저자: AnthonyPompliano · 외국인
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결론: 버핏의 인플레이션 경고는 유효하며 Fed가 긴축을 이어가는 한 인플레이션 문제는 지속되고, 금리 피벗 시점은 불확실하다. 버핏 인용: 버핏은 자사 가구·주택·철강 등 비용 상승과 가격 전가가 진행 중이며 경기가 과열(red hot)이라고 언급했다. 철강 비용이 매일 오르고 있고 임금은 뒤따라 오른다고 말했다. 버핏 경고의 의미: 시장은 처음에 CPI가 계속 오를 것으로 봤지만, 7월 CPI가 9.1%에서 8.5%로 하락하자 일부 비판자들이 인플레이션 하락을 자축했다. 진행자는 이를 성급하다고 본다. 기저효과: 작년 6월부터 연말까지 CPI가 5%에서 7% 이상으로 올라 높은 기저가 형성됐다. 올해 8.5%는 그 위에 쌓인 수치라 CPI는 하락할 수 있으나 물가 수준 자체는 내려가지 않는다고 설명한다. 리스크 요인: 공급망 차질, 유럽 지정학 갈등, 겨울 에너지 위기 가능성을 언급했다. 불확실성이 크다고 강조했다. 통화정책 전망: Fed가 금리를 무한정 올릴 수 없어 결국 피벗(완화 전환)할 것이라고 봤다. 다만 그 시점 전에 인플레이션을 얼마나 잡을 수 있을지는 답하지 못했다. 출연자 결론: 버핏처럼 데이터를 많이 가진 투자자가 인플레이션 경고를 하면 주목해야 한다고 권고했다. 종목별 매수·매도 추천은 없었다.
다듬은 글
earlier this year warren buffett the greatest investor of our lifetime was asked about inflation and he issued a massive warning he said prepare now for huge inflation to be coming warren was using all sorts of data points inside of his companies seeing their costs rising and also passing on a lot of those costs to their consumers and raising their prices here's exactly what warren had to say in his issuance of this warning back earlier of 2022.
we're seeing very substantial inflation it's very interesting we're raising prices people are raising prices to us it's being accepted i mean it's not you know take home building i mean you know the cost of we've got nine home builders in addition to our manufactured housing and then uh operation which is the largest in the country so we really do a lot of housing the costs are just up up up steel costs just every day uh they're they're going up and that there hasn't yet been because the wage the wage stuff follows i mean if the uaw writes a three-year contract we got a three-year contract but if you're buying steel at general motors or some place you're paying more every day so it's an economy really it's red hot i mean and we weren't expecting it i mean all our companies when they they thought when we're allowed to go back to work you know with our various operations we closed the furniture stores i mentioned you know if they were closed for six weeks or so on average and they didn't know what was going to happen when they when they open up and you know they can't stop people from buying things and we can't deliver them and they say well that's okay because nobody else can deliver meter and we'll wait for three months or something to start of the backlog grows and then we thought it would end when the 600 payments ended and i think you know around august of last year it just kept going and it keeps going and it keeps going and it keeps going uh people have money in their pocket and and they pay the higher prices and when carpet prices go up in a month or two you know we announced the price increase for april for our cluster going up supply chains all screwed up you know for all kinds of people but it's almost a buying frenzy except certain areas you can't buy it you know everybody can't buy international air travel and there's so the money is being diverted from a little from a piece of the economy into the rest and everybody's got more cash in their pocket than except for meanwhile you know it's a terrible situation for a percentage of the people there's there's more inflation going on than quite a bit more inflation going on than people would have anticipated just six months ago or there abouts now what is fascinating about this is that when warren buffett issued this warning everyone thought that meant that cpi would just continue to go up and up and up but it hasn't actually cpi went from 9.1 to 8.5 in july and all of a sudden the critics they started to celebrate inflation was coming down right wrong we are now entering into a phase known as the base effect last year starting in june all the way through the end of the year the cpi inflation number went from five to over seven percent so this year as we continue to see very high inflation it's on top of last year's high numbers this is a compounding effect meaning that inflation is not just up 8.5 it's up 8.5 on top of the 5 it was up last year that base effect means that we should expect the cpi number to come down but inflation is still here and it is still punishing the people who are most vulnerable in our society warren buffett was right that we should prepare for huge inflation as the federal reserve continues to tighten financial conditions they are going to try to bring that number down but just because the cpi number actually comes down doesn't mean that we're going to roll back the price increases or that the average american family will be in a better position add in things like supply chain disruptions and the current geopolitical chess that is playing out on the continent of europe and now you can see how we are starting to enter into an energy crisis going into the winter months there's a lot of complexity there's a lot of uncertainty but inflation is still a massive problem eventually the federal reserve will run out of ammo they can't continue to raise interest rates forever unless they want to bankrupt the united states of america and so naturally at some point the fed will wave the white flag they will pivot and they will return to loose monetary policy the question is how much can they get inflation under control before they hit that moment i don't have those answers but somebody like warren buffett who has so much information at his fingertips and sees so much of the data coming from his own companies if he's issuing warnings about huge inflation on the horizon i would listen if i was you hey you did you like this video great make sure you subscribe like the video and see you next time
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