저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 미국 CPI 인플레이션이 향후 1~3년 내 10% 수준까지 갈 수 있으며, 통화량 증가와 공급 차질로 인플레이션이 더 악화될 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 정부가 CPI 산정 방식을 바꾸지 않는다면 내년에 10%까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 통화 공급이 계속 확대되고 있어 인플레이션은 심화될 수밖에 없다고 주장. 부채한도: 옐런 재무장관이 부채한도를 올려야 채무를 제때 갚을 수 있다고 말한 것을 비판하며, 결국 추가 차입으로 이자를 갚는 구조이고 이는 폰지 사기와 같다고 주장. 기업 가격 전가: 2021년 생산자물가(PPI)가 소비자물가(CPI)보다 더 크게 올랐으며, 기업들이 일시적이라는 말을 믿고 마진으로 흡수했지만 2022년에는 가격 인상을 본격적으로 전가할 것이라고 봄. 기업들이 가격 인상을 시장이 받아들였다는 경험 때문에 더 올릴 유인이 커진다고 설명. 공급 측면: 파월 연준의 공급망 문제 발언을 비판. 팬데믹 때 공장을 멈추고 노동자를 휴직시켜 놓고 공급 부족을 놀라워하는 것은 모순이라고 지적. 통화 팽창과 생산 중단이 겹쳐 인플레이션이 '스테로이드'처럼 증폭된다고 주장. 리스크: 가격 인상이 과도하면 수요가 줄고 기업이 생산능력을 줄여 공급이 감소, 이것이 다시 가격을 밀어올리는 악순환이 될 수 있다고 봄. 금리·자산·종목 언급: 본 영상에서는 미국채금리, 금, 비트코인 등 개별 자산에 대한 구체적 방향 예측이나 목표가는 명확히 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
will we see 10 inflation in the official cpi number in the united states in the next three years you think i think we will unless they rigged the numbers again i mean i wouldn't put it past them but assuming they leave the cpi the way it is probably we might see 10 next year is inflation going to get worse in the coming year well it has to get worse and and in fact and again when you're talking about price increases you're measuring the consequence of inflation the inflation is the expansion of the money supply and we know money supply is going to keep expanding they're about to raise the debt ceiling right so we can keep uh going deeper into debt you know i always laugh whenever they talk about it janet yellen you know when she testified the other day she said six times the government's gonna be bankrupted the funny thing is she said we have to raise the debt ceiling because it's important that we pay our bills in full on time well if we paid our bills in full on time we'd have no debt right the reason we have a debt is because we don't pay our bills at all we borrow money so that we don't have to pay our bills and what janet yellen really means is that we need to raise the debt ceiling because we can't pay our bills we can't pay our bills to take more on more we have to take on more debt can i ask a serious question and yeah i i'm scared to ask you this because i'm going to give you like all the ammunition in the world if i am taking money from one investor or lender to pay back the original yes blender ponzi well there's two ways to look at it it's called refinancing people doing mortgages all the time right it's also called a ponzi scheme if they're investors that i'm not necessarily refinancing yes i'm literally just playing like a yes it is a ponzi scheme that's why bernie madoff said that the united states was running the world's biggest ponzi scheme and that what he did was nothing compared to that and i i used to look at his defense because no but he just mentioned it like hey come on i mean like he wasn't saying he said they do it but this was the thing did he really say that was really his defense yes and then the new york times wrote this piece and they mentioned it and they said well you know bernie madoff doesn't have any credibility right so and i used to joke and say wait a minute wait a minute he's got credibility on one thing yeah right so if he says he's trying to pull up yes exactly that's why i used to joke we should have made him secretary of the treasury the whole nature of what we were doing you know that's pretty good yeah and you know because but the thing is the government janet yellen when she tells everybody that if we don't raise the debt ceiling we're going to default that's an admission it's a ponzi scheme right bernie madoff would never be dumb enough to admit he was running a ponzi scheme right that's ponzi 101.
you keep it quiet right you don't tell everybody it's a ponzi scheme because they're not gonna okay all right so that's the debt let's go to social security because one of the things that i'm very interested all right wait before you do that i forgot to finish to answer the question as to why the inflation is going to be worse on a cpi look at um producer prices okay producer prices 2021 up more than consumer prices so businesses were seeing their prices costs rise more than what they passed on to their customers now why was that it's because a lot of businesses were reluctant to raise prices they're worried about losing sales to competitors and they were told that it's all transitory okay we'll take a hit for a few months it's transitory we don't want to reprice everything and then have to change the prices so businesses kind of absorbed the rising prices and and took a hit in their margins uh but i think by 2021 or 2022 rather a lot of these businesses are going to throw in the towel and they're going to say you know what we got to pass this on uh it's not temporary and i think you're going to see businesses much more willing to raise prices in 2022 than they were in 2021 and is this where you see corporate executives on their uh earnings calls being like oh we raised prices and like the customers liked it like it was basically like that's basically what people have said they've been like oh we raised prices and the market accepted it right they're not saying they liked it they're just saying they accepted our higher prices they tolerated it uh and therefore now they feel emboldened to do more of it because they've seen like hey we did a little bit we raised three or four percent nobody left actually in some cases demand is even higher and so if we raise it five or six percent from here then if nobody leaves we can just continue to play this game yeah i mean they're going to raise prices as much as they can i mean in general businesses want to maximize profits and so the reason you don't keep raising prices is eventually you lose sales but if all of your competitors are facing the same cost problems that you have when you raise prices other people have to raise prices too what ultimately happens though as you really start to raise prices significantly it does impact demand because not everybody can afford the higher prices and then what happens is businesses end up reducing capacity so they can achieve their profitability at a lower scale and then prices really start to go up because now supply is coming down because fewer businesses are providing these products or services uh and and you really get the spiral but what's driving it all is the money it's more money being created i mean they keep talking about the supply side problems i was you know just getting a kick out of powell's testimony because did you watch was that your super bowl were you were you sitting there and you you had a beer and like uh some steak and i didn't have refreshments or anything but um but powell was like well because somebody said to him well what did you get wrong you know now that he's saying it's not trans story and powell said well you know we got one thing wrong and that was this supply problem the supply i mean and he said but you know in fairness nobody could have predicted this this was crazy it came out of left field i mean nobody could have realized that the effect of the pandemic would have been like supply chain bottlenecks and i'm like what is this guy serious i mean so you basically shut down the entire economy right all these factories close you furlough all the workers you literally stop making stuff and now you're surprised that there's a shortage of stuff you're not making it anymore how could there not be a supply chain problem i pointed it out on my podcast in march of 2020 as soon as this happened i said i don't know why people are talking about covet as being deflationary this is inflation on steroids because not only are we flooding the world with money we're stopping the production of goods i mean we we're having less stuff and more money to buy it this is like you know double inflation uh so inflation and you know inflation is more money and chasing less stuff well when factories shut down they're not producing stuff
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