저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 6월 말 S&P500 5,500 도달을 전망하며 인플레 둔화와 고용 완만 냉각을 근거로 강세를 주장한다. 다만 시장 내부지표(50일선 상회 종목 37%, 공포탐욕지수 43, RSI 과열)는 악화되어 있고 숏 스퀴즈성 랠리라는 판단이다. 발표 자체는 변동성 확대와 방어적 태세를 권고하는 방향이다. 엔비디아 등 대형 기술주 쏠림과 경기둔화 우려도 언급된다.
다듬은 글
do you guys remember when Tom Lee said this starting off the month of June our next guest that says that June is going to well I'm going to tell I'm going to introduce you and then I'm going let him uh tell you because uh it we're not going to bury the lead on this let's get to Tom Lee a fun Strat he um he's pretty amazing a guy that we we try to visit with as much as we can he's on kind of a role um he is managing partner and head of research at fund Strat uh Global advisor is also a CNBC contributor and one once again you're doing exactly what I tell you not to do Tom and that is giving a price Target and a time frame never do both never do do one or the other but you're doing it again so 5,500 on the S&P by the end of June it's hard not to not to talk about that immediately based on Tom lower inflation that's right I think there's a fundamental case Joe which is uh inflation is coming in softer than expected and I think the job market is sort of it's cooling but not weakening dramatically and I think that's a good situation for equities and I think that this this the selloff in April actually hasn't really been fully recovered and that's why we expect expected a rebound in May but I think that carries over into June and there's still Six Trillion of cash on the sidelines and margin debt still way below where it was in October 2021 so we know investors really aren't that long yet so I I think that comes together this month with a pretty surprisingly robust move higher I'll be damned with the S&P 500 up almost 1% today you are at 5,478 on the SX now if you're looking at the Spy which most of you guys do that would be the equivalent of the spy at 550 you're pretty dang close to that right now give us one more day or half a day like we're seeing today and you're going to be right on Tom ley's Target and I'm fascinated to know what Tomley thinks is next so I will be on the lookout if he does go on last call tonight to discuss exactly that because I got to tell you guys this is a very historical Market there is like 10 stocks that are doing all of the work for markets that are pushing the S&P and the NASDAQ higher tomorrow we will get retail sales data that will come out and that will also be very important and we'll talk about that in just one moment but this Market is really historical in the sense that you continue to hit new all-time Highs but yet internally in the markets it it's really bad CNN's fear and greed index is sitting at 43 today which is in fear territory and you are hitting all-time highs the SNP has an RSI of 77.2 n anything above 70 is overbought you are as overbought now as you were back in December of 2023 when the markets were pricing in seven rate Cuts this year and a soft Landing but if you take a look at the NASDAQ things get a lot more extreme with the RSI at 82 the last time you had an 82 reading on the RSI was back briefly August of 2020 and I think technically you're actually sitting at a higher RSI now than you briefly hit then what happened after August when you did hit these extreme overbought levels is the NASDAQ ended up falling about 14% over the next 3 weeks or so following that is that going to happen again I don't know I don't think so but we'll see eventually there will be some kind of crazy you know setback for markets but I don't know exactly when that will be what I do know is stocks are very overextended here and to get a period of sideways or down trading would make a lot of logical sense especially given just how bad the internals of our markets are if you take a look at the percent you are almost at your lowest point of 2024 only 37% of stocks are above that 50-day moving average this compares to the end of December of 2023 when about 86% of stocks were above their 50-day moving average so that's why the markets internally are so bad most stocks a vast majority over 60% of stocks are trading under their 50-day moving average and yet markets are at alltime highs I don't know if you will see anything like this again in a for a very long time personally I've never seen this before in my investment Lifetime and if you guys want my honest opinion this looks like one of the biggest short squeezes that you have ever seen before not on an overall price action basis but on a nominal basis shorts are getting blown up with especially this move higher today 1 12% in the NASDAQ part of this move higher today could be due to the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index that came in at -6 the estimate was -10 which you're still negative you're still sitting at a very bad number but not as bad as it could have been you also had a six-month Bond auction that came in about 1 and a half basis points lower than expected and you have had some fed speakers today like fed Harker that came out and we're more on the doish side but tomorrow is the big day where you have a bunch of fed speakers including fed Collins around noon fed cougler at 1 p.m.
fed Logan at 1 p.m. fed musum at 1:20 p.m. fed gosby at 2 p.m. and others but tomorrow morning we'll be a big test for our markets at 8:30 in the morning Eastern Standard time when we get retail sales month over month last month retail sales came in at 0% we are expecting 0.2% and I think the higher the better because the reason Market internals look so bad and you only have 37% of stocks above their 50-day moving average is because there is recession being priced into the lower segments of our markets like the you know 95% down areas of our markets the F the top 5% % of our markets is not that is your big Tech that is your AI those are the guys that have really pushed the markets higher in recent weeks but with 73% of the economy and GDP dependent on consumers spending money retail sales is a good chunk of that if retail sales come in good it's really going to push away some of those recession fears could give you a broadening out of our markets but retail sales last month were 0% so if you come in negative then that's going to be really bad that's going to say on a month-over-month basis people actually spent less money so I think that will be a massive Catalyst coming tomorrow morning that will either push this Market to higher levels or give you a sharp draw down retail sales year-over-year are expected to come in at 2.8% last month they were 3% that could also be important to watch and industrial production month over month over month is expected at 0.
2% last month you were at 0% same thing here I think more production is going to be seen as good news so the higher this number comes in the better if it comes in negative well that's really bad you will also get business inventories last month that were negative 0.1% we are expecting positive 0.2% you will get fed Barkin that speaks at 10:00 in the morning the same time business inventories come out and then all of those other speakers that speak around noon the short interest on the S&P 500 sits at 9% today 3 months ago it was at 11.23% that is down 20% in 3 months if you look at the last 6 months the short interest was 12.66% that is down 29% in 6 months and if you look at the last year the short interest was 16.03% and that is down almost almost 44% in the last 12 months with a lot of this I would argue coming in just the last week or two I mean you were at 10 11% short interest at the end of May here you can see today which is actually interesting there is 5.15 million shares that are being borrowed on the Spy covered shares of 2.27 million so this data is actually reflecting that 2.87 million shares of spy have been sold short today so some people are trying to call the top here which again let's be honest with markets this overextended yeah I I mean the top could come any day as I mentioned in Prior videos you do have lonar that reports earnings today and after hours KB Holmes tomorrow and after hours and Thursday Kroger's and Darden Restaurants they own Olive Garden and other brands and then after hours Thursday you have Smith and Wesson CarMax and fax set Friday pre-market here over the next couple of weeks we will start to get a new round of earning season and that will be another big Catalyst for markets the Atlanta fed GDP now tracker gets a new update coming tomorrow morning when you get business inventories retail sales all of that you'll get a new update for GDP but the current estimate is sitting at about 3.1% for Q2 GDP with which if you look at the average estimate on Wall Street you're at about 2.2% what's Most Fascinating about this rally today despite the internals of the markets being so bad and you just continue higher at the most overextended level that you have been at since 2020 you have 10year treasury yields today that are actually up six basis points what you've seen in recent days and weeks is most stocks Your Average stock has been declining because of 10e Treasury yields falling now I know that sounds crazy but investors have been buying 10year treasury yields causing the yields to fall because of recession fears today there's less recession fears which is leading big Tech to go higher some areas of our markets to go higher but still it's not that broad-based but this is kind of contrary to what we have been used to in recent years where if 10year treasury yields were trading up on any given day especially six basis points you would expect stocks to fall nowadays when 10e treasur yields fall stocks are falling with them the JP Morgan desk today says well we had thought the market was setting up for a pullback based upon the price action during earning season narrowing breath reduced HF positioning and the potential for markets to take some profits given the almost 32% gain in the SPX since this bull run began in o October of 2023 38.6% for the NASDAQ this has not come to fruition and the near-term market setup points to another leg higher being more probable than a pullback the macro data should support this hypothesis into a seasonally strong July someone commented and says capitulation coms before a fall and Carl over here on X post this Meme and said interesting which does make you wonder after a day like today where markets just lagged higher if that's what we could be setting up for some kind of pullback because people are starting to capitulate and go all in this market and that's usually when the Market's punch you in the face in and D trick wres NX with a green close today that'll be 30 all-time highs for the S&P 500 in 2024 happened 20 other times and we finished the year green each time not all that surpris Rising with an average return of 19.6% and a median return of 19.5% game of Trades post on X Tech relative to the S&P 500 has now hit new highs the ratio is 10% higher than even the peak of the dot bubble that just means Tech is massively outperforming the S&P 500 Zero Hedge on X posted this image that says the mother of all mass layoffs is coming this is a chart of the transcripts of corporate America and the mentions of operational efficiency well what tends to happen when that those words come up more in in earnings calls operational efficiency is you tend to get more layoffs and you have seen that just start going crazy since 2021 and 2022 2023 especially and now 2024 hitting a new high that you have not seen since at least the start of this chart which was 2005 fed Harker said this morning we need to be cautious and want several more months of data which is all the more surprising that markets are ripping higher today leading me to another obvious conclusion this is most likely just a short squeeze again not all short squeezes lead into disaster but some do and I think it is a good moment to be a little bit defensive here and as meet Kevin points out on X 34% of all the gains of the S&P 500 this year are solely due to one stock that is NVIDIA again here you can see bar chart on X that is joking kind of uh I mean probably mind blown the same way that I am the CNN's fear and greed index is still in fear and markets are at at alltime Highs at the most overextended level that you have been at since August of 2020 something is just not adding up here Ryan dietrix said did anyone else hear about the Divergence under the surface of the S&P 500 I see it also but given everyone sees it makes you wonder if internals play catchup versus break down and that's just the bottom line that's what will happen here is either internals of our markets your average stocks start to catch up and do better and push markets higher and that only happens if recession fears start to fall in those sectors of our markets and inflation continues to fall and the FED can start to cut rates blah blah blah you guys already know the whole bullish shebang well a breakdown happens as you just get so overextended shorts start to cover buying pressure starts to run out a bit and investors start to go short again it also happens if a recession starts to become more obvious or if the FED does indeed make an error in which I don't know if either one of those things are going to happen all I know is something big is coming either a big catch up or a big catch down in markets and I think a big one to be watching for is NVIDIA typically post stock split in recent years companies that have split tend to actually sell off and you have not seen that at all in Nvidia Nvidia was only down about 1% on June 11th and other than that I mean it's been pretty vertical for NVIDIA as well again I do think it is time to be defensive to raise some cash to have a hedge or two on your portfolio I wouldn't be mad at that I think that is probably the smart and prudent thing to do as markets are seemingly disconnected from reality reality is the economy is slowing maybe into recession maybe not but the point is the economy is slowing down earnings expectations are 15% growth for 2 years in the S&P 500 EPS that's hard to obtain even in a very strong economy and you also have a Fed that looks certain that they are going to force an economic downturn before they start cutting rates these things are all problematic and lead me to be more defensive but again hopefully you learned something if you did consider sticking around a while
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