저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 레버리지 청산과 기관의 이탈로 큰 폭락 위험이 크며, 금이 다음 상승장을 이끌면 비트코인의 존재 이유가 약해진다. 비트코인 폭락 위험: 비트코인은 2만 달러에서 3천 달러로 약 80% 하락한 전례가 있고, 6.5만 달러에서 4만 달러 아래로 빠르게 떨어진 적도 있어 변동성은 여전히 크다. 레버리지와 청산 연쇄: 고래 보유자와 기관 매수자가 늘었고, 비트코인을 담보로 대출받은 포지션이 많아 30%가량 하락 시 대규모 강제 청산이 발생할 수 있다. 청산 매도가 연쇄 하락을 부른다는 주장이다. 기관의 단기 성격: 기관들은 장기 보유자가 아니라 단기 트레이드로 들어왔으므로 큰 하락이 오면 20~30% 손실을 감수하고라도 빠져나갈 것이라고 본다. 금과의 비교: 2011년 이후 금은 약 10년간 횡보했지만, 그 전 10년(2001~2011)에는 약 300달러에서 1,900달러로 크게 올랐다. 금이 다시 2001~2011년과 비슷한 5~10배 급등을 보이면 비트코인의 대안 논리는 무너진다고 주장한다. 비트코인의 실체 비판: 비트코인은 금처럼 전기 전도, 보석, 산업용 등 실물 용도가 없고, 채굴도 실제 금 채굴이 아닌 수학 문제 풀이라고 비판한다. 출연자 전망: 피터 쉬프는 비트코인에 부정적이며 금의 장기 상승을 확신한다. 1~3개월 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 수치 예측은 없다. 리스크: 비트코인 급락, 레버리지 청산, 금 급등 시나리오가 주요 리스크 요인이다.
다듬은 글
what happens to bitcoin the price of bitcoin doesn't plummet bitcoin could crash before that happens i mean i don't know what the pin is i don't know by the way to all our listeners i should say like i am i'm a peasant in this room when it comes to like knowledge of of cryptocurrency and the blockchain but i i just i don't see any other event that big that would plummet bitcoin other than some sort of government federal reserve before without any kind of i'm talking about a like well 26 we saw it happen multiple times right 40 to 50 percent dropping no we're just not just which is so much bigger but we're so much weird yeah bitcoin's so much bigger now you know the higher you are the more there is to fall well remember you know when it went up to 20 000 the first time right people were saying oh the big volatility of the past is gone you know we're not now that it's you know so mainstream and now that it's so high you don't have to worry and then it went from twenty thousand to three thousand right so it has these big eighty percent drops uh and then you know it went it went up to sixty five thousand and then a couple of weeks later it was back down below forty thousand i mean now it got pumped back up again but the idea that hey you just have to accept this kind of volatility as par for the course bitcoin can easily drop 80 you know in the next week and then there's no guarantee it's going to come back it could drop another 80 and then another eighty percent people just look back and say well every time bitcoin has gone down it's come back it's only been around for 10 years there's no historical data there's and listen my my belief on it too it just add on to it is that there may be even more risk now because you have whale holders that are industrial buyers and more than anything you have these absolutely insanely leveraged positions on on currencies that that a 30 or 20 30 drop could liquidate a mass portion of these leveraged holders there are a lot of people who have big gains in bitcoin they have been reluctant to realize those gains a they don't want to pay the tax correct and b they're afraid of missing out on future appreciation so what they've done is they've borrowed against that bitcoin but you know if the price starts to drop they get a margin call they don't have the cash their bitcoin just gets sold into a vacuum because you get these for selling when there's not a lot of buyers and then the market starts to implode and that triggers more margin calls as the price goes lower and lower so i think there's a lot more vulnerability now in the market i think some of these institutions that have gone in you know these guys are not huddlers like they're not in forever right they're in it as a trade so they got in they want to jump on a bandwagon and make some money but they have traitor mentalities they will cut and run if they see a big break and they want out of that trade they'll take a 20 30 percent loss and they'll move on we've seen it they're not going to go down with the ship because they're not you know you know like religious fanatics about bitcoin they only saw it as a way to make some quick money and if all of a sudden they see they're losing money and the trend is turned they'll get out and one thing ironically that could do it would be a big move up in gold because one of the the reasons that bitcoin has gotten so popular bitcoin started in about what 2011 right gold at 2011 hit 1900 and over the last 10 years you know gold's 1800 so gold's gone nowhere and bitcoin's gone from nothing pennies to 60 000 right and so everybody wants to compare gold to bitcoin in fact when they you know represent bitcoin in a in a physical form even though it has no physical form they they make a coin they make it gold they make it look like gold it's counterfeit gold right it's fool's gold because it has none of the properties that gold has it's not an actual metal you can't conduct electricity with it you can't make jewelry out of it you can't you know put it inside a a filling or you can't use it in aerospace i mean gold is a the most useful valuable metal on the periodic table and bitcoin doesn't have any of those uh characteristics it looks like it but they they pretend that it's gold no no there's some guy got in trouble for selling these on the street because it it's a little gold bitcoin is a bee with like money signs through it has like lasers shooting yeah but it helps again human race very simple species and it's it's hard to imagine this this cryptocurrency floating around in the ether because that's kind of all it is so putting something physical to it helps us yeah yeah but also they want you to think you're buying gold that's why they say they have bitcoin miners nobody's mining bitcoin they're solving math wait you're telling me there's no guy with a pick ax so but they want to act like it's gold that was like part of the the con but over the last decade where bitcoin has been on the scene gold has been going sideways and and that's enabled the bitcoiners to say you see this is better than gold it's the new gold this gold 2.0 gold's not going anywhere well what they forget is that the 10 years before bitcoin came on the scene gold went from under 300 to 1900 so 10 years so gold had this huge move and has it done that kind of parabolic move uh historically at other times the only time you really saw that big a move was let's say in the 70s but we had a big move and now we consolidated for a while and you know remember people during the last 10 years you had a big boom in the stock market everybody was risk-taking everybody wanted a big return gold is a safe haven it's a store of value it's not a get rich quick scheme it's a i don't want to go broke it's if you're rich and you want to stay rich you buy gold it's not about getting rich and so when you have this 10-year period of consolidation now all of a sudden bitcoin has the spotlight but i think gold now is getting ready to break out of this phase i think gold's going to have another big move similar to the one it had uh from 2001 to 2011 where it could go up 5x 10x right a big move and when that happens all of a sudden you destroy the the reason for bitcoin because now real gold is going up so why settle for a cheap imitation oh
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