저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 현재 투기 자산이라 법정화폐를 대체하기 어렵지만, 향후 10년간 달러 위기가 올 경우 안전자산으로 부상할 수 있다는 장기 베팅 논리. 개인 투자 이력: 2013년 약 80달러 근처에서 대량 매수해 한때 전체 비트코인의 약 5%를 보유했으나 이후 추가 매수는 없었음. 현재 대부분은 운용사에 맡겨 헤지·세무 구조를 활용하는 방식으로 보유. 현재 비트코인 평가: 달러 대비 약 9시그마 이상 변동성이 커 법정화폐 대체 수단으로는 부적합. 통화시장 대비 유동성이 부족해 일중 2,000베이시스포인트 변동이 나오면 실사용이 어렵고 데이트레이더·투기꾼의 영역에 머물러 있음. 향후 시나리오: 투기세력이 털려나가고 장기 보유자의 관심이 남으며 기존 금융 인프라가 흔들리는 과정을 거쳐야 자리잡을 수 있다고 봄. 현재 경로는 지속 인플레이션으로 탈출하는 방향(경로1)과 디플레이션 붕괴 위험(경로2)으로 나뉨. 경로2 가능성: 2030년까지 인플레이션으로 위기를 넘기지 못할 확률이 과거 1%에서 현재 약 5~10%로 상승했다고 평가. 이 경우 비트코인은 금 2.0 같은 준금본위 역할을 하며 안전자산으로 부상할 수 있음. 베팅 성격: 가격은 80달러에서 8,000, 3,000, 13,000달러 등 중간 수준이 중요하지 않고 0 아니면 수백만 달러로 가는 이진적 투자라고 설명. 10년 장기 궤적으로 보고 그 기간 동안 헤지 기회가 충분하다고 언급. 정부·중앙은행 간 합의로 금본위 유사 장치를 만들기는 어렵지만, 개인들이 상향식으로 도입할 가능성은 열려 있다고 봄. 언급 자산 및 방향: 비트코인은 장기 상승 가능성 언급(조건부). 미국 달러 가치 하락 위험과 디플레이션 위험 언급. 개별 주식·지수·금리 등 다른 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. 리스크: 단기 변동성 극심, 경로2가 현실화되지 않으면 투자 가치 소멸 가능. 전망 기간은 10년 장기. 출연자 전망 요약: 비트코인이 장기적으로 안전자산 역할을 할 가능성을 조건부로 낙관하나, 현재는 투기 자산으로 불안정하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
this leads to Bitcoin right you're famous for calling it the schmuck insurance I'm not going to say that we're in the situation where the insurance is needed yet but we're definitely headed that direction over a long period of time how are your views on Bitcoin kind of changed over time and have you bought more bitcoins sold Bitcoin or change anything in kind of a portfolio allocation standpoint so first of all I think you said it exactly right which is that I think that this is the set up meaning I think Bitcoin needed a moment like this for it to be relevant in 2003 oh sorry 2013 I bought a lot and at one point I think I had almost 5% of all bitcoins my basis is about 80 bucks a coin I've never bought more most of my Bitcoin now sit with a company and you know they use it for trading purposes they use it to run a bunch of other strategies and I did that mostly for safety and security and peace of mind I didn't want to deal with it I wanted to own equity in the business that equity can be hedged that equity can be tax structured advantageous ly and then it allows them to run a big business which generates cash and I can get a cash and you know dividend stream so I have not bought since I initially basically wrote that article for Bloomberg in 2013 my thoughts are the following right now I think what you're seeing is that it's still a speculative instrument and it's too speculative for it to be reliable so if you're going to make the case that you know it should replace fiat currency well one thing you have to look at is the volatility of the US dollar and you can't replace it with something that's 9 Sigma more volatile it doesn't work and the reason it doesn't work is that it's - again going back to what markets are important the only market that's even more important than the debt markets are the currency markets and what you see is enormous amounts of liquidity where 5% moves so 500 basis point are newsworthy well those 500 this point moves in the absence of some massive exhaustion is that that takes years to play out and in that there's value because it allows more market participants to be active in that market so that they can use it as a critical pillar of how they run their business but now all of a sudden if you have 2,000 basis point moves a half-hour you can't effectively use it and so what it does is it pushes it into this ghetto of day traders and and speculators and right now that's where we are we're in that ghetto and you need to get out and the way that it gets out is that you need to flush the speculators and day traders out and you need to have still some basis of interest from long-term holders and then you need to have it slowly look like the traditional infrastructure could really implode so again I go back to we are driving slowly but we are driving towards a top of a cliff and then we're going to drive much much faster down that cliff tore down that hill and at the end of it is a is a huge brick wall the way we avoid it is by pivoting to a resilient economy where we introduced in efficiency and cost and inflate our way out of it or debasement the path dependence for Bitcoin is if it looks like path two is likely it will really emerge as a flight to safety and over the next 10 years where this trajectory is going to take shape and it is a ten-year trajectory you'll have a lot of time to vector into it to protect yourself and to hedge yourself and I've always thought of Bitcoin as a very binary investment whether it goes from 80 to eight thousand to six thousand to three thousand to thirteen thousand it just it doesn't matter this is either zero or it's millions because what it will do is it will create a quasi gold standard it'll create an index except instead of having to own gold where gold is owned by central banks it is an instrument that has value that's determined by in between its participants and it's owned by everybody so maybe the correct way to say this is that it's not gold but in gold being gold 2.0 which some people have used about Bitcoin what it does is it replaces the the method of value transfer that you need for fiat money to be valuable but that only happens if the US dollar looks like it's going to careen into this wall so I think that's the bet so the setup is here so before there was no path dependence meaning you were speculating and not really hoping because you know if you were if you're using as schmuck insurance as I was you were kind of hoping it would never come in but now if the probability you know was 1% that that it would be valuable unfortunately the probability is now probably like 5 or 10% and there's a real chance by 2030 we don't find a way to inflate our way out of this and that the only way to break the back of deflation is essentially to create some quasi form of gold standard but it'll be almost impossible to do that between governments and central bank's they'll never agree on an instrument and they'll never agree on an exchange but then bottoms up people could decide to do it
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