저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 공식 발표보다 훨씬 심각하며, 연준과 바이든 정부 정책은 실패하고 있다는 주장. 인플레이션 통계: 정부가 말하는 6.2%는 과소평가이며, 현행 CPI 방법론(품질 조정, 대체 효과 등)이 왜곡돼 있다고 주장. 과거 CPI 방식을 적용하면 2021년 인플레이션은 1970년대 어느 해보다 나쁘고, 13~15% 수준일 것이라고 추정. 수입·수출물가 지표가 더 현실적이며, 실제 체감 물가 상승률도 6%보다 훨씬 크다고 언급. 연준 의장 파월: 바이든이 파월을 재지명할 것이라고 예측했음. 파월은 물가안정 임무를 달성하지 못했다고 평가. 바이든 입장에서는 현상 유지가 정치적으로 안전한 선택이라고 해석. 연준 대안 정책: 연준이 금리 결정권을 시장에 넘기고, 미국채 보유를 청산하며, 정부 부채 monetization을 중단해야 한다고 주장. 이 과정에서 대규모 손실이 발생하고 그 부담은 납세자에게 돌아간다고 언급. 재정 정책(Build Back Better): 정부의 비용 추정(0달러)은 비현실적이라고 비판. 세수 가정(부유층·IRS 집행 강화)은 효과가 작고, 중산층 과세 강화로 이어질 것이라고 예상. 프로그램은 일시적이라고 하지만 실제로는 영구화될 것이라고 주장. 개별 프로그램 비용 전망: 무상 유치원은 수요 증가와 학교 등록금 인상으로 비용이 예상보다 크게 늘어날 것. 유급 가족·의료 휴가는 남용 가능성이 커 가장 큰 비용 요인이 될 것이라고 경고. 과거 PPP·실업급여 확대 사례를 근거로 제시. 리스크: 재정 적자 확대, 부채 부담 증가, 인플레이션 장기화, 정책 남용에 따른 비용 급증. 비트코인: 언급은 있었으나 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 크립토 투자자들이 세금을 제대로 내지 않는다는 취지의 발언만 존재. 출연자 전망: 인플레이션은 지속적이고 정책은 실패할 것이며, 정부 재정은 예상보다 훨씬 악화될 것이라는 비관론.
다듬은 글
they say inflation's 6.2 percent they've been saying that it's transitory we now have the retirement of the word transitory like literally they should have held an award ceremony put it in the hall of fame it's retired yeah what do you think about them not wanting to use the word transitory anymore does that mean that it's permanent or does that mean that they just don't want to talk about it anymore well i think they're tired of trying to obfuscate as to what they meant i mean i think initially when they said transitory they meant transitory but then when it turned out not to be transitory they had to kind of redefine the word and kind of you know to try to save face uh but at this point they've they've twisted it into such a pretzel that i think they just want to walk away from it because they really looked ridiculous in the face of overwhelming evidence that inflation was not transitory uh to try to claim that it was but i still think the methodology that we're using today to calculate inflation is deeply flawed and when they contrast what's happening today to the 1970s they never talk about the fact that the cpi that exists today is nothing like the one that existed back in the night and this is cost of living versus cost of uh goods yes i mean and basically now it's the cost of surviving i mean by by today's methodology look it doesn't matter if you're eating philly mignon or dog food as long as you're eating uh then you got nothing to complain about right they don't really look at the quality even though they claim to uh when they have substitution or hedonics but that's a savage car the whole thing is rigged now but if if we were measuring prices today and we just used the same cpi that they used back then i think the inflation in 2021 was as bad if not worse than any single year of the 1970s and so what percentage would that be i don't know probably 13 14 probably fifteen but over ten yeah i mean if you look at import export prices those numbers are more real and that's about what you see because they're they're actually taking a look at how much are the goods that we're importing costing what are the goods that we're exporting it's just apples to apples and you can actually see the prices although anecdotally most of the price increases that people you know point out to me i get a lot of emails and people show me hey this is what i just bought and hear the exact same thing i bought last year or six months ago and you look at the price increases uh they're much bigger than six percent okay second thing is that we now have jerome powell as the fed reserve chairman going to be renominated and continue good decision bad decision or would you have done something different if you were president chef well there probably would be no fed if i was i would have already gotten rid of it but um look i predicted on my podcast that biden would take the coward's way out and re-nominate a pal i mean why is it howard's way out well you know you don't want to go out on the limb and put somebody else in there who's your person because then if anything goes wrong it's your fault right you just leave the guy there that's there because hey everybody wants them there um and then if every something goes wrong hey it's not my fault look he's not my guy trump appointed him and you know the republicans wanted me to keep them and uh so it's it's easier for him than going out on a limb because if if the economy does well or powell does a good job then he gets credit for reappointing him uh but to go out in left field and and go for a brainerd or somebody else and then something goes wrong you know what why i mean trump kind of had to get rid of yellen because he spent his whole campaign bashing yellen uh basically for doing exactly what he then bashed powell for not doing until powell got his mind right and started doing exactly what trump criticized yellen for doing um but look he's done a lousy job i mean if you want to look at the fed's uh you know mandate of price stability we clearly don't have it um but you know i i think really what the fed's job is as far as biden is concerned is helping me get reelected and kicking the can down the road until the next election do you think anyone would do something different like what would you have done if you were in that seat well you know what i would do you know i would let the markets know that the fed is no longer going to be setting interest rates that the market was going to do that and we were going to start liquidating our holdings of u.s treasury because they should and of course in so doing there would be massive losses uh that and you know the bill goes to the u.s taxpayer you know as the fed unwinds its balance sheet any losses are i o u's to the u.s taxpayer because the u.s government has to make the fed whole um for that um i also you know i would let the government know that the fed is no longer in the business of monetizing government debt and that if you want your bill back better you better figure out how you're going to pay for it how okay this is what i want to talk about as well is uh they say it's cost zero dollars is that of course is i mean they always say that because their assumptions are ludicrous like break it down for me well the revenue assumptions they're not going to get the revenue a lot of the revenue is supposedly going to come from extra irs agents you know getting the rich to pay their fair share well you know they're not going to get much more money out of the rich uh there's not that many rich people other than you crypto guys um but and you don't pay taxes anyways you never sell you're so salty you're so salty you guys never sell so they're not getting anything you'd be one of the richest people in the world if you bought bitcoin you first heard about it keep going but um but they're not going to get the revenue i mean they're obviously mainly going to target the middle class that's where the extra irs enforcement is going but it's hard to get blood from a stone so i don't think they're going to get a lot of revenue meanwhile all these new programs are going to cost so much more than they think i mean first of all they act as if the programs are going to go away in you know five years because they don't want to count the spending in the out years although we all know that these programs never go away once they're there they're there forever i mean we're still dealing with temporary programs from the second world war you know the war ended well why are these temporary programs still in effect right they never go away there's an old saying it was milton friedman there's nothing as permanent as a temporary government program so to pretend that these programs are going to sunset is nonsense but also they have grossly underestimated the cost because the government doesn't understand moral hazard they don't understand what happens so part of the buildback better is everybody gets free preschool well the cost of preschool is going to go way up once the government makes it free because now the demand for preschool goes way up and now the spree schools start jacking up their tuition because they know the defense industry the defensive says oh you're gonna pay us all this money we're gonna keep increasing the cost of it to you because we got a ton of money it's just like look what government did to college tuition before the government started subsidizing college tuition and guaranteeing loans college tuition was cheap government gets involved and it costs a fortune so it's gonna it's they're gonna end up spending a lot more on preschool than they think but i think the biggest one is going to be if it stays in there because the senate might get rid of it but that is the paid family medical leave because everyone's going to take that they just assume that well only the people that actually have a medical emergency are going to ask for their four-week paid vacation no i mean didn't they learn their lesson from the ppp or the extended unemployment benefits if you tell an american that they can have a four-week paid vacation at 90 percent of salary every single year and all they have to do is claim they have to take care of a sick friend or family member you don't think they're going to say that brother just got sick damn everybody
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