저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
향후 6개월이 주식시장에 매우 중요하며 낙관적이라는 주장. 인플레이션은 PCE 방법론 변경(9/30), 관세·플래시메모리 가격 효과 소멸, 주택·유가 상승 제약으로 6개월 내 둔화 가능성 높다고 봄. 반면 사회자는 이란 전쟁 장기화 시 유가·AI 열기로 인한 인플레와 추가 금리인상 위험을 지적. 연준 금리인상이 AI 과열 또는 경기 둔화로 이어질 수 있다는 시나리오 제시. 진행자는 마켓 바닥 가능성과 약세 시나리오도 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee just said that the next 6 months in the stock market will be the most important in a long time. Tom Lee is optimistic. He is full of optimism. I'll share what Tom Lee said in a moment , and then I'll respond to it and give my thoughts. So, listen to what Tom Lee just said. See what he thinks about what he just heard.
Glad to see you, of course. What do you think about what you just heard from our two guests in the studio? I mean, both points of view make sense. You know, the returns have increased to a level where they compete with stocks. We're still trying , I think the market is still trying to figure out why the yields are higher.
I think there are many reasons for that . But I think two things are getting lost in this conversation. First, where will interest rates be in 6 months, because where will inflation be? And secondly, I think that increasing profitability improves competition for stronger companies. That is, there will be companies that will actually become more attractive as profitability increases.
And I think, Scott, as you mentioned, that's probably why the Magic Seven are growing, because as profitability increases, it's easier for them to raise money, and it's harder for their competitors . As for inflation, I still think the next 6 months will be the most important, because if inflation starts to decline, it won't be because of the Fed's rate hike last week.
This is because of the policies that are already in place. And I think that means the Fed may actually be easing its hawkish stance. So, what if that doesn't happen? That we will have an increase in both profitability and inflation for longer than you assume. The Fed's own forecasts do not promise that inflation will return to target next month, a month from now, or later.
Yes, Scott, I think the probability of a decline is very high. First, because of the methodology for calculating PCE: on September 30, they will release a new methodology. This will likely reduce the rate by 20-40 basis points on an annualized basis. So instead of 3.4% it could be 3%, and we know that the effect of the tariffs is starting to fade, as is the effect of flash memory prices.
The impact of portfolio management fees on the stock market is fading, and if the price of oil remains at $100, it will not affect inflation in 6 months. So, for inflation to start rising rapidly, housing prices would have to rise, but higher interest rates would hold it back, oil would have to approach $150, and flash memory would have to fall significantly again, but it is still being removed from the calculation methodology.
Therefore, I believe that the chances of significantly lower annual inflation in 6 months are quite high. I understand, but there is no sign that we will reach a balance on the issue of memory; You can approach the methodology for calculating inflation differently, but this does not mean that inflation itself has changed.
You just decided to add other ingredients to the mixture and bake the cake differently. Right. But, you know, for the consumer basket or inflation, the life of the average person does not depend on the prices of flash memory. Of course, this makes AI more expensive . However, for the average person, the only real memory expense is the phone they carry in their pocket.
So I think flash memory prices could still go up. This should not be a reason for the Fed to raise rates. But in a general sense, you're right, Scott. We see no signs that inflation is rising. But I will say that the probability of it decreasing after 6 months is very high. And if that's the case, the market will finally be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
So, I agree with Tom Lee. I agree that inflation is likely to be lower given the revisions and reweightings we will see in the PCE report. Although I would note that it probably doesn't matter. 3%, 3.4%—it doesn't matter to the Fed. I mean, look at the core CPI. It is about 2.4%. This is the lowest figure in 5 years, and the Fed still continues its path of raising rates.
This , this, this is not good enough. So, this is the first thing . But secondly, what's more important is what happens to the inflation factors, right? You can count it one way or another. You can divide this pie however you want , but it's oil, it's energy, and it's AI trade. These are the two sources of inflation at the moment.
I don't think anyone can seriously argue that the consumer economy is so strong that we need to be in a rate hike cycle right now. It doesn't make any sense to me. So the main question is: will the war with Iran end? Will it never end? Is this another endless war? If the price of oil remains above $100 per barrel, we will have inflation problems because we have supply problems.
You see, COVID—yes, a lot of it was money printing and the Fed keeping interest rates too low for a long time, and it was obvious that inflation was inevitable. You can't just hand out stimulus checks and aid, you know, unemployment benefits to 100 million people for six months, essentially give people free money and expect them not to start spending it wildly, right?
Too many dollars chasing too few goods. Well , today you have an energy inflation problem, right? We are running out of supplies, and the longer this war with Iran goes on, the greater the shortage becomes. This affects everything. So, yes, will the price of oil fall? Eventually? I...I would hope so, right?
But the Fed says, " Look, we have to respond to this, because if we don't, we're going to have a supply problem." And if companies start raising prices because of high oil prices, they won't come down, right? Then you get potentially long-term inflation. I don't set the rules. I'm not saying this is what the Fed should do or what to focus on right now.
But the longer the war with Iran continues , the higher the risk of ever-increasing inflation. And I really think the bigger problem here is that you can't keep AI and oil high at the same time . For example, would the Fed have needed to respond to oil shocks if there had been no AI boom? Probably not, right?
And the Fed has an idea: we're going to cool demand. We are going to attack the AI boom. Maybe it will take the, you know, "foam" out of the economy, so to speak, and maybe it will mean that oil prices won't drive inflation into the economy. This is the train of thought at the Fed. So, what does this mean?
This means that there are three different ways this Fed rate hike cycle will end . The Fed almost always breaks something. The good news is that if oil prices fall, if the war with Iran ends, that would be a positive outcome . If the war with Iran ends, oil prices will fall , inflation expectations will fall, Treasury yields will fall, and the bull market will be alive and well.
If that doesn't happen, you need one of two other things to happen. Or the AI sector will crack, seriously crack, and there will be big problems, the markets will collapse, and the Fed will not raise rates in such an environment, because Treasury yields will fall, right? People will rush to find a safe place.
Or the economy will collapse. One of these. And neither is good for the markets. So, again , I disagree a little with Tom Lee on his narrative that the structure of the CPI supposedly matters a lot. That's not the problem at all. It's still too high in the Fed's view , but then there's the hot AI sector, which is creating some inflation within itself, right?
And then there are high oil prices. And given that, the Fed says, "Yes, we have to stop one thing." We need to kill the economy, or not literally kill it, as in a recession. We need to slow down the economy, literally slow down oil consumption, right? Hmm, that's the idea behind raising rates, is n't it?
Slow down aggregate demand in the economy. A clever way of saying: slow down economic growth . Either slow down the AI sector, or both at the same time, trying not to break anything in the process. Now let's be frank. As I've said in previous videos, we're betting on four or five rate hikes by April 2027 .
is will definitely not happen. Will we get another raise or two ? Probably. Will this crash the markets? Probably not. But if the war lasts for a few more months. This will become a much bigger problem again because the Fed will raise rates until something breaks, or until there is a big positive shift in the war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz opens.
Now, let me present to you today's portfolio of our trading community, okay? . This is not a call to action. Do what you want with your money and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions . Today, this portfolio fell by 0.54%. So, it has fallen by about half a percent since the beginning of the year.
This portfolio grew by 95.55%. We are ahead of any hedge funds or investment managers in the stock market. This year, there is no one ahead of us. I'm not saying this because it's the only strategy. We're trying to find asymmetric opportunities that will significantly outperform the market, right? I want this portfolio to grow by 130% by the end of the year.
I want this portfolio to grow by 50% next year, right? We don't do mediocre things. We are truly different from everyone else in the way we like to inves, but that's it. I am fully invested in this market. I actually have a margin of about $20,000. I'm showing this to you because I'm optimistic. I have an optimistic attitude .
There are zero hedges in my portfolio . In fact, I have a few call options on TLT that I bought for about 200 bucks just for fun. At this point, it looks like a bad deal. Steeply. Sometimes I do things like that. I like to take on risky, high-reward deals from time to time. It doesn't seem to be working in my favor.
$200 compared to $ 240,000 is nothing, okay? I have no hedges in my portfolio. I do n't have any shorts in my briefcase, nothing at all. I am completely open and even more on the long side. And I'm showing you this because I also have no margin call risk. I don't have $200,000 in margin so that if the market crashes I'll be wiped out.
Even if the margin requirements on all my stocks increase to 60%, and even if the markets fall by 50% in such a scenario, I still won't get a margin call . Of course? This is how you want to be positioned now. You want to be invulnerable right now. You want to have so little margin that you can repay it without any problems.
If the markets started to look worse, which is a possible prospect ahead. You also don't want to be so underinvested that you miss out on growth. So, at this point, if stocks go up, it's because the markets are too "hawkish." Perfectly. I am completely ready for this . If the markets collapse, great.
Yes, I will lose a little on this number, but I have $349,000 of margin buying power and outside capital that I can bring into the portfolio and buy on the dip. So, whatever happens here, we'll be okay. Now, historically speaking, markets usually rise after midterm elections. When will the war with Iran end?
What will happen between this moment and that time? We'll see. This week , this week, excuse me, or technically next week, next Wednesday, historically markets bottom out before the midterm elections. So, right now, for the next few days, you are at the height of fear, as historically happens before midterm elections.
So I think there is a high probability that we will get such a rally, but it is not a guarantee. This graph could go in the opposite direction. It is possible, and we must be prepared for it. So, ladies and gentlemen, let me know what you think about it in the comments section below. Let me know what you think about what Tom Lee just said.
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