저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 연초 대비 60% 상승했으나 금은 하락 중이라는 질문으로 시작. Schiff는 연말 비트코인 10만달러 도달 가능성은 낮다고 보며, 동전 던지기라면 하락에 걸겠다고 답함. 가격 전망: 비트코인이 5만달러 저항선보다 3만달러 지지선 근처에서 연말을 맞을 가능성이 더 크다고 봄. 3만달러 아래로 깨고 더 낮아질 가능성도 언급. 근거: 엘살바도르의 비트코인 법정화폐 도입 당일 약 1시간 만에 가격이 5만2천달러에서 4만2천달러 부근으로 15% 이상 급락한 점을 고점 신호(키 리버설)로 해석. 지난주는 기술적으로 매우 약한 주였다고 평가. 버블 판단: 비트코인을 포함해 1만2천여 개 암호화폐가 존재하는 상황 자체를 버블로 규정하고, 결국 붕괴할 것이라고 주장. 내기 조건: 비트코인이 연말 10만달러를 돌파하면 Schiff가 마이애미로 가서 Pompliano와 저녁 식사를 하고, 못 넘기면 Schiff가 금을 많이 사겠다는 내기 제안. 상대가 푸에르토리코로 와야 한다는 조건 등 농담 섞인 설정. 비트코인 전환 조건: 실제 화폐로서 기능해야 한다고 주장. 엘살바도르처럼 임금·임대료·보험료가 비트코인으로 표시되고 대출도 비트코인으로 이뤄지는 세계가 되면 입장을 바꿀 수 있다고 함. 다만 현재는 그런 단계에 근접하지도 않았다고 평가. 리스크/조건: 연말까지 10만달러 돌파 여부가 핵심 조건. 금은 상대적 안전자산으로 제시. 한국 증시 종목에 대한 언급 없음. 출연자 전망: Schiff는 비트코인 단기 하락 쪽에 무게. 사회자 및 광고 멘트는 제외.
다듬은 글
bitcoin's up 60 year-to-date gold is not why is gold going down in price and what do you think happens to bitcoin's price through the end of the year well again you know there's only a few months left i know most of you guys think a hundred thousand i mean that's pretty much been the standard you know 100 000 by the end of the year and i think a lot of you are still clinging to that uh i guess it's possible you know i knew right you know i think i was on your show or somebody showed i said yeah i think it's possible bitcoin can go to a hundred thousand then i'm reading all these headlines peter schiff forecast 100 000 bitcoin right so you know i actually think it's it's it's not likely to hit a hundred thousand so i think it's more likely not to go there and obviously you know there's only a few months of the year left uh for it to do that uh but i guess if i was just gonna flip a coin up or down on bitcoin i mean i guess i'd pick down you know but i mean i mean it could be up uh but you know i think the market for bitcoin to me again uh looks toppy once again i mean we just had this huge pump and dump over el salvador you know everybody was excited everybody was buying and solidarity and you know and then all of a sudden the day of the el salvador inaugurates bitcoin and there's one hour and there's a massive dump and the price goes from you know 52 000 uh down to whatever 42 000 whatever was almost or over a 15 drop in under an hour uh and so that might have been a a key reversal uh that day uh that week uh you know we'll see how this month uh uh looks but i thought last week was a technically very weak uh week for bitcoin and peter and so it may end up you know getting you know finishing the year closer to that 30 000 support uh than the 50 000 resistance uh and it's also possible that it could break below that and and go much lower i mean if it doesn't do it by the end of this year i think it's going to do it eventually i mean i think this is a bubble uh as well as the other 12 000 uh some odd cryptocurrencies that that that currently exists uh and that compete with bitcoin peter yeah if bitcoin breaks 100k this year you have to fly to miami in that shirt that exact shirt i want you to wear and i'll take you to dinner if bitcoin doesn't break 100k by the end of the year i'll buy a lot of gold why don't you since you're gonna have so much money if bitcoins at a hundred thousand why don't you fly down here and take me to dinner down here in puerto rico because no that's the whole point is you have to come to me no no no the loser comes to the winner that's how this works is you gotta come to me when that happens but um are you in what are you what are you gonna do if it doesn't hit a hundred thousand bucks i'll buy some gold satisfied help me that that helps you i mean even if you buy it from shift gold our commissions are so low you know it doesn't really do me any good all right i got my two brothers here they got questions for you and then i'll finish you off in a second go ahead peter that was good i appreciate you uh giving him a couple ribbings there uh my question would be what would have to happen if anything uh kind of for bitcoin and the bitcoin network for you to change your mind in reverse course yeah you know i answered that question on somebody else's show and then somebody you know took it out of context and made a video out of it to try to say that i'm endorsing bitcoin because i i i talked about all the things that haven't happened to bitcoin that if they did happen well then i you know would probably have to change my mind but you know none of those things have actually happened yet uh but you know again what would have to happen is bitcoin would actually have to succeed as money right so i would have to see a a demonstration and like even if you just took el salvador for example right because i mean hey that's legal tender if i actually saw like el salvador function let's say for a i don't know how a longer period of time but where everything was priced in bitcoin forget dollars you got a salary it was expressed in bitcoin you rented an apartment your rent was in bitcoin not that you paid it in bitcoin that you figured out what the bitcoin equivalent was for a dollar that when you actually rented your apartment your monthly payments were fixed in a quantity of bitcoin right uh you're so salaries are in bitcoin rents are fixed in bitcoin uh you know you you go out and buy an insurance policy the premium is in bitcoin the benefits are paid in bitcoin right you have a whole world where bitcoin is used exclusively where nobody tries to do a calculation well you know what what is the dollar value of this right when you go into a store in america and something is ten dollars you don't try to calculate in your head like what does that mean in terms of other things it's like ten dollars is ten dollars that's the price right so you you'd have to be able to transact in bitcoin in that kind of world where i could make you alone uh or you know pomp can come to me and say peter i i need a loan can you lend me a bitcoin i'll pay you back you know in five years i'll give you the same bitcoin and i'll give you a you know five percent interest a year in bitcoin i mean we have to be able to agree on a loan where the only thing in the loan was bitcoin so if we could actually get to a world where bitcoin can function because you know we're in a world right now where the dollar functions like that we used to live in a world where gold functioned like that you know where all these things were done all these calculations were in gold everything was priced in gold whether the gold was represented by dollars or not even when the goal was represented by dollars the dollars were fixed to gold so those calculations were still there so if bitcoin can actually be a medium of exchange a unit account uh and a store value all at once and does that over time then i'd have to say i guess i was wrong about bitcoin but i mean we're not even close to to that happening what's up guys bang bang thanks so much for watching the best business show today if we're gonna be the best business show we obviously need the best partner that's why the exclusive sponsor the best business show is sofi they're an all-in-one platform that allows you to invest in all kinds of different assets including stocks etfs crypto ipos and they even have an automated investing function if that's your thing so before we start getting after it again make sure that you go download sofi you get an invest account and when you make your first crypto trade regardless of what you buy they'll give you 10 in bitcoin for free it's that simple head on over to sofi.com to get started today thanks so much for watching and i hope you come back and watch more the best business show tomorrow
Comments 0