저자: TomLee · 외국인
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대선 불확실성 속 2024년 증시는 3단계(5~6월 상승 후 여름 횡보·하락, 하반기 반등)로 전망. 감세 만료·자본이득세 인상 시 에너지 약세·헬스케어 압박 우려. 경기침체 여부가 핵심 관찰 지표이며 현재 GDP는 양호. 금리 인하 시 중소형주(스몰캡) 수혜 가능성 언급, 빅테크는 고금리 수혜 측면. 전반적으로 신고가 기대는 낮고 횡보·조정 가능성 제시.
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Tom Lee just dropped some pretty big news for investors he just gave you an overview of his expectations for this entire year now to be fully open honest transparent with you guys I was in the shower yeah it's kind of weird I know but when I heard this clip I knew you guys had to hear it as soon as possible so I threw on whatever I could find this hoodie literally has paint on it from when I painted the house didn't even put the Hat on yet go figure you need to hear this we're also going to be going over what the FED just did and why stocks reacted the way that they did and ultimately what could be coming next in the near term for our markets we are still seven 7even months out from the election it's going to feel like 10 years but it's only 7 months but of course wild speculation is already in full swing and now the former guy last name Trump is starting to close the gap in some of the online prediction markets yes the odds on political betting Market predicted still show President Biden with a lead but that lead is down a bit from a couple of weeks ago and since the election really does only come down to about five or six states we also got a look there and the latest polling for morning consult showing that the former president leading in all but one of those so-called Battleground States now some polls will be different but there you go of course we are CNBC so we're not doing this for just political reasons others do that we mentioned it because it could matter to the markets and your money Trump has said he wants lower interest rates I mean he is a real estate guy after all and President Biden wants to let the entire 2017 tax cuts expire which would jack up taxes on everyone if he is unable to redo it and carve out a provision for people making under $400,000 remember he said that but it's not a sure thing the whole thing expires you have to start from scratch and in the stock market defense stocks keep moving up as the real risk of war is rising in the Middle East again this is not a political we'll leave that to others but the election could certainly matter a lot to the markets the economy and your money joining us now as maning partner in the head of research at fund Strat Global advisors Tom Lee again not an advocate for one or the other but if we start to see a shift what will shift in the market well uh as you as you point out markets you know investors have to think about well things could change in November and to me two areas that are obvious would be I think oil prices would likely be lower because it'd be more drilling so I think energy stocks would come under pressure I think Health Care would come under pressure as well and you should see a commensurate lift in in groups like Industrials and you know as you talk about the Middle East War ramping up oil should be going up and it's not so in a way the fact that energyy is done poorly does tell us something else might be at work yeah and I think that's kind of what we're looking at it's an excellent point right you talk about maybe we somehow get to 15 million barrels a day in oil well you're probably looking at 6065 oil yep that's right o lower oil is great for consumers but it does mean lower prices for oil and it wouldn't be great necessarily for the energy complex and the president has said now here's the disconnect the president's people will say and the president himself has said sometimes I'm going to you know let the tax cuts expire for everybody but those making over 400,000 but the problem is that that's not how it works it's it's an act it's a rule the whole thing has to expire then you have to start from scratch and the president has said a number of times and his team has posted it the Twitter he's going to let the whole thing expire so if we're facing down the barrel of higher taxes for everybody at the end of next year minus the salt deduction cap which I wouldn't mind seeing going away by the way personally then what yeah and it you know it's not only uh could tax cuts expire but you know I think investors worry about a new plan that might include much higher capital gains taxes as well so I think that that's talked about that yeah and I think that's going to send a obviously a Big Chill to markets as well and higher corporate taxes but our corporate taxes which they're always like this Boogeyman people don't realize that corporate taxes while important are a small part of federal tax revenue that said they matter to the companies themselves would higher corporate taxes mean lower stock prices you know there's going to be an optical confusion for investors because you know European corporates have much lower statutory tax rates rates so over time investors are going to look at us and they're going to have earnings and they have to say well should I adjust the multiple because the tax rates are higher but ultimately it's not great for stocks because uncertainty creates discounts do you expect the markets I know you're still optimistic still bullish right and you've been right you've been long and strong and correct do you think we're going to kind of see what we saw in 2016 which is like a summer of nothing from the stock market summer is a slower time anyway yeah but when you got this election and and these the two are within a percent some polls are up some are down it doesn't matter it's going to be close we know that do you expect this people just say you know what selling may go away because I don't know what's going to happen in November yeah I I think it is probably a three-phase year you know I think we're still in the up phase so maybe May June we still rally but I do think there's going to be uh a period of doldrums and adjustment and then we rally I know sometime in the back half of the year so I do think that middle part could be flat to down damn Tom Lee the middle of the year is going to be flat to down I think I need a drink so bris bris te for that this stuff is actually pretty nasty 97% of your daily sugar 49 grams of sugar in okay that's got to go what Tom Le just said is important let's not try to get too too political here because we're not about politics have your personal biases and keep them where they are politics normally do not change anything okay whether it is a Republican president a Democratic president no matter if you know one president let's call it Republican controls the Senate the house the presidency or it's a Democrat it doesn't matter okay markets historically have performed actually better under Democrats because they tend to spend more money and and markets typically like that this time around though there's there's just different policies like polar opposite in terms of the policy structure that is being campaigned right let's just call it for what it is T-man he wants lower taxes lower rates more of a deglobalization you know bring things back to the US or at least that's what we hear Biden kind of the same thing the de globalization a AKA as well he's probably good you know this that's pretty inflationary deglobalization and it can create a more hostile World long term but you have bman over here that wants to raise taxes on corporations capital gains taxes there are some actual implications here if you have a lot of money if you are a billionaire if you do own a lot of stock there is implications there depending on who wins you may benefit from whatever side that you are on now I don't really care about that too much that can eek into the market so as the polls start to shift it is certainly possible you could Envision a market that could start to react more to political headlines and that is certainly possible we have seen that happen in the past I don't really care about that too much though I think if you are an investor in stocks what Jerome Powell just said told us a lot today but the number one thing you want to be watching for throughout 2024 is are we going into a recession or not that's it okay stocks are fairly valued they're not cheap you can make an argument they're expensive but I would say they're just sitting at fairly valued as long as you don't go into recession as long as the economy stays well and as long as people stay employed and continue to spend money and right now according to Fed Jerome Powell that's kind of what he's seeing feder said if you exclude the inventory numbers out of quarter of a quarter GDP which came in really low last week then you actually seen a GDP number coming in over 3% % which suggests the economy is still doing well and that is good for stocks take a stroll down memory lane you remember 2022 at least I hope you do it was a pretty rough year why we didn't have a recession earning sure went down a little bit like $20 on the S&P 500 whoopy dang Deuce big deal the problem was everyone thought we were going to go into recession it was by the end of 2022 the start of 2023 May year 2023 the end of the year 2023 markets kind of got over that now you don't really have anyone that's calling for a recession these days and that's usually when a recession does come now if you think back to your most recent recessions let's call it the dot bubble that was mainly fueled by speculation in stocks that were unprofitable it would be like it would be like meme stocks on steroids okay and most of your stocks were meme stocks back in the dotcom bubble of course that was going to end in tragedy there there that that was I mean you could have seen that from a mile away and people did at the time and made money from it if you think about the dotcom bubble what happened Banks started to go under you know the fed the government was too late to bail out certain Institutions and well people lost their jobs that's what happened that was the central Catalyst Leman brothers and uh Bear Sterns Leman Brothers was earlier in the year I believe March of 2007 and then um uh Leman Brothers was September 15th 2007 and that was when everything came crashing down following Leman Brothers if you think back to the latest session that we had it was the Ron Rona now in in in the past you know 24 years let's call it you haven't seen a recession start are out of nowhere so I think you want to be on watch for any kind of centralized event that could cause a recession because to be quite honest I think we're overdue for one since we have really not had a real recession to flush out excess you know um risky Investments or bad Investments since really 2008 2009 it's it's been a long time now during an election year you're probably not going to get a recession 2025 could be a bigger problem now as Tom Lee said In that clip the middle of this year could be problematic now I I I don't think it's going to be that bad like it's not going to be a 2022 situation unless the economy starts to look like it's getting worse and then then at that point the fed's going to start cutting rates and then we'll have to make the assessment of how bad's the economy going to get where where's the you know fed funds rate going to be that's really a topic for down the line okay the FED is not worried about stag flation they're not worried Jerome B said I don't see the Stag or deflation dude's got too much swag up there on the podium he sounded very confident and very bullish here's the deal though if we do get a little bit of weakness in the economy in which that's kind of my expectation as you head into this summer one area of the markets specifically will rally because a little bit of weakness well not a terrible thing but it gives the FED a reason to start cutting rates so I think with markets fully valued you're not getting any discounts on there you're not getting any stocks on the S&P 500 broadly that are trading at huge discounts at least not on you know your big Tech basis I think the small caps would be the area to really win in that environment especially if you did get the PO starting to favor tman and you know that would mean likely lower rates to go remember what T-man told Jerome Powell back in 2018 he said cut rates or you are fired and what happened about a month or two later Jerome Powell started cutting rates so I think Le kind trying to leave out the politics here but I think politics can start to have an effect on the markets it's like Tom Lee and what they were talking about on CNBC so I don't think a big crash is coming anytime soon unless you do get a Black Swan event and kind of an outsized you know bad bad Catalyst I don't think you're entering entering into stagflation I do think inflation will continue to come down as the FED said but it's going to be bumpy I do think though if we get into that kind of environment where you see a little bit of weakness and some rate cuts or and and maybe T-man starts to take the lead in all of the polls then I think your small caps can start to do very well but I think when Tom Lee is talking about this as he did today he's really referencing the S&P and the NASDAQ on a headline basis you guys got to keep in mind that you could have 90% of stocks doing well on our markets if all of your big Tech was selling off your mag 7 the markets wouldn't do much of anything and in that scenario if if you had let's say Microsoft uh Google Amazon Apple Nvidia meta all of those big tech stocks let's say they were down 2% in a single day you could have every other stock in the markets go up 2% in a day and you would still have the S&P and the NASDAQ red that just shows you kind of the waiting in the markets now in a theoretical example here because we don't know what's going to happen but if indeed you do do start to see some weakness in the economy and the FED starts to cut rates big Tech is not the area of the markets that benefits from rate cuts it is the small caps that's the bottom line you could actually make an argument that big Tech May benefit from rates being higher for longer because all of their billions and billions and billions of dollars in the bank collects them more free money if rates start to fall that starts to go away and that's problematic so long story short I'm not expecting new all-time highs this year Tom Lee is is you know bullish he's not necessarily calling for new alltime highs this year but I'm not expecting alltime highs I do think you can chop around trade sideways for a bit whoopdee whoopdee doop spin in circles blah blah blah but you probably do get more downside heading into this summer as you did in 2016 if you do get some outsized upside it's probably going to be in those small cap stocks in my personal opinion that's where I think the risk to reward investing in our markets right now makes a lot of sense keep in mind later on today you will have Apple earnings and that will be very important for the markets and then coming on Friday morning you are going to get the non-farm payroll report as well as the unemployment rate and we'll see what happens there I I I I really don't think it matters too much as long as you come in line with expectations expectations for non- Farms are sitting at about 240,000 job ads for the month of April if you come in higher than that that could be a little problematic for markets but again people employed that's likely going to mean good earnings this year if you come in under 200,000 that's going to be great news if you come under come in under 120,000 130 140,000 then the markets might start to panic a little bit more and say that's a great deal of weakening in the labor market same thing is true with the unemployment rate that's expected to come in at 3.8% if that were to rise to 4% that would be a new high for at least the past year and that would not be great if you go higher than 4% that's where the FED starts to kind of watch and see like hey maybe we should start the process of reducing rates and again that does benefit the small cap stocks so maybe even coming by this Friday I wouldn't count it out but small caps could be the outperformer for the rest of this week and you can see in after hours uh iwm was the outperformer
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