Cathie Wood: Bitcoin is going to 560K in 5 Years

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결론: 비트코인은 단기 조정에도 장기적으로 상승할 것이며, 2026년까지 56만 달러에 도달할 수 있다는 낙관론. [캐시 우드의 핵심 주장] 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 2026년까지 56만 달러(현재 대비 약 10배)에 이를 수 있다고 봤다. 기관투자자들이 포트폴리오의 1~5%를 비트코인에 배분할 것이라고 전망했다. [근거 수치와 배경] 영상 기준 비트코인은 일주일 전 6만 9천 달러 고점에서 6만 달러 아래로 하락한 상태였다. [비트코인 vs 금 비교] 비트코인은 지난 10년 거의 매년 가장 높은 수익률을 기록했다고 주장했다. 금 시가총액은 약 11~12조 달러이며, 비트코인이 금 시총에 도달하면 '플립'이 일어날 것이라고 주장했다. 금은 최근 1년간 약 1% 하락, 비트코인은 약 200~250% 상승했다고 언급했다. [인플레이션 논리] 연 6.2% 수준 구매력 하락을 근거로 인플레이션 헤지 자산으로서의 비트코인 우위를 강조했다. 경제지 이코노미스트가 인플레이션을 아무도 예상하지 못했다고 보도한 점을 비판했다. [공급 구조] 비트코인 발행 상한 2,100만 개 중 약 90%가 이미 유통 중이라 공급이 고정되어 있다고 강조했다. [조건/리스크] 변동성은 있으나 오히려 우호적이라고 봤다. 온체인 분석 데이터 확인 필요성을 언급했다. [향후 전망] ETF 승인 및 기관·국가 채택 확대 시 가격 상승을 예상했다. [출연자 전망] 사회자 Pompliano 역시 기관 채택 확대로 강세 전망에 동조했다.

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01. kathy wood everyone in crypto knows her and she came out with some news while everyone was screaming and saying bitcoin fell bitcoin bull market is over it's over it's over it's over watching the price fall from 69 000 an all-time high a week ago to under 60 000 this week traders getting flushed out people are scared kathy wood came in with the voice of reason and said no no no no no hang on a second bitcoin i believe is still going to go over 500 000.

02. i believe 560 000 by 2026. she's got a bunch of models that show all the price appreciation and stuff like that but her real thesis is simple kathy wood believes that all institutional investors will be required or most of them at least will be required to put a portion of their investment portfolio in bitcoin she thinks up to five percent most institutional investors will do these people have billions and trillions of dollars that are sitting on the sidelines whether they're invested in something else or just dry powder waiting to be allocated to an asset class and bitcoin she believes will be that asset class so if we look at the bitcoin pullback here we we went up we almost breached 60.

03. we were very close to 60. we went to 69 000 in bitcoin about a week ago seven to ten days ago and we've come crashing down crashing down they're saying now we're down below 60. uh will's going to tell us what the mechanics of everything on chain looks like but ultimately what kathy's saying is don't be concerned this isn't this isn't a concern at all she's allocated a bitcoin a bunch of other people corporations entities and countries are also and she's saying this is not something to be concerned about and the general way i think about this is it's a no-brainer right it's a no-brainer what have we seen over the last few years the people that were the early adopters of this whether it was corporations putting on their balance sheet whether it was uh billionaires rich individuals or institutional investors countries now with el salvador anyone that has been buying a material amount of bitcoin for an extended period of time and the whole key right and you don't have to buy billions and billions and billions of dollars it was just getting off zero and what we have found and these people will tell you all the people that have already done this right the same people i just mentioned all of those people will say one thing that one two three four percent allocation that they gave the bitcoin has outperformed everything else it's outperformed everything else because while bitcoin is volatile that's true that's true when they say it is volatile that is true there is volatility in the market but volatility can also be your friend bitcoin has appreciated much more than any other asset in the market it has been the best performing asset essentially every year over the last decade so what kathy wood is saying is these institutional investors will do it for a few different reasons one bitcoin is a non-correlated asset it gives you asymmetric returns relative to stocks bonds currencies commodities et cetera bitcoin not only outperforms them but does it on a on a non-correlated adjusted basis so when you start to think about what assets these institutional investors will go look at bitcoin as a one two three four to five percent hedge makes a lot of sense right and traditionally gold has served uh as this purpose right gold every institutional investor whether they own it or not most of them have some small allocation to gold some ten percent some five percent some one percent some zero but most of them have at least something and i would say that the difference between bitcoin and gold is we're at a new age this is the new generation of gold everyone has says it every rich billionaire out there every institutional investor everyone in financial markets is coming to an agreement at once that bitcoin is the new age gold it is digital gold but better if we listen to mark cuban the other day everyone likes to give him crap say he doesn't understand bitcoin he understands bitcoin very well from a digital store value perspective he said it is the best store of value on the planet and that's why he owns it and he's correct bitcoin is the best store value on the planet it's proven that over the last year while gold has been down we're seeing record inflation we're seeing historic levels of inflation your purchasing power is being reduced at a historic rate you're literally losing 6.2 percent year over year of purchasing power and that's just what we know as we talk about every day some of these people are telling us on the ground people who own businesses who own companies are saying it's 15 it's 20 it's even 25 they can't hire workers goods are extremely expensive they are raising prices to do it and you are losing purchasing power and what has gold done gold is supposed to serve as that inflation hedge asset and it has failed it's failed tremendously it has failed really bad it is down year over year it's down one percent year over year bitcoin is up over 200 250 year over year it has proven it is knocked out we might as well hold the funeral for gold gold is done gold is done not only has the price proven it that's the ultimate test to me right the market decides the market came in and said bitcoin is a better store value it is a better inflation hedge asset and the price appreciated because there was increasing demand for it demand for gold decreased over time the price went down but ultimately gold it it's just math right if you look at gold not only is it programmatic we don't know how much we have a general idea of how much gold is out there we think we know right but the supply is not really known it's considered scarce but bitcoin we know for sure we know exactly how much bitcoin is being entered into the market into circulation every single day we know how much is existing we know how much is held by certain entities and wallets we know how much has apparently been lost forever we know how much has hasn't moved in 90 days the on-chain metrics with cash with catch which kathy mentioned uh has become an important part of this because you can see exactly almost in real time what is going on in the bitcoin network we're going to be able to see people that come in and buy billions and billions and billions of dollars of bitcoin and what they're going to do is they're going to move these off exchanges they're going to purchase them and they're going to store them and we're going to be able to tell in real time this is a transparent market it's unlike anything we have ever had before we don't know what's what's happening in the stock market most of the time hey we have an uh quarterly earnings report we hear a little bit about it the stock goes up or down based on if you hit or miss estimates that's not cool that's not the way to go bitcoin is completely transparent not only in its supply but in its trading and transaction volume also and i think what kathy is saying here is essentially we're going to see institutional investors opt into that system they're going to say hey that's the kind of market we want to be involved in and i think ultimately what we're going to find is billions and billions and billions of dollars are going to flow into the market and what's the one thing we talk about all the time when the supply is constrained and fixed and we know exactly how it's going to happen based on software math and it's programmatic all you have to worry about is the demand side we know we know for certain that 90 almost 90 of bitcoins supply that will ever ever circulate the 21 million bitcoin is currently in existence currently in existence and circulating there's 90 of it already there we know exactly when the last 10 percent will come into circulation we know it for sure and the thing is with gold and other assets you don't know anything nothing is certain monetary policy could change fiscal policy could change company earnings could change asset allocation could change there could be uh stock buybacks you could issue more shares you could do all these things with bitcoin we are certain so that makes it super simple from a demand standpoint so all you're really betting on is this technology going to continue to adopt are people going to continue to demand this are people going to join the bitcoin network are more people going to buy and purchase bitcoin are more people going to hold the asset i think for sure and i think a lot of other people watching the show would agree with me that that's for sure going to happen and if supply is fixed and demand continues to increase not only from a retail perspective but we're talking billions of dollars from institutions now that is what is going to happen the price is going to appreciate we're talking about 10x from here a little a little less than 10x right uh appreciation if we get to 560.

04. that's gold that's gold and that's why i made the comparison to gold earlier because the gold market cap is 11 12 trillion dollars right now a little over 12 11 11 trillion dollars and if we get to gold that flip's gonna happen i i i think that flip's gonna happen and what we're gonna see is institutions are gonna stop allocating the gold they're gonna start allocating to bitcoin and that's gonna eventually take over i think what's going to be fascinating to watch is how much time this takes if we go to 2026 that's five years from now that's really not that long right so there's going to be another halving cycle and we'll see how the price turns out but the thing that i think is going to be fascinating is going to be watching this play out in real time and will is going to be key to that right so will is going to come on in a few minutes here and will's going to show us exactly what is happening from an on-chain analytics perspective why the price has gone down uh a considerable amount over the last few days where he thinks we are in the midst of this bull market how long he thinks it will continue what prices he still thinks we can reach and so on so i think kathy is right i think we're going to see some explosion here as more institutional investors adopt it i think any institutions that can join in and get in now is smart it is an asymmetric bet it's going to return anything the volatility is your friend in this situation right we're watching the government uh see record inflation the economist had an article out this morning in our tweet that said no one saw it coming literally everyone saw it coming everyone saw inflation coming you introduced 40 of the money supply of new money into the economy over the last 12 to 24 months and the economist a publication that prides itself on evidence of producing financial uh evidence and analysis is literally saying that no one saw it coming hey the people with laser eyes on twitter saw it coming they were very loud about it they've been screaming about it for the last 12 to 24 months and they told you that this is what was going to happen and what we've seen is bitcoin has reacted to that bitcoin has appreciated in price and that is the only evidence you need in my mind is that bitcoin versus gold has drastically outperformed in the flash of historic inflation so i think we're going to see is institutions are going to continue to adopt us the people that adopt it sooner than later will be the biggest winners they will benefit the most from this and everyone else will be left on the sidelines and miss out on record price appreciation etfs might eventually get a approved spot etfs i mean and then we'll see other institutions come to the market as more vehicles get approved as more corporations adopt it as more nation-states make it legal tender as more billionaires and retail investors continue to buy it as the asset becomes more scarce as the circulating supply continues to dwindle the price has to go up if demand continues to increase and supply is fixed we know this we'll see it play out in real time i think the next few years are going to be fascinating but we'll see