저자: The Creative Investor · 외국인
요약 보기
오늘 나스닥은 1.6% 하락했고, 어제 발표된 실적 여파가 이어졌다. 히트맵상 대부분 섹터가 초록이지만, AI·소프트웨어·사이버보안·하이퍼스케일러 종목은 큰 폭으로 빠졌다. 구글은 순이익이 예상치(약 435억 달러)에 못 미친 약 405억 달러를 기록했고, 검색 매출·총매출·EPS 모두 기대를 밑돌았다. 내년 자본지출 확대를 위한 주식 희석 우려까지 겹쳐 주가가 약 13% 떨어졌다. 반면 마이크로소프트는 역대 최고가 근처에서 하락폭이 1%에 그쳤다. 포티넷은 약 22%, 서비스나우는 약 26% 하락했는데, 서비스나우의 경우 CRPO 성장 둔화도 있었지만 'SaaS 종말'에 대한 공포가 더 크게 작용했다는 해석이 제시됐다. 자금은 하이퍼스케일러와 소프트웨어에서 다른 섹터로 이동하는 흐름으로 묘사된다. 이란 관련 뉴스도 영향을 주었다. 원유 가격은 0.64% 하락했고, 이란 석유장관 직무대행과의 접촉, 미국의 표적 공격 가능성, JD 밴스 부통령의 서한 전달 등이 언급됐다. 시장에서는 중간선거를 앞둔 불확실성이 크다고 평가된다. 연준 관련해서는 12월 9일 회의에서 금리 인상 확률이 약 78%로 반영되어 있다. 투자자 심리는 아직 약세 응답이 많고, CNN 공포탐욕지수는 34로 공포 구간이다. 발표자는 실적 시즌을 방향성 촉매보다 시장의 '닻'으로 보며, 나머지 실적 발표와 이란 관련 결과를 주목하라고 언급했다. 영상 중 특정 거래 플랫폼과 포트폴리오 성과(120.38%)에 대한 홍보성 언급도 포함되어 있으므로 참고 시 주의가 필요하다.
다듬은 글
So, stocks are collapsing today. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%. This is the aftermath of yesterday's earnings reports. We discussed this in the previous video. So I won't go into all of this in this video. I will provide you with a summary of the results from Microsoft , Google, Fortinet, ServiceNow and briefly summarize them for you.
As you can see on the heat map, there is actually a lot of green today. Of course? Don't let yourself be fooled. If you don't have AI, software, cybersecurity, or hyperscaler stocks, your portfolio is probably doing pretty well. Apple is up 2%, Meta is up 2.3%, even Tesla is up a little today. Financial sector, look at this.
Solid green. Healthcare, very green. The industry is very green, except for Caterpillar, which is an exception. Consumer defensive and cyclical goods, utilities, real estate. I mean, there's a lot of green around, but where there's red—there's really red, you know? Google fell 13% today. By the way, it is completely justified.
Google's earnings report was a complete failure. Now we have news about the war in Iran and other headlines that we will also analyze in today's video. But first, let's talk about yesterday's reports. And without going over it all again and spending 15 minutes on it, I'll say— everything at Google was terrible.
That is, their net profit was expected to be around 43.5 billion. And it turned out about 40.5 billion. It was...it was really bad. These are indicators we haven't seen from Google in a long time. Google search engine did not meet forecasts, total revenue was below expectations, EPS was below expectations.
Overall, it's just not good. Although Google did not increase capital spending for this year. But they said that capital spending will increase significantly next year, and how will Google finance it? Diluting investors' shares. So, in addition to bad reports, you get blurring. And we have more of this to look forward to over the next 12-24 months.
And this is not at all what investors want to see. Shares of companies that do not dilute investor shares are doing better. Tesla showed very good results after its report . Microsoft released the report last night. I think Microsoft shares were algorithmically dragged down today, but the company is near an all-time high, unlike Google before the report, and Microsoft only fell 1%.
So there is a big difference between Google's and Microsoft's results recently. I mean, Microsoft is only 3% below its all-time high, and Google is more than 20% below its all-time high. This is a dilution of shares and earnings that turned out to be simply disappointing. Cybersecurity, Fortinet. So, Fortinet fell by about 22%.
I don't really understand this case. The company's shares have performed excellently this year, but judging by the numbers alone, a 20% drop seems crazy. By the way, many other cybersecurity companies rebounded a bit from their lows today. One of my favorites, Rubrik, you know, at one point today it went down to $127.
It recovered slightly from the lows, returning to $131 at some point during the day. It almost came out in the black. The stock was at $139.66. So there's been a lot of volatility in the cybersecurity sector, especially because of Fortinet, and because those stocks have been performing really well recently.
And then there's ServiceNow. And you know, I know that many people say: "Yes, the profits were not very good." Yes, the rate of CRPO growth is slowing , but the 26% drop seems more like a fear of a “SaaS apocalypse” than a reasoned reaction to the reports we’ve seen. And there will be times when people will be scared by the impact of AI.
Even many Wall Street experts are talking about Google today, saying, "Look, Google is showing that the company's search engine will come under pressure from AI." This is one of the top headlines on CNBC. It says : “Alphabet’s disappointing earnings reflect the first real signal that AI is eating away at search market share.” So, whether or not it's true, that's the narrative that prevails today.
So, given Google's dismal earnings, the market reaction to ServiceNow, and also Fortinet, we see significant pressure on the AI sector; in particular on hyperscalers , as well as on software and cybersecurity. And capital is clearly flowing into other sectors of the market that people may have forgotten about for a while.
You can see Micron, AMD, Intel, and many other stocks like Oracle selling off today as well, as hyperscalers are not raising their capital expenditure forecasts for this year. And investors are quite impatient. Google hasn't explained what the big increase in capital spending next year will look like, but people are saying, "Hell , that means spending will be in line with expectations by the end of the year." And for equipment manufacturers' stocks, that's not enough.
Although today is literally October 29, and 2026 is almost over . From an investment perspective, the only thing that matters is 2027. So I think things are going quite well with AI. I think the hardware sector is still not bad. I don't like hardware stocks, but if you were bullish on them two days ago, I would remain bullish today.
Google , on the other hand, is a complete failure. This thing will fall much lower from here. Microsoft can look much better . There will be other market-impacting reports after the close of trading today that you should keep an eye on. These are Intel, Amazon, Sandisk, Roblox, Reddit, Twilio, Coinbase, Starbucks and Rivian.
Of course, Intel, Amazon, and Sandisk will be the major players. But Roblox, Reddit, Twilio and some others could impact the software sector and advertising companies. Obviously, Coinbase can influence other stocks in the relevant field. Starbucks can affect the restaurant business, right? So, another big day of reporting.
You will receive Apple reports next week. And then a number of software companies and advertising firms will start reporting. And then Nvidia will effectively end the season of important market reports over the next few weeks. But I think so far so good, except for a few big disappointments like Google.
I think overall, earnings are better than expected so far. I know that everyone can be picky about certain things. ServiceNow, Fortinet, and a few others—but I think these stocks just went up too much ahead of the reports . Therefore, the bar was higher than what was already included in the price. I still view reporting as a cleansing event, as an anchor for the market.
I don't view reports as a catalyst for markets to rise or fall, but rather as an anchor. Now let's move on to the main news of the day. The CEO of Cutter Energy said he met with Iran's acting oil minister twice in the past 2 weeks, discussing post-war cooperation in the oil and gas sector . And I mention this because we're all just waiting to see if we're going to have, you know, some kind of final operation against Iran.
There are reports that it could last a week, that we could target Iran's top leadership. Um, well, other important sites, like nuclear facilities, maybe a ground operation to get enriched uranium out of Iran, or something like that. But the fact that this headline exists shows me that Iran is unlikely to target the energy infrastructure of its neighbors.
If there is any targeted attack on Iran, it will likely be focused on US military bases in the region or warships. And this is important from a market perspective, because markets don't care who lives, who dies, who does what. For example , stocks don't care. The stocks don't care which country attacks whom.
Markets are worried about the impact on commodities, oil, trade, and different, you know, different wars have different consequences. But in this case, everything depends on oil. And as long as Iran or the US don't attack oil infrastructure, I think you've probably factored in the bad news in advance , and a "buy on the news" reaction is still possible in the market .
If we have a kinetic war with Iran, oil is actually down 0.64% today, and we'll get to some of those headlines in a moment. But the 10- year Treasury yield also fell by about five basis points today. This leads to better performance within the Russell index. The Russell is up about 1% today. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.65%.
The S&P fell 0.6% and the Dow fell 0.52%. House Senior Counsel Kevin Hassett says today that if October inflation is really high, the Fed will likely act. The Iranian news agency Tasnim reports that Iran has received a letter from US Vice President J.D. Vance, but has not yet responded to it. And this is another strange development that we have seen in the last 12-24 hours or so.
J.D. Vance actually wrote this letter to some radicals in Iran to get them to the negotiating table to make an agreement to end this conflict. We don't know what was said . We don't know how different this is from what we've heard before. We don't know if this is just an attempt to get oil prices down before the midterm elections before we actually attack Iran.
There is a lot of uncertainty here. There are many questions about whether Trump would even agree to this. Trump claims he didn't know J.D. Vance did it. So, there's a lot of uncertainty around this. With the midterm elections next Tuesday, the war situation in Iran will either improve significantly quickly or an armed conflict will break out.
Again, in my opinion, an agreement to end this conflict is much better than armed confrontation, but people are quite pessimistic. People have already priced in the expectation of bad news, but things may not be as bad as they think. Iran insists that the US fulfill its seven conditions. Any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable, according to statements from Iranian state media.
The Situational Awareness Foundation is trying to raise funds to bet on Fluid Stack. The funding rounds would value Neo Cloud Fluid Stack at $40 billion . So, Situational Awareness is still trying to work in the markets, but overall it's a pretty sad story. How could we miss such a huge opportunity that artificial intelligence is now?
I mean, this is just crazy. In the portfolio of the trading community, I know , today is a rather difficult day. We own some cyber stocks. We have some programmatic promotions, and, you know, I think the AI monetization phase is going to be crucial over the next 12 months. But since the beginning of the year, the trading community's portfolio has grown by 120.38%.
And, in my opinion, it's without any excitement. We do not gamble. Some would say that investing in general is a gamble, but we don't use gamble or excessive leverage, we don't use options. I can only imagine what this portfolio would look like if we had used leverage in our deals this year. 300, 400, 500%—and the fact that the Situational Awareness fund just exploded out of its own greed—is truly insane.
Now in the trading community, I am once again focusing my attention on five to ten different stocks at a time. I monitor the stocks I invest in very closely. I'm investing for the next one to three years, okay? I don't usually trade options. I also don't usually play downs unless there's a very clear opportunity.
I have a small margin, about 11.3%, in this portfolio. I feel comfortable with this. If stocks are falling, great, you know, I can buy them on the dip. There is $390,000 of purchasing power on margin here. If the stock goes up sharply, great too. We are ready for this, and we are also positioned for this.
This is never a recommendation or financial advice. I am not a fortune teller. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. But if you want to join us, the link is down below, in the description of today's episode. It's also time to mention the sponsor of today's video, which is Kalshi.
Kalshi, as you know, is a prediction and betting market. You have to be 18 years old to participate, but only about 0.5% of my audience is under 18. This, this , this is kind of crazy, because I started investing when I was about 17. Um, there's almost no one under 18, but despite that, Kalshi will give you $50 for free when you sign up and fund your account using the link, which is also at the bottom of today's episode description.
What I'm paying attention to over the next few days is your midterm elections. I just think there could be a big swing here if we have good news about the war with Iran. As of today, the Democratic Party is projected to win the Senate with a 68% probability. Republicans have 32 %. That's 4% more today for Democrats and 4% less for Republicans, which is kind of crazy.
But Kalshi also has what I like to call "perpetuals." I think that sounds better . Perpetuals. Uh, you know, I'm, I'm not, I'm from Michigan. We pronounce almost everything wrong there . So, be patient with me. But perpetuals are essentially a way of trading leverage in a straight “ up or down” format.
Instead of paying crazy premiums like in options, perpetuals allow you to gain access for a fraction of the actual premium. Options are called premiums. What do you pay for car insurance? What is it called? Premium. You pay a premium, right? Um, the Perpetuals have a crypt, they have merchandise, they have all kinds of things there.
If you want to check it out, again, the link is down below in the description of today's episode. And Kalshi will also give you $50 when you sign up and fund your account. Oh, and a pro tip: if you sign up for Kalshi via the link in today's episode description using the Gmail you use every day, your information is automatically verified.
Hmm, at least it took me about 60 seconds to register and link a bank account to start trading. It literally took no time at all if you use your Gmail. With that in mind, Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller , by the way, is again from Michigan, says he is an investor in XYZ, which works with ICE on perpetual futures in the US.
Hmm, perpetual futures. Stanley Druckenmiller said XYZ is partnering with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to bring 24-hour perpetual futures on hyperliquid assets to the United States. He said he looks forward to using this product to improve his investment process. So perpetual futures will become part of the investment path in the future.
On a completely different topic: Microsoft says it expects to raise about $20 billion through a bond sale in the US, which actually brings us back to the main question. Investors, they're tired of the stock dilution, they're tired of debt to finance capital expenditures. And that's a good reason why Microsoft stock is trading lower today.
Trump says he was forced to attack Iran to prevent them from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump repeats that the war with Iran will end very soon. Trump says that US military operations against Iran are going very well. Now, if we look at what markets are pricing in Fed policy at the December 9 meeting, the probability of a Fed rate hike is 78.2%.
Yesterday it was at 80%. This was after the Fed meeting. So, there is almost a 22% probability that the Fed will not raise rates on December 9th. And everything will really depend only on the economic data that we receive. If the economic data, the inflation data and the employment reports are stronger than expected, you already know that, then the markets will price that in and we will eventually get that rate hike.
I don't think it really matters whether we have a rally at the end of the year or not, because you're already betting on an almost 80% chance of a rate hike. If we don't get a rate hike, that could certainly help the markets a little. But yesterday we had a Fed meeting. And I think that confuses a lot of people .
I don't think the Fed meeting was clearly "bullish" or "bearish" . It was quite neutral, in line with what we expected. This is what I call a "clarifying event ," okay? Now that the meeting is over, you can finally breathe a sigh of relief, right? It's just...It wasn't anything too remarkable. And it's good that it's behind us.
The latest AI investor sentiment survey was released today , showing 41.4% of investors are bearish, 20.7% are neutral, and 37.8% are bullish. So, there are still more bearish investors than anyone else. More than bullish investors, and far more than neutral ones. So people continue to feel fear. Today, CNN's Fear and Greed Index is at 34, which is the middle of the fear category.
Market momentum is fear, stock price strength is fear, market breadth is fear, put and call options are fear, market volatility is neutral, demand for safe haven assets is extreme fear, demand for junk bonds is currently neutral. The percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average within the S&P today is 45.64%—a huge jump today, with about 4.5% of all stocks above their 50-day moving average.
This is an increase of 11% just today. Again, we see some expansion in trade. And again, I think now that we're going through the earnings reports, they're going to be significantly better than expected. There will be some exceptions that will make you think things are terrible, but I think most stocks will have pretty good earnings performance.
Again, most stocks have recently fallen in price, so things are looking pretty good. Unfortunately, this does not apply to cyber companies. Does not apply to hyperscalers, and does not apply to some AI stocks. For some of them, the bar is still much higher . But once reporting season is over , it will be great.
The Fed meeting yesterday, we got through it, great. We have midterm elections next Tuesday , we'll get through this, great. War with Iran, will it end with a deal? In the best case scenario, it will be a deal, and it will be done around November 3rd, maybe this weekend, and the stock will go up, okay?
If we have another kinetic conflict with Iran, as long as it doesn't target energy and oil infrastructure, stocks will go up, okay? So, you have a lot of events that are clarifying the situation, and I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic right now . Let me know what you think about all of this in the comments below.
Click the "like" button and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already . The links in today's episode description once again point to Kelshie and the trading community. If you want to join us, I wish you a wonderful continuation of the day, see you next time.
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