저자: 미상 · 외국인
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6월 옵션 만기(약 5.1조 달러)가 역대 최대이며 다음 주 변동성 확대 가능성 제기. 다음 주 만기 풋 오픈인터레스트 비중이 콜보다 높아 시장이 하락 대비 중이라는 해석. 스위스중앙은행 금리 인하, 고용·주택·필리 연은 지표 악화와 물가 지표 상승 등 스태그플레이션 우려 언급. 러셀2000 약세와 10년물 금리 하락을 경기침체 우려로 해석. 나스닥100 RSI 과매수, CNN 공포탐욕지수는 공포 구간, 엔비디아 조정 가능성 언급. 7월 초 계절적 강세 기간이라는 점도 지적.
다듬은 글
welcome back to the 75th episode of Nvidia saves the no do has not save the markets today this move in Nvidia definitely took Wall Street by surprise today Nvidia is kind of crashing today which I think makes the rest of this week and next week that much more interesting but first Tom Lee is right again literally spot on Carl over on CNBC shared this image of Tom Lee and says SPX 5500 a lot of people thought it was a crazy call to think the SNP would rally 4% in June Tom Lee made that call and was correct but indeed we need to talk about what is coming next for markets tomorrow's option expiration is the largest in history at over 5 trillion so do expect volatility coming tomorrow but more volatility next week because indeed when you get these option expirations that are massive that only happen a couple times a year you actually don't get a lot of volatility the week of expiration it's actually the following week that you see a larger move in markets that's because that $5.1 trillion doar of options that expire gets repositioned into different areas and sectors puts and calls defensive aggressive different strategies still given this is the largest option expiration ever in the history of the markets coming tomorrow you could see more volatility tomorrow as well you can see that here via Friday's Opex that is 5.1 trillion doll the biggest ever this is being reported by Zero Hedge and this chart is from Goldman Sachs Global investment research SPX am options total 2 .9 trillion non SPX SPX stands for S&P 500 is 1885 billion the Spy ETF the one that most people trade the one that I look at every day here on this channel that option experation is worth $280 billion the SPX PM is worth $430 billion nons spy ETF is 455 billion and single stock options are $870 billion and I'll just go out on a limb and say quite a chunk of that single stock option number is probably Nvidia and as Andrew fiser here portfolio manager at sio he comments and says High gamma will make the market close flat for most and that's true there's a lot of hype around these large option expiration dates like the one we get tomorrow but you don't tend to usually get a lot of action it's usually the next week and what's cool about that I guess if you're a nerd like me you can go see how people are already positioning for next week today and that will give you a little bit of insight to how this $5 trillion of notional value could reposition in our markets so if we take a look at trades that are coming through today this is the unusual options scanner over on ortex you have 27 different trades totaling 4.24 million with a positive order value of 46% but if you take a look at next week's option expiration it's really bad it's almost like Wall Street is positioning for a crash so open interest for next week just so we're all on the same page if you buy an option for next week's expiration which is June 28th next Friday's expiration or any other expiration for that for that matter if you buy one call one put then your open interest is 50% calls 50% puts open interest is contracts that are bought and held in people's brokerage accounts the open interest for next Friday's expiration is 84.3 4% puts and 15.66% calls that means there is over five times as many puts for next week's expiration than calls that's almost like positioning for a crash volume today is 42.058144 did a surprise rate cut those are never fun those are never good for markets the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 0.25% down to 1.25% after already cutting rates in March H it seems like one fed actually knows what they're doing still rate cuts are historically not seen as a good sign for the economy or this this will help you sleep better tonight feds cash Cari says it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2% that's of course if we avoid a recession because if we go into recession or see economic weakness then you're likely to see inflation fall faster than that but I wouldn't say that's necessarily comforting for markets to hear kashari say that fed kashgari also said today the economy keeps throwing us curveballs which are challenging founder and CEO of aramina comment ments and says no you keep living in the past which is problematic and I couldn't have said it better myself the FED is on the cusp of making a drastic policy error after all we don't even know how strong the labor market actually is it's being reported that job growth was overstated by more than 770,000 jobs last year put differently about one in every four jobs that was supposedly added last year never existed that's like completely eliminating all of the jobs gained in three whole months of 2023 so basically everyone besides the FED can see just how weak things are right now I mean go talk to people people are struggling you know who else is struggling the Russell 2000 only 1% of stocks in the Russell 2000 are at a new 52- we high as small caps continue to struggle to gain traction which which is actually not what you would expect if if someone told you 10year treasury yields were going to fall 40 basis points you would expect the Russell 2000 would do well instead the 10year treasury has dropped 40 plus basis points since it hit that high in October of 2023 at about 49% you've you've actually dropped almost 50 basis points since that level and what's happened the Russell has done absolutely nothing in fact the Russell has actually fell since then that's because markets are becoming concerned over a recession and who does the worst during a recession it's your Russell 2000 I should mention while we're here 10-year treasury yields are up almost six basis points today that's because we did get some troubling economic data troubling on the front of the economy and troubling on the front of infl you could say almost stagflationary first up initial jobless claims came in at 238,000 a little bit higher than Wall Street was anticipating and this is a further ramp up kind of like you were seeing in 20122 there is definitely an upwards trend for initial jobless claims building permits came in at 1386 million expecting 1.47 million less building permits less building less Supply more housing inflation at least that's how the markets look at it I can make an argument the fed's the reason there is housing inflation to begin with and I could also make the argument that the way the fed and the government calculates the housing inflation data is just the wrong way to do it anyways mix both of those things together and yeah housing inflation isn't coming down anytime soon but hey what do I know you had housing starts that came in about 110 10,000 lower than expected at 1.27 million housing starts month over month that came in at 5.5% you were expecting positive 2.2% let's just add it on at this point keep the bad news coming and that's exactly what we're going to do next with with Philly fed Manufacturing Index you were expecting a number of six you came in at 1.3 that's really bad but look at this Philly fed business conditions not just manufacturing but Philly fed business conditions came in at 13.8 last month you were at 32.4 business conditions just plummeted Philly fed capex also went down from 20 last month to 12.1 Philly fed employment came in at -2.5 last month was -7.9 uh so that's a little bit better Philly fed new orders came in at -2.2 last month was -7.9 so a little bit better there but more bad news Philly fed prices paid the inflationary component of this data came in at 22.50 last month was 18.7 that's not good I mean is it the end all be all for the markets obviously not but it is inflationary data nonetheless later on tonight around 7:30 p.m.
we will get the inflation rate out of Japan if that comes in hotter than expected that could be a problem because Japan is the single largest owner of us treasuries over a trillion dollars if Japan's inflation goes higher Japan needs to raise rates that could lead some money to leave our bond market and go domestically back to Japan so just the number to watch for don't expect it to do much but it definitely could have an impact tomorrow we will get much more important data than the data we got today and that is S&P Global composite PMI S&P Global manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI you're actually expecting all of these numbers will contract a little bit from last month's rating with markets that are really going to be focusing on that Services component of the global PMI here today you have the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is the outperformer of 0.27% the S&P that is pretty much flat the NASDAQ down 1th of 1% the Russell's pretty much flat as well but look at the vix the vix is doing its own thing up 62% today really a testament to what I showed you earlier in all of the bearish defensive options heading on to the S&P 500 options chain the vix goes higher when there's more puts being bought than calls the vix subsequently goes lower when there's more calls being bought than puts so the vix up 62% today is a pretty big deal that's telling you there is a lot more puts being bought than calls worth mentioning that if July is a week period for the market that would be a little abnormal because July kicks off the strongest 10day period of the year for the S&P 500 with average and median returns of 1.54% and 1.91% the first two weeks of July tend to be pretty good for markets a lot of that has to do with Summer tends to be slower there tends to be less volatility When there's less volatility less going on you tend to get the markets that naturally want to go higher and I think that's kind of what has been happening lately there really hasn't been much going on and you are in this lower volatility lower volume kind of Market environment when everyone's hyped up around AI That's the biggest most prevailing narrative there is right now until of course we get new data and new information which will come tomorrow with that PMI data but in a big sense over the next couple of weeks with the non farms and new inflation report the start of earning season all of that will be even bigger Catalyst and I mean eventually Nvidia is going to go through a correction you would think and given how much Nvidia is positively affecting our markets as of lately Nvidia the SNP they're kind of like the same thing at this point one goes the other one's probably going to go again today CNN's fear and greed index is sitting at 44 which is in fear territory again I've never seen this before in my life where the fear and greed index is in fear and markets are at all-time highs this overextended I mean the S&P 500 has an RSI of almost 78 and the triple Q's which is the NASDAQ 100 has an RSI of about 80 which both of these are severely overbought for some reason it doesn't sound like this is going to end well but if you are bullish really the only thing that you can count on at this point is a broadening out of the markets and for that to happen you need to really see the FED become a little bit more dovish you need to really see inflation plummet again if that happens we may avoid a crash and maybe you just get small caps and midcaps catching up to Big Tech what you don't want to see if you're a bull is a catch down where big Tech comes back to reality and starts to match up with the rest of the markets here today you do have 0.79% of all stocks breaking above their 50-day moving average so today is actually positive from that sense you have 38.6 7% of stocks above their 50-day moving average this is still a really bad number almost 60% of stocks are trading under their 50-day moving average that means a majority of the markets are indeed in a downtrend but it is positive today Zero Hedge wrote this post on X with this chart this says for those asking how much longer the S&P 10 can keep melting up as the S&P 490 stinks you can see the top 10 largest stocks currently have a multiple of about 30 and during the com bubble that hit as high as 47 whereas the SNP 490 has a p multiple of around 18 and and uh it was about the same it was at 16 during the dot bubble so really if you're bullish right now you have to be hoping that the average stocks pees start to rise and apparently being overbought is a good thing the NASDAQ 100's 5day RSI is over 95 that has happened 16 times since 1990 with a one month later average return of 2.9% a positivity rate of 80% three failed signals 1990 2020 and 2021 all macro related so basically if this is going to turn into some kind of large crash based on that historical precedence it's going to be macro related meaning you're going to start to see the economy take a hit and in other words if the economy continues to do fine then 30 days later markets will probably be even higher than they are today although that's possible I kind of find it hard to believe just given how concentrated this Market is and how badly Nvidia needs a little bit of a reset here that's actually What's Happening Now Nvidia just went red today which is kind of even hard to believe these days and you're back to green what a hell of a stock if you like to stay up dat with markets and get a heads up of what could be coming next this is the place to be you guys most importantly
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