저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon이 신용 사이클 악화 시 손실이 예상보다 클 것이라고 경고했다는 점을 근거로, 대출업체 SoFi의 내일 실적에서 충당금 상각률(charge-off rate), 연간 가이던스 유지 여부, 경영진의 신용 관련 어조를 주시해야 한다고 주장. 과거 실적 발표 후 주가가 일시 상승 후 하락하는 패턴이 반복되었다고 설명하며, 본인은 SoFi 20,000주(평단 약 $11)를 장기 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
12 hours. That's all we have left, depending on when you're watching this video. SoFi earning drops in 12 hours at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time pre-market. But before you even think about those numbers, you need to hear what Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in America, just said 24 hours ago.
He warned, "When there is a credit cycle, losses will be worse than people expect." And here's the thing. SoFi isn't JPMorgan. SoFi is a lending company, personal loans, student loan mortgages. That means when Damon or when Diamond warns about a credit cycle, he's warning about companies like SoFi. Tomorrow morning, SoFi report earnings, but after hearing Diamond's warning, the published numbers doesn't matter as much anymore for me.
What matters is this, is SoFi caught in Diamond's warning or is SoFi different? That's the real question, and it changes everything about how you should interpret tomorrow's earnings call. So last week, JPMorgan reported Q1 2026 earnings, record profitability, but Diamond didn't celebrate. He warned.
He said credit standards have been weakening across the board, and trust me, they have the data. He said borrowers are over-leveraged. He said that the market has gotten complacent. Everyone was making money or is making money. People were leveraging to the hilt. The sky was the limit. And he compared today's environment to 2005, six, and seven.
That's the pre-financial crisis period. He didn't say directly, but he's warning we could be heading towards another credit blow-up. Here's the key insight. Diamond said that surprise or the surprise in every credit cycle is which industry gets hit, not whether losses come, where they come from. And he said losses, when they come, will be worse than people expect.
So, that's not a prediction. That's a warning from a guy who has the most visibility into credit markets in America. They have the data, they have the stats. So, why this matters for SoFi? SoFi is a lending company, we all know that. Personal loans, student loan, mortgages, that's their core business.
When Diamond warns about weakening credit standard, he's talking about companies like SoFi. When he warns about over-leveraged borrowers, he's talking about SoFi's customers. When he warns that losses will be worse than expected, he's describing SoFi's exact risk. Now, SoFi is much better than other banks because of the the way their credit works or the way the kind of customers that they have.
Now, here's what's interesting. SoFi has reported strong earnings. They have beaten on EPS and revenue multiple times, but the stock reaction has been unpredictable. Sometimes the stock pops after a beat, sometime it tanks, sometime it barely moves. That inconsistency tells you something. The market doesn't know what to believe about SoFi's story yet.
Tomorrow when SoFi reports, the unpredictability is exactly what Diamond's warning just highlighted. Management has to prove they are different from what Diamond is warning about. That's the new bar in my book. So, what actually matters tomorrow? I have said it in my previous video, but these are the three things I'm even looking more interestingly and more deeply.
Okay, when the number drops, this is what I'm looking for. Number one, the charge-off rates. This is now the critical metric. Q4 was 2.80% if charge-off rates are stable or improving, that's bullish for me for the stock. It means SoFi's credit is holding up despite Diamond's warning. If charge-off rates are rising, that confirms Diamond's warning applies to them.
Full-year guidance. Does management maintain the 0.60 EPS target or do they cut it or do they improve it? One sentence, cutting guidance equals stock falls hard. One sentence maintaining it, stock has a chance to rally. Number three, management tone on credit. Listen on how confident they sound about credit quality.
Are they addressing the macro headwinds more or ignoring them? Diamond just put a spotlight on credit risk. Management has to should acknowledge it and prove they are prepared. Let me share my screen and show you the earnings pattern here. This is very interesting when you see this because what I have done is I have highlighted um all the data from the last go.
Okay, from the last few earnings and you will see what I'm talking about. So, the chart that you see on your screen right here is basically earnings from '23 2023 all the way 2024 and 2025 and now we are waiting for the next earning right here. So, the chart tells you implied move. So, what was basically stock implied to move during that earnings and what it actually did after the earnings.
The red of course means negative earnings move, green means positive earnings move and basically average implied move and average actual move. The implied move 2023 was around 11% the bar that you see here and stock dropped in 2023. Then we had 1 2 3 three earnings where the stock rallied after the earnings.
So, that's 2023. That's way past. Let's look at 2025 earnings, okay? So, 2025 as you see um that was basically on 127. So, that was a Q4 of 2024. So, let's look at Q1 of 2025. The average implied move that we wanted was about 11%. So, they say that the stock can go up and down 11% and what happened?
It basically stayed flat and look what happened. So, in 2025 when we reported the earnings, the estimate EPS was 0.03, the actual EPS was point zero six. That's the chart right here. And stock before was 1320 and stock after was 1327. So, it barely moved even though the company beat the EPS by a huge margin as you can see over here.
Okay? Then in 2025, the second quarter that we see here uh right here um in July, the average implied move was about an 8 9% and we had a green day were here. And why did we had a green day? Let's take a look here. So, 729, the EPS estimated EPS was point zero six, the reported was point zero eight, the stock before was 21, the stock after was 22.40, about 6.57% increase.
And then we had about then we had the third quarter that we see here uh of 2025 and we the stock dropped. Uh sorry, the stock went up and it went up just by 5.53% and even though point zero nine was the EPS, they reported point zero three or point one one. And then next earnings, we know what happened, the capital was raised, the stock dropped half.
Now, the reason why I'm showing this video. This is not a true picture of what SoFi has done after the earnings. This is basically the day after when the market closed where the stock was. We have seen this movie play before many times. When the stock comes out or the when the earnings come comes out, the earning is a blowout, the stock goes up.
But then following few days, the stock drops because that's when the profit taking comes into the picture. And it has happened many times. This doesn't mean that stock has seen a rally after this jump of six or seven percent over here. We have seen the stock go up the days after the earnings. No, that hasn't happened.
The stock goes up, but then it comes down and it climbs down after the earnings because people start taking profit. I'm not trying to be a doom and gloom here. Trust me, I'm a SoFi bull. I believe in the company. I hold 20,000 shares of SoFi and my average is about $11. And I'm holding the shares. I'm not selling a single share even though I'm in profit.
I don't care because this is a long-term company. So, I'm holding on to the shares. I'm trying to show you the exact picture of what it looks like after the earnings. The stock rallies and then it basically holds it there. Few days after the stock starts to come down and then the days after if you really look at the stock chart after the earnings even though they beat everything and the earnings, the stock has gone up and after that it has come down.
It's a positive news like basically starting a new product, adding more members. Those kind of things have helped the stock rallied up to about $30 when we saw along with many, many different macro environment as well. Market was all-time high. Everything was all-time high. With Jamie JP Morgan's warning or Jamie Diamond's warning, I'm looking at the stock or the conference call even more carefully.
So now, coming back to our video here and how it's going to basically what is the bottom line, okay? So, 24 hours from now whenever you're watching or 12 hours, we get there we get three things, okay? The Q1 numbers, these are the table stakes. Beat or miss matters less than the macro context now, especially given what just happened with JP Morgan's earning.
The charge of trend. This proves whether Diamond's warning applies to SoFi or not. The full year commitment. This proves whether management believes in their own guidance or is hedging. And stock's already down 38% year-to-date. Market is priced for disappointment. But here's the reality. Tomorrow's earnings call isn't about whether they beat consensus.
It's all about whether they can convince the market that Diamond's credit warning doesn't apply to them. That'll be huge. If If sounds confident about credit quality, defends full year guidance, and addresses the macro headwinds directly, the stock could finally break free. But if they hedge on guidance or sound nervous about credit, the uncertainty continues and the stock says so or stays stuck.
7:00 a.m. ET, set your alarm. And tonight, understand this, Diamond just changed the playing field. Earning numbers are only half the story now. The other half is how does management prove they're different from what he's warning about? That's the real test, in my opinion. Full breakdown video drops after the call.
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