저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 소파이(SOFI) 주가는 단기 약세 흐름이나 장기 투자자에게는 매수 기회로 봤고, 차마스 팔리하피티야의 지분 매도는 펀더멘털 훼손이 아닌 자금 회수로 해석함. 가격 기술적 분석: 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림 수준인 21.35달러 하회 시 하락 압력 가능, 현재 약 20.82달러로 해당 선 아래에 위치. 다음 지지선은 19.27달러이며, 과거에도 이 부근에서 반등한 이력 있음. 단, 시장 타이밍은 예측 불가. 거래량 분석: 최근 며칠간 거래량이 장기간 중 가장 낮은 수준이며, 낮은 거래량 속 주가 하락으로 일부 투자자가 공포로 차익실현 중이라고 진단. 추세 분석: 2021년 9월 이후 3일 연속 하락은 한 차례뿐이었으나 이번 3일 연속 하락으로 추세가 깨질 가능성 언급. 추세가 깨지면 19.27달러까지 도달 가능성이 있으며, 19.22달러 부근에서 추가 레버리지 콜(LEAPS) 매수를 계획. 차마스 지분 매도 해석: 모든 투자자가 성과 좋은 사업에서 자금을 회수해 다른 곳에 투자하는 일반적 관행이며, 소파이 사업 펀더멘털은 변하지 않았다고 주장. 지분 매도가 곧 수익성 악화를 의미하지 않는다고 강조. 애널리스트 리포트: 목표가 자체보다 리포트 세부 내용을 중시하며, 자신의 밸류에이션상 35달러도 가능하다고 언급. 기업 성장 요인: 소파이가 CNBC에 '머니 댄스' 광고를 공격적으로 집행 중이며, 은행 인가(bank charter) 뉴스 기대감 언급. 인가 발표 후 주가 반응은 2~3일 내 10~15%의 차익실현 조정 가능성 전망. 비교 사례: 렌딩클럽(LC)이 은행 인가 뉴스 후 상승 후 하루 만에 10% 하락했던 사례를 들어 유사 패턴 가능성 제시. 리스크: 본인 의견이 틀릴 수 있다고 명시. 레버리지 옵션 보유자는 단기 손실 위험 존재. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 소파이 추가 매수 의향 표명, 단기는 19~20달러대 조정 후 반등 기대와 추가 매수 계획.
다듬은 글
so what will be sofia's life without chamath exciting and thriving let's break this down so chamath came after hours and said that he is selling 15 of sofa and twitter went nuts i read few comments and some of the folks were saying goodbye so far i mean this is really funny now if you are in this for the long term then this is nothing but a wonderful buying opportunity but if you had calls expiring this week then i can totally understand your pain so i posted in our patreon the audio file of the fireside chat and you can just hear the confidence in anthony noto's voice also i just read a report from one of the analysts which i will be covering in my next video and you can see the confidence on all sides of the fence so is this a buying opportunity or should we wait well let's look at this together and i will share what i plan on doing as i would eventually would like to add more to my current position and as a reminder please click on the like button and consider subscribing if you enjoy content like this okay so sofi was among many other stock that lost almost 10 percent in the last four days stock market has been really crazy it's on the fence nobody can decide on which direction it wants to go and now this news that's a lot especially if you have just entered this company and some might question that is this the right time to buy or add more or just wait so let's look at some of the data to find out the answers and if you enjoy talking about stuff like this then plan on joining our discord and patreon as we have an amazing group of people and our family is growing i just opened another 100 seats and i will close it for a while after we get to 200 to make sure we have meaningful conversations on the discord so now let's take a look at the chart to see where the price is right now and what is tier telling us and as they say ta is only right or technical analysis only works until it works so take it for what it's worth okay so this is the chart right here and as you can see i have fibonacci level drawn on the chart over here and in my previous video i talked about that if sulfite drops under 21.35 then we could see some downward pressure and right now so far is sitting under 2135 of course right now when i checked last it was sitting at about 20.82 and it's under of course 2135 which is this the blue line that you see over here it's 61.8 percent level on fibonacci retracement so now the next stop according to ta is 19.27 right here this is the next stop where the stock or the sofa stock should find some support as you see previously also it dropped it found some support and it bounced back and then right now it's looking over here now will it drop to 1927 no one knows we cannot time the market we can only make educated guess now let me share some volume data and then let's see if the price respects the history so as you can see over here this is the volume right now as you can see up until when i took the screenshot and of course this will be updated after hours because we have more volume coming in so from the last few days these days have been the lowest volume day for so far in a long time as you can see from before we had this 28 million back in november first and then we had this huge 43 million when the earnings were announced and then after that the volume has been gone down and then yesterday 11 17 we had this much volume and then today also is a low volume day so with the volume levels low and prices going down folks are slowly taking profit as they are getting scared of the market overall so now let me share some trend in the next chart so since september this is the next chart right here for so far and i'm pretty sure you can see it clearly but i'm going to enlarge in just a second so since september of 2021 there was only one time where the price traded lower for so far for more than three days in a row and all the red is the sell-off days and green of course is the profit day so if you look over here this is all the way in september of 27th this was the only week when we had tuesday wednesday thursday as the red days followed by a green friday after that any time if the stock has traded two days in a row has touched green the following day or if it has traded like look one two three four four days in a row of green and then red i know it's not very clear but you can see the red and green colors over here now this time is a little bit different we had three red days and i was really looking forward to tomorrow because i thought that we are going to see some green tomorrow on so far given what the history is telling us but now with chamat's news we are going to break this trend and if the trend breaks then we can see the price level reaching up to that 1927 level right here and touching this level so i'll be watching and monitoring this very carefully so now if so far trades lower tomorrow on this news then of course as i said we'll have a chance to see the 1922 level and that'll be a place where i'll be looking to add few more leaps to my portfolio if we bounce back then i'm happy with my current position but if it dips below then i'll be looking for more plays now i'm gonna change gears for a second here so with chamat's news coming out that he's selling 15 of stake in the company what was that about see any investor doesn't matter who it is and where they're investing they eventually take out capital for example if you have two businesses running and you want to or one business is doing really well while the other is suffering you are not going to go in the market and take money from the market and pay interest on that money you are going to go to your better business or basically business that's doing better and then take the money out to help support the struggling business that's a very very common practice in business that's what chamath is doing sofa is doing good and well for them now does that mean so far is not a good business absolutely not so sofa for sure is an amazing business i mean there is nothing wrong with sophie nothing has fundamentally changed for the company and that's why i say these kind of news are very very important for us investors to take a look at i'm not saying just blindly play these news no we need to make sure we understand what's going on here if he's taking 15 out to put in other companies that means so far is giving him good returns or has given him good returns and that's why he's taking out he knows that he can make the difference or the money that he's taking out right now he can make it back when so far it runs like crazy in the next few years and of course i'm talking as a long-term investors i have options and all other things that i'm playing are long-term i'm not paying short term i have stocks or regular shares and i have some leaps as you probably all know you have seen it in my previous videos so i'm not at all worried on a news like this and especially when analysts come and give a new price target i'm always looking at the details in the reports not the price target because i can give a price target of 35 dollars tomorrow to so far according to my own valuation nobody is going to challenge that and that is why i don't really pay much attention on the price targets i look at the details inside the reports to see what they are reporting because they sometimes see things that you and i can miss so that is why i feel this is a wonderful opportunity for so far of course as a long-term investor you are looking to add more shares or looking to add more options these are the days when you need to do it so so far as a company is thriving on all front just yesterday i heard their money dance commercial on cnbc in my car and they are aggressively advertising and growing we are expecting bank charter news and i'm sure they're also getting ready to release so i feel these could be some amazing buying opportunities also some of you commented on the last video about so far going down after the charter news and that lending club did not go down why do you think sophie is going to go down so if you look at the chart lending club went up a day after the news but then dropped 10 percent the following day but finished strong at the end of the week 10 on a 10 stock is only a dollar but it's a huge amount if you look at if somebody has put in like a million dollars that's a 100 000 loss right there for them so i expect the same or similar pattern with so far again this is my opinion and i could be completely wrong but profit taking will take place as always does from these stocks i'm not saying that the stock is going to go down to ten dollars no i'm saying that we could see a profit taking up about 10 to 15 percent two days after the charter is announced i will link my trading versus investing video over here do check it out if you have not seen it as it shows how i pick and choose stocks to trade versus invest and there is a big difference i hope i provided and join our patreon and come over to discord to chat with some amazing like-minded people and as a reminder next week i'll be away so it'll be a very slow week in terms of videos as always an absolute pleasure to be here and share all of this with you until next time you all have a sparkling day
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