저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 이미 경기침체에 들어섰고 연준은 인플레이션보다 고용을 우선해 결국 실패할 것이라는 비관론. 시장 흐름: 최근 달러가 수년 만에 가장 약하게 움직였고 금은 1800달러대에서 1850달러 부근으로 회복 중이며, 주식은 하락 중이다. 시장이 긴축 사이클 이후 완화 사이클을 선반영하기 시작했다고 본다. 경기 판단: 1분기 GDP는 연율 -1.4%였고, 2분기도 마이너스 가능성이 높다. 소비 지출은 강해 보이지만 인플레이션에 따른 명목 지출 착시일 뿐이며, 타겟·월마트·시스코 실적과 실업수당 청구 4개월 최고치를 근거로 들었다. 연준 전망: 파월은 경기침체 상황에서 인플레이션과 싸울 의지를 밝힌 적이 없고, 볼커를 칭찬할 때도 금리 인상으로 경기침체를 만든 점은 인정하지 않았다. 침체 시 파월은 볼커와 다른 선택을 해 인플레이션을 방치할 것이며, 이는 경제를 더 악화시킨다고 주장. 금 관련: 금은 완만하게 오르고 있으나 폭발적이지는 않다고 언급. 리스크: 인플레이션 방치 시 스태그플레이션 장기화 가능성, 실업률 급등 가능성. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 경기침체 심화와 실업 급증, 연준의 정책 실패가 이어질 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
the federal reserve it seems like they are in control they are the driver of good times they're the driver of bad times and everything is one trade if the fed says we're gonna pump liquidity get long and shut up and let them just do their thing if they say they're going to pull the liquidity away basically get out of the market it seems like is that a fair categorization of what the fed's role in financial markets is today they're not in control of anything but certainly in the short run the markets trade off of the fed and what they believe the fed is going to do and i think the fed still has a large degree of credibility why i have no idea maybe because the people following the fed are just as clueless as the fed so when the blind you know is leading the blind you know the blind that are following along you know have no idea that they're following somebody who also can't see uh but you know reality is going to rear its head and it may have already done so at least beginning i mean i'm looking at the markets the last several days we've seen some pronounced weakness in the dollar finally i mean today is one of the weakest days in several years for the dollar who knows it might end up being the weakest day of several years you know we'll see gold is starting to a pick up i mean nothing explosive but we were below 1800 a few days ago now back at 1850-ish and so even as the stock market is going down and what i am thinking is that the markets are finally starting to look beyond the tightening cycle to the next easing cycle yes the fed is talking about how this super strong economy can withstand higher rates but meantime this super strong economy is probably already in a recession and we're not only just in a recession we're in a worse recession than what we call the great request session that we had following the 2008 financial crisis and remember we were six seven eight months into that recession and they still denied that we were in one in fact they said there was no recession anywhere in sight and we were in the middle of it uh and so i think they've made the same mistake again in overestimating the strength of the economy they think consumers spending money is economic strength it's not it's a reflection of inflation and the economy is actually very weak beneath the surface but when you look at the news uh yesterday from target uh from walmart the day before and now you know cisco's news today you can see uh that we're collapsing into recession that higher prices are taking a toll as are higher interest rates on the consumer's ability to keep on spending uh and unemployment is going to follow i mean look at uh today unemployment claims jumped to a four-month high i think we've already turned the corner and you know we're very close to a major spike i think up in unemployment and so that whole myth about this strong labor market is going to die and i think the markets are now pricing in the fact that the fed is going to be recognizing that the economy is not as strong as it thought and it's going to indicate that it's not going to raise rates as much or as quickly as it once believed so when you think about this let's talk about the idea of of this recession we also we obviously saw the q1 uh contraction i think it was minus 1.4 annualized uh of gdp do you expect q2 to be contraction as well and should we expect gdp to contract through the end of the year is this like a just get two quarters of it what is the gdp expectations that you have through the end of the year let's start there well i think it will be another negative print so we won't get that until what august or july july we get the numbers or something like that but i think there's a good chance that we'll get a a negative print i thought we would there was a good chance we were going to get a negative print in q1 very few people believed that and we ended up getting one and i think if we avoid one it's probably because they understated inflation because they always have to use a deflator to take the nominal gdp and make it real but if they're not using a big enough deflator because they're understating how much inflation has pushed up prices then they can kind of create the illusion that a contracting economy is growing but i think you know we're in recession whether it is officially revealed by the numbers or not but i think it's it's going to happen and then you know the fed's not going to fight inflation when we're in recession because all the fed's tough talk about we're going to do whatever it takes it's all predicated on this super strong economy and red-hot labor market that can withstand doing whatever it takes powell has never acknowledged his willingness to continue to fight inflation if the economy is in a recession i mean he's been asked that question but he's never answered it he always is very evasive and just changes the topic uh but i i think that if you you know kind of listen to his praise for uh paul volcker he is always you know specific to make sure he has never praised paul volcker for raising rates and uh pushing the economy into a recession to fight inflation he has always qualified his admiration preval volcker by saying i admired the fact that he did what he thought was right that's all he's willing to give volcker credit for is doing what he thought was right now maybe he didn't think that was right and i think when push comes to shove when he has to make a decision between stimulating the economy because it's in recession or fighting inflation he will not make the mistake that paul he will not make the same choice that paul volcker made he will make a different choice because he has a different set of beliefs yes he thinks inflation's a problem but not as big a problem as unemployment and a weak economy and i think he will you know ignore the inflation problem which means it's going to get so much worse which also means the economy is going to fare much worse because inflation is going to decimate it
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