the multiplier effect, I think it's healthy. For every dollar you spend on an Nvidia chip , that dollar goes towards capital investment across other technologies . So, it will spread throughout the entire economy, right? Next up is Mike Zuckerdy . He writes that 13% of S&P earnings are above 88% of EPS .
What do you think? In other words, I think it's clear that investors are underestimating the scale and scope , and what that will ultimately lead to . If some kind of peace begins to come to the Middle East, and if interest rate hikes actually stop, whether after the midterm elections or in a poker game , and ultimately interest rate cuts are implemented, then the economy will still be very healthy.
I believe this market is poised to surge over the next 12 to 18 years , far exceeding what we see in earnings and capital investment cycles . I'm sure they'll be strong until the end of the year . Let's see what happens . But we're always talking about Bear . Bear refers to the past two recessions as catastrophes.
They typically appear on social media on Saturdays. No , that's true. Because often, Bull watches football with his family and touches the grass , Bear talks about catastrophe, and they open at 6 p.m. on Sundays . October 19th did not necessarily have to be a Monday . It also has to be Black Monday .
That's why it's always like that . However, in reality, there are millions of new individual investors in this market, but they are in their 20s or 30s and have no experience looking back at what happened 15 years ago . So, when they get scared, I think they have a theory , but these stories lead to my view on what makes up the market, whether it's bubbles, COVID, circular finance, geopolitics, or whatever .
I believe that the publication of Andrew Ross Sorkin's 1929 book had a far greater impact on people's thinking than we might realize . It's a wonderful book, incredibly well-written . I learned a lot . Of course, Sorkin is a good person . that's right . However, there are many people who take a small fragment from that and say, "Oh, of course 1929 will happen again ." So , while there are many things that influence generations , as you said, there are also many people who weren't even born in 2001 .
They weren't paying attention . I have absolutely no idea what 2000 or 2001 were like. Frankly speaking, when I hear older people claim to have experienced it, I just think, "Well, it's probably the same thing ." But that's precisely why I think many of the best investors I know have experienced things right in the middle of the 1987 dot-com bubble and financial crisis.
Because that's how history is made, and scars are left behind . By doing so , you can understand how different this time is. But the story is important. And that's important. And in this market, that cannot be ignored. And I believe this is the reality . In this market, we will continue to face a variety of challenges and challenges .
At one moment it might be in a state like Deep Seek , and at another moment it might be in a state like Core Weave . Memory stocks are cyclical, and this will continue in the future . Lance Roberts' chart shows that the S&P 500's P/E ratio to profitability has been declining towards the lower end of its range since 2006 , suggesting that valuations are not as high as they should be relative to corporate profitability .
What do you think? Ah, so I think this supports my view that productivity will continue to rise in the future . Corporate profitability could increase sharply in the future . However, this also suggests a healthy economy, given the debt burden on American companies . AI only improves productivity . However, as you and I have discussed, AI will create more jobs than it takes away in the next five years .
So, one of the things I've been thinking about is Silvia, the AI agent we're developing that specializes in personal finance . And what's particularly interesting are matters related to true personal finance, such as estate planning and tax strategies. The reasons for wanting to use AI are obvious.
AI excels at navigating complex matters, and in Silvia's case, personalized insights are far more valuable than simply searching "How can I lower my tax rate?" on Google, right ? In other words, people who visit silvia.com are looking for an AI agent specializing in personal finance . do you understand?
Since then, I've been approached by a huge number of people, multiple times a day, far more than you can imagine . It's like a joke: " When will Silvia invest my money ?" "When will the AI invest autonomously ?" "All I have to do is leave it with you ." It's like saying, "Hey Claude, make some money , but don't make any mistakes, " right?
I'm now starting to see several different versions of this . A friend of mine is working on something called Benchmark AI , and what they're doing with various models is very interesting, generating more index-based exposure . I also saw people trying to do day trading. There are companies like Autopilot, right ?
There are various types of players . How will that change market valuations ? We've been talking about how AI will transform the workplace from a productivity standpoint, but as AI starts making some investment decisions and becomes more widespread within investment committees and teams, will the situation change , or will it simply make it easier for humans to make those decisions ?
As AI begins to make some investment decisions and becomes more widespread within investment committees and teams , will the situation change, or will it simply make it easier for humans to make these decisions ? I believe AI can help the investment process, given the volume and complexity of the data involved .
I've always thought it will involve some kind of combination of humans and AI . Based on screening, reference preferences, and risk, AI can be helpful. However, I believe it can be argued that more efficient markets will emerge over time . And I view it positively. In other words , they are embracing technology .
Yeah. This is no different from what people said in the 80s about what would happen if electronic trading were introduced. Therefore, I think more people will come to accept it . And ultimately , I think the number of investors in the market will actually increase. I see it positively. Yeah. And interestingly, I was recently speaking with one of the major fintech companies, and they said that JP Morgan and various other legacy organizations are preventing agents from accessing the platform, and at the same time, not allowing agents to send money or conduct transactions .
This fintech company and its competitors are competing to see how they can open everything up, how they can create MCPs, and how they can get agents to do as much as possible. Both Robinhood and Coinbase have a form of segregated accounts. In other words, if you have $100,000 in your account , you can put $25,000 of that into your agent's account .
The agent can then freely trade using that account. It's almost as if we're looking at cryptocurrencies or other technologies . People must decide whether to support or oppose the agents . And that will be what separates the winners from the losers in the future . In other words, I think of it as a kind of guardrail for regulations.
In particular, when you start handling people's money in a highly regulated industry , I think there are very high hurdles to overcome, from regulations and cybersecurity to malicious actors . However, the situation is changing, and I don't view it negatively. I see it positively. When you returned from Korea, did you see two men fighting in front of a Starbucks?
That's exactly right . It's interesting, isn't it? Especially if you've been in South Korea or Taiwan and then come back here , you notice that things are different than before, right ? In other words, we can now truly feel that a cycle of technological innovation is actually taking place in this country.
But I think that's exciting and something we should embrace . My biggest concern is that the political situation, whether red, blue, or gray, will slow down innovation in this country . Yeah. If that happens, China will win . There is no room for argument. Yeah. What is the message to the bearish ? Let's end it there .
The message to bears is that over the past 25 years, many bears have missed out on all the transitional growth stocks. Because they don't see whether it's a success, a disaster, or just bad luck . Go to South Korea or Taiwan, see what the demand is like, and then come back here and see if it's still just as bearish .
I think that when I talk to very bearish investors, I often ask them, "Have you ever been to Taiwan or South Korea ?" They reply, "No, but..." So what I'm trying to say is that it's a deeply rooted problem. You need to understand what the demand is and why it's different . Many of the bearish people are very clever .
He makes excellent points in certain areas . There may always be more losers than winners , but you can't paint everything with the same brush . Like many software stocks, such as SaaS-a-palooza, it has risen 60% from its low. So, where should you go to find me online ? Yes, this is DivsTech from LinkedIn.
Please contact me. Right now is a good time, with an atmosphere like a flashlight in a tunnel. Therefore, it's always a good thing to be able to do these activities . Thank you to everyone who contacted me . Using a flashlight inside a tunnel is pretty great, isn't it? Well then, everyone, see you next time!
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