저자: PrestonPysh · 외국인
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결론: 프레스턴 파이시는 워런 버핏식 가치투자 접근에 레이 달리오의 거시경제 관점을 결합해 투자 철학을 형성했으며, 그 과정에서 비트코인에 관심을 갖게 됐다고 밝힌다. 투자 철학 형성 과정: 2008년 금융위기를 계기로 투자 공부에 깊이 빠졌고, 약 20년간 개인 투자와 독서를 지속해왔다고 설명한다. 버핏의 'Security Analysis' 등을 탐독했다. 달리오 접근법의 영향: 토니 로빈스의 책을 통해 레이 달리오를 알게 됐고, 버핏 추종자들이 무시하는 거시 요소와 금 보유 같은 관점이 자신의 기존 생각과 정반대라 오히려 흥미를 느꼈다고 말한다. 달리오의 'How the Economic Machine Works' 영상과 200~250페이지 분량의 관련 매뉴얼을 깊이 공부했으며, 이를 대학 경제학 수업보다 가치 있다고 평가한다. 현재 투자 방식: 자신의 투자 접근법은 기본 원칙 기준 대략 달리오 50%, 버핏 50%로 구성된다고 설명한다. 거시 지표에 대한 우려: 80년 주기의 신용 사이클을 인식하게 됐고, 10년물 국채금리가 40년간 상승한 뒤 40년간 하락해 0% 수준에 이른 점을 매우 우려스럽게 봤다고 말한다. 비트코인 투자 계기: 2014년경 이러한 거시 자료를 읽으며 비트코인에 관심을 갖게 됐고, 2015년 2분기 초 첫 비트코인을 매수했다고 밝힌다. 이 발언은 과거 경험 설명이며 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 포함되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
I just really started reading as much as I could get my hands on in the financial markets and one thing led to another and it really kind of early on I was like okay so who's the smartest investor out there what books have they read what do they think about and so it led me to warren buffett I kind of became obsessed with anything and everything Warren Buffett related you can probably see the security analysis book that back there behind me I had the whole thing tabbed out and highlighted and just totally nerd it out on the thing and you know 2008 hits and learned real fast that there was a lot of parts to the investing story that I still didn't understand through that through that event and just made me dig in even more and so through the years I mean I've been at it for probably two decades nearly at this point just investing personally and reading as much as I can possibly get my hands on and then just studying anybody who has made lots of money in the market and just trying to understand how their brain ticks and how they've been able to pick it apart and here we are so yeah that's I'd say that's probably the the Cliff Notes version for sure how did you originally come across a Bitcoin and kind of crypto measure doing that study you know I uh I was not a macro person at all for the longest time and believe it or not it's kind of funny because I read Tony Robbins book oh god I can't even remember the name of he's done two of them the first one I think it was just called money master the game was the first one and in the book he talks about Ray Dalio a lot and I'd really not studied Ray Dalio didn't know really anything about his approach but Tony was just I mean pumping him so hard in this book as if he was the master of everything right and Here I am as a Warren Buffett person and just you know the the propaganda from Buffett is that if it's macro related you just ignore it and you just look at the individual company and it's kind of this ground-up analysis and macro is too hard to understand so you just ignore it and so Dalio I was just kind of blown away how much Tony Robbins was talking him up so I started reading everything I could get my hands on on revalue like how does he have his opinion well why is it structured this way why does he have gold in his portfolio that's nuts because any Warren Buffett person will tell you Gold's worthless so like all these ideas that were just they were so counter to everything that I believed up to that point and I loved it because it was counter to what I thought and if you study anybody who's made a lot of money in the markets they they absolutely love it when somebody has the opposite opinion of them and they want to understand all the reasons why so that was me I was like okay I just tried to read everything I can on Ray Dalio next thing I know Ray had posted and it's not available online anymore but luckily I got the PDF and I printed this thing before it was taken offline but I mean his whole there's a really famous video that Ray Dalio did it's called how the economic machine works it's a thirty minute video I would tell you that video that thirty minute video is probably more valuable than anything you'll probably ever learn in a business school economics class ever and I truly mean that if you don't believe me pull up the video watch it for yourself and I'm pretty much sure that that's probably the conclusion you'll draw at the end of it well anyway Ray had a I'd say it was a it's on the Shelf back there to it probably 200 to 250 page manual that was the text behind that video it went into a lot more detail than that video and I studied the living hell out of this thing I mean just read it and read it again and then started digging into like all these ideas that Ray had and so I would tell you that as I look at my investing approach today I would tell you it's probably 50% Dalio and 50% Buffett as far as the fundamentals maybe you know 10% you could shave off to some other folks but in in general I'd say it's a 50/50 split between those two investors as to how I think about markets and so that's how I started getting in where I started getting interested in Bitcoin is because I'm looking at all the things from the Dalio approach and I'm saying this is this is pretty darn scary now that I'm seeing the world from a completely different vantage point and all these macro factors and you've got these 80 year credit cycles which I was not even aware of as a value investor with a Buffett style approach but when you start looking at those charts and you see the 10 year Treasury that went up for 40 years and now it's gone down for 40 years and now it's at zero percent and well what does that mean well we can get into all the what all that means but as a person who never looked at that I can tell you it was pretty alarming for me probably oh boy five years ago I'd say is whenever I the light swells more than that because I started getting into Bitcoin it was probably 2014 when I started reading all that and it quickly led me to Bitcoin and I made my first purchase at the start of the second quarter in 2015 for Bitcoin
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