저자: AnthonyPompliano · 외국인
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결론: 제이미 다이먼의 비트코인 비판은 시장 평가와 맞지 않으며, 비트코인은 가치가 없다는 주장과 달리 시가총액 약 1조 달러로 JP모건 시총(약 5,000억 달러)의 두 배 수준이다. 다이먼 발언 정리: 2021년 10월 국제금융협회 행사에서 비트코인을 'worthless', 'fool's gold'라 표현했고 2,100만 개 상한 알고리즘을 믿지 않으며 중국처럼 불법화될 것이라 주장했다. 업계 반응: 브라이언 암스트롱(코인베이스 CEO)은 알고리즘을 직접 읽고 노드를 구현했다고 반박했고, 에드워드 스노든과 라이언 설커스, 마이크 노보그래츠도 다이먼을 비판했다. 진행자 주장: 비트코인은 중앙화된 금융 중개 구조에 대한 대안이며, 1억 명 이상이 보유하는 개방형 네트워크가 폐쇄형 시스템을 이길 것이라 주장했다. 시장 반응: 다이먼 발언 당일 비트코인은 5~6% 상승해 사상 최고가 부근에서 마감했고, 과거 머스크 트윗 등에 비해 발언의 시장 영향은 미미했다. 출연자 논쟁: 게스트 조는 다이먼이 2014년 이후 20,000% 이상 상승 기회를 놓쳤고 견해를 바꾸지 않는다고 지적했다. 게스트 존 역시 다이먼이 지속적으로 같은 비판을 반복한다고 했다. 다이먼 옹호: 진행자는 다이먼이 질문을 받아 답하는 입장이며, 고객과 내부 피드백이 그의 견해를 강화했을 수 있다고 분석했다. 또한 엘살바도르의 법정화폐 채택을 근거로 비트코인의 제도적 수용이 진행 중이라 평가했다. 리스크/조건: 2008년 JP모건이 25억 달러 구제금융을 받았다는 점을 진행자가 언급했다. 비트코인 가격 전망에 대한 명시적 예측은 없었다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 비트코인이 법정화폐 채택과 기관 참여 확대로 계속 성장할 것으로 보나, 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
jamie dimon yesterday had some choice thoughts about bitcoin we've got a couple of quotes during his talk or his interview at the institute of international finance jamie dimon does not like bitcoin he's made that very clear over the years he said yesterday quote i personally think that bitcoin is worthless okay he then said quote i'll challenge i'll just challenge the group to one other thing how do you know it ends at 21 million you all read the algorithms you guys all believe that i don't know i've always been a skeptic of stuff like that and then he also said quote i've always believed it'd be made illegal someplace like china made it illegal so i think it's a little bit of fool's gold and that was from a previous conversation that he had so jamie dimon over the last couple of days has said that bitcoin is worthless he says that he doesn't believe that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin because he doesn't believe the algorithms and then he also said that he thinks bitcoin is fool's gold very interesting choice of words coming from the ceo of a 500 billion dollar financial institution but people on the internet all had their own thoughts to share first we have brian armstrong the coinbase ceo who said yes i did read the algorithms and then i wrote it too i coded up our own bitcoin node to make sure i understood it so we have one person jamie dimon who obviously doesn't code doesn't understand anything technically who says that he doesn't believe the algorithms doesn't believe there will only be 21 million bitcoin and brian armstrong who actually understands a lot of this and has built a 50 billion dollar business in the span of a couple of years who said that not only did he read the algorithms but he rewrote them to make sure that he understood them then we have one of probably the best tweets i've seen in a long time edward snowden okay boomer after jamie dimon says that he thinks bitcoin is worthless on top of that we have ryan sulcus who came out of the woodwork and said jamie dimon on bitcoin 2014 terrible store value 2015 it will not survive it will be stopped 2016.
it's going nowhere 2017. it's a fraud 2018. don't really give a 2019. he launched his own coin 2020 not my cup of tea 2021 i have no interest in it it's fool's gold it's worthless well that's all pretty interesting stuff jamie but you've been wrong on top of that we have mike novogratz who explicitly said it's so strange for a man who's done a brilliant job running a giant bank his answers around bitcoin are sophomoric and it keeps doubling down on them i pray i stay open-minded my whole life i think there's a really important point which is frankly the economic incentive is for jamie dimon not to like bitcoin bitcoin is really dangerous to jp morgan bitcoin stands for everything that jp morgan doesn't jb morgan is a rent seeker it's a middleman the entire business model is based on you not being able to do anything for yourself it's based on you giving them your assets and them saying we know best trust us we'll do it for you instead bitcoin provides sovereignty it allows you and i to hold our own assets and to interact with various financial services in a decentralized permissionless way no longer do we need traditional banks and so now we have two different forces facing each other we have people like jamie dimon who literally think it's worthless who literally don't believe in software who claim that the software is not actually accurate or works and then we have a whole nother system where over a hundred million people around the world have chosen to store value in a decentralized digital open monetary network closed networks always lose to open networks and bitcoin has absolutely exploded in popularity but my favorite point is that bitcoin's a trillion dollar asset and the ceo of jp morgan says that it's worthless but you know what's funny jamie bitcoin's worth two times as much as your bank quite literally rather than spending so much time trying to have comments about bitcoin your bank's only worth 500 billion dollars bitcoin's worth a trillion the market the free market those who assign value the referees of debates has decided that bitcoin is more valuable than jp morgan chase so quite literally maybe bitcoiners are going to eventually think that jp morgan is worthless because that's where we're headed is that we literally have the heads the executives the leaders of the legacy financial system who are saying things like a trillion dollar asset is worthless what what is going on right now and then we have to make matters even worse the mainstream press doesn't push back nobody says hey dude it's a trillion dollar asset what do you mean it's worthless every single one of your competitors the leaders of those organizations don't think it's worthless how is it possible that the leaders at fidelity at every single other major institution are participating in the market in some way and are saying things like we believe this has store value capabilities we believe that this is going to continue to rise in popularity we believe that the hundred plus million people who already hold the asset are likely on the right side of history how is it that nobody's questioning the fact that jamie dimon is saying that a trillion dollar asset is worthless it's crazy to me what do you guys think about this jimmy diamond's wrong i mean like the he he talked in one of his uh comments about how the market decides right and that's the beautiful thing about markets the market has decided it has decided that bitcoin as a network is worth two times the amount of his business right so when you think about it uh the market has decided but i think ultimately the other comment that surprised me a lot was his relation to china like where did that come from dude the uh china relies talking about censorship they rely on censorship within the news the media all the stuff to control their citizens to limit the ability to for their citizens to have uh freedom of speech and other freedoms and expressions and stuff like that so the idea that he's going to claim that china banned bitcoin and that's a reason that we should look at it and ban it also is ridiculous in my opinion not only is he wrong when it comes to the market deciding how much bitcoin is worth it's obviously decided it's worth a trillion dollars as an asset class but outside of that china like what dude it is not a right to be looking at china as an example of what we should be doing here in the united states that is incorrect and completely wrong in my opinion i think uh what jamie dimon has done is he has shown that he is not willing to change his mind right what mike novogat said is he he said i i hope until the end of my life i keep an open mind which i think is correct because jamie dimon has sat on the sideline i think his first comment was in 2014.
i looked it up briefly and he's missed 20 000 price appreciation on bitcoin it would have been the best performing asset in his portfolio by a long margin and he has been confronted with it as a leader in the financial industry for a long period of time every single year he gets asked about this multiple times a year what do you think about bitcoin what do you think about bitcoin what do you think about bitcoin and he has not changed his mind yet i think it speaks volumes to his inability to keep an open mind his inability to change his opinion he has dug his feet so far in the ground now that i don't think he probably will ever change his opinion i hope i'm wrong on that uh but just in general the idea that bitcoin is worthless uh he's wrong and i think his clients have told him that i think a lot of other banks on wall street have shown him that and i think ultimately the market and the retail traders that are uh have profited off of this while he sat on the sideline have proven him to be incorrect john what do you think yeah joe hit a lot of great points wow a lot of what i was going to talk about uh mike novogratz great stay open-minded that's what the best and the smartest people do is they are consistently open-minded consistently learning the 21 million uh not knowing if they're 21 million or not or does it stop at 21 million it's a comical comment go read 2018 he said i don't give a talking about bitcoin bro it doesn't matter i don't care what you care about the market will end up deciding who is right and that's the best thing about free markets it doesn't really matter he's consistently trash on bitcoin and it sounds like he gives a oh he definitely sounds like he gives it oh it's fool's goal it's like dude stop talking about if you don't care let it go well people to in his defense so i want to ask i want to defend jamie dimon for two seconds right one is most of the times he's talking about it he's not offering up his opinion he's not showing up to a conference saying hey i want to do a talk on bitcoin right and tell you how it sucks no people are asking him the question so for sure uh he's put in a position and i'm sure he doesn't like talking about he's he's tired of talking he knows when he says things he's trying to say whatever his talking points are and then he just absolutely you know his head bashed in online in terms of all the people just yelling and screaming and saying how he's wrong etc so i'm sure he doesn't want to do that stuff the second thing that i'll say in defense of him is that he has doubled and tripled down to joe's point so much that it would be miraculous at this point for him to change his mind and he's probably gotten a positive feedback loop from all of the clients of the bank right a bunch of those people probably said to him yeah we really liked what you had to say about uh bitcoin we like the fact that you're uh you think it's risky we like the fact that you think that actually uh it could go to zero and so somewhere somebody is telling him that these talking points are the right things right it's very very low probability that he says this stuff he goes back to his office and literally the people that his colleagues the younger people at the firm the customers etc are all saying to him hey i think you're wrong on bitcoin and he keeps saying no no i'm gonna keep doing it right the odds that he's literally flying in the face of every person he talks to and continuing to say this is very low the second thing is as he's presented with more information he's not changing his mind right it's one thing when it's a 20 billion dollar asset another thing when it's 100 billion dollar asset then it's a trillion dollar asset it's another thing when all of a sudden you have fidelity and other major banks all participating it's another thing when all of a sudden you see multiple companies in the industry starting to go public et cetera data point after data point after data point after data point and he's not changing his mind i actually think that people give folks like this a harder time than they usually deserve because it's a really complex job you're the ceo of a major bank you've got nine million things going on you can't be an expert in everything and so a lot of times what ends up happening is they're just parroting and repeating the talking points that somebody internally gave them but i don't think that's what is happening in this specific case i actually believe that he thinks what he believes what he's saying and the issue is that either one nobody sat him down and explained it to him or two he's literally just missing something because i've never seen anyone who's taken the time to learn about it who then walks away and says you know what i actually don't think it has any value they may say it's overvalued they may say i don't think it's going to realize the full promise of what people in the community think they may have caveats to it but nobody walks away saying it's worthless again a trillion dollar asset that's held by 100 million people around the world a nation state just made it legal tender there's multiple large institutional investors in the united states and abroad that hold the asset on their balance sheets how could it be worthless you know what uh well first off jamie dimon's bank received a 25 billion dollar bailout from taxpayers in 2008 so that's just one fact you're gonna drop bombs like that there we go uh second off i think the best thing yesterday and i think frankly what what jamie dimon might be a little mad about is bitcoin didn't care bitcoin didn't care at all it was up five six percent on the day it's closing on an all-time high right like it doesn't care it's continuing to operate as designed more people are adopting the protocol every single day like you said it's become legal tender in a country it's it's inevitable at this point i think jamie dimon uh is proving to other people he's obviously super super super intelligent i don't think a lot of the some guy in the comments said he's going to be working for pomp boys motors by 2025.
guys i think jamie dive is going to be over here he's got 2 billion dollars i don't know we'd love to have him i guess but but uh no he's not the oil changes yeah he could do the oil change or something but i don't think he's gonna be working for palm boys motors so that stuff's funny but i just think it's interesting that like bitcoin didn't care at all right like this is the type of information that used to matter a lot and used to move markets right like an elon tweet jamie dimon saying it's worthless all this stuff two three four years ago used to move markets a lot 10 we'd see drawdowns and stuff like that and yesterday just didn't matter at all which i thought was super interesting
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