저자: TomLee및패널다수 · 외국인
요약 보기
1분기 GDP 디플레이터·PCE 등 물가지표가 예상보다 높아 스태그플레이션 우려가 제기됨. 실적시즌은 80%가 어닝 상회로 양호하나 고평가 빅테크(MSFT·GOOGL)는 기대치 과다로 실적 후 하락 가능성 언급. 미 10년물 금리 4.70%(연내 5% 근접 가능성)가 증시 리스크로 지목. 기술적으로 나스닥 20일선(433)·200일선(396) 지지 관찰. 실제 영상 후반에 MSFT·GOOGL 실적 호조로 나스닥 상승 전환 언급.
다듬은 글
we got some big economic data that came out this morning that shows the economy is not nearly as strong as what investors previously thought it was you also got some data this morning that was pretty inflationary and overall kind of set a bad tone heading into tomorrow's pce report keep in mind you do have Microsoft and Google reporting earnings here in just a few moments and I believe they're going to be good earnings but those stocks they're probably going to fall why is that they're trading near alltime highs expectations are high they're probably not going to be able to wow investors and in this market if you're trading at alltime highs and you cannot literally wow investors you're probably going to fall after earnings that's essentially what happened with Netflix and that's what just happened last night with meta as well so we're going to get into all of that here in this video stay tuned I do want to share with you first things first what Tom Lee just said on CNBC today about markets now reaction to maybe what to do Tom Lee and Joe Tom I'll start with you honestly I don't think enough attentions to this capital gains proposal we got last night I think that might be sprinkled in here but anyway GDP is getting all the attention Steve laid it out nicely what is your take uh well um I I agree with Steve's point you know the GDP number did catch people off guard the core price index being basically a hot number 2 N year- over year but it is going to come down to the revisions which everyone expects I I think there's also now a disconnect between the CP numbers we're seeing and like what we hear from companies or even uh you know consumer surveys I mean for instance in just this first quarter earnings season the mentions of inflation as a problem is now at the lowest level since the first quarter of 2021 so it makes me wonder how how is inflation accelerating when fewer companies are even mentioning it as a problem in the first quarter um and uh I think that there are catalysts you know in the next couple of weeks I mean the first one of course is tomorrow to see really what March inflation looks like but I think the earnings backdrop has actually been very supportive any 80% of companies are beating so as painful as the last couple of days have been and really the last couple of weeks I actually think it's the risk rewards positive here so the firm Landing is here in my opinion we did hear we did hear from whirlpool we did hear from Harley-Davidson that they are having difficulty passing through Rising input costs to the consumer and that's not a bad thing in fact if you look at the price action today right now where we are in the market we have recovered everything that we lost after the GDP print and after the inflation Figures were released so we've recovered it all this is really where we sit in the marketplace right now off of meta and the spending that's attributed to meta I think that the rest of the world is experiencing a disinflationary trend that ultimately is going to get exported here to the United States Brian you look at Europe you're talking about inflation readings that are in the twos whether it's it's France or Germany Italy's at 1.2 Asia is in outright deflation that's coming here and I just don't think that's a bad thing and the premise for buying equities in 2024 never was about the Fed pass the cut rates because if it was at the beginning of the year when there was seven rate Cuts priced in now we're pricing in one rate cut maybe in December well the equity Market would be lower from uh the starting point J We're actually higher Joe and and John jump in on this can we just like remember the Super Bowl with the Falcons and the Patriots and the Falcons are up like 100 to nothing at half time whatever and then Brady comes back and wins can we all just owledge that the stock market is up this week even with today we're still higher for the week we're we're only like a percent or two off all-time highs Market has one big down day profit profit margins are strong you know everyone wants to focus on the economic recession that never happened the real recession that happened that matters most is the earnings recession and we've come out of the earnings recession in the second half of 2023 for the S&P and the NASDAQ we're waiting on the Russell and that's a catalyst yeah Tom though we've got a couple big names tonight and we'll get Dan's take on that in just a second Dan eyes but I mean what if if Microsoft and alphabet uh soil the sheets I think is is that the is that the familyfriendly term with with the numbers tonight I mean then what cuz Meta Meta kind of did yeah I mean meta was up 40% into the earnings report so I think expectations were high I think there has been sort of a reset so I I think there's a hey if it's a a beat we could see stocks rewarded and overall it has been a good earning season you know 80% of companies are beating and if you really exclude energy you're really pushing up against double digit earnings growth year-over year so it's exactly what Joe is saying it's it's a been a pretty nice earnings recovery and I think as you get into the second half of this year Healthcare no longer has negative year over your comp so you know you could be back into mid teens earnings growth so I think the earnings backdrops really supportive and there's still 6 trillion of cash on the sidelines with that clip played I think me and Tom Lee share similar opinions on many different things like you would rather be long in this Market earnings are going to come in better than expected um across the board but the expectation is just too high so I do think that sets you up for disappointment in certain stocks that are trading at very high levels and very high valuations now I think the biggest thing that could dictate what happens to the markets from this point on is how inflation goes in the economy because this morning we got a little bit of a warning on the economy this morning we had the GDP growth rate quarter over quarter Advanced Data for q1 there's going to be two more of these quarter over quarter readings that will come out but what happens lately is the first reading is really high and then the other ones come down so if this was the high one and the next two are even lower you're going to be in for a big big problem so the estimate was about 2.5% C quarter of a quarter GDP growth you came in at 1.6% that was almost 1% lower than what Wall Street was expecting the economy is not nearly as strong as we thought but what's weird is take a look at this GDP price index quarter of quarter came in at 3.1% the estimate was 3% last quarter was 1.7% so you're literally almost a double up from last quarter that's not great now core PC prices quarter over quarter came in at 3.7% the estimate was 3 .
4% so that was higher than expected there last quarter was 2% so almost a double up there as well and then pce prices quarter over quarter came in at 3.4% the estimate was 2.9% so basically across the board as far as your inflationary data your pce for quarter of quarter it came in a lot higher than expected and I don't want to say it I don't want to say it do you want to say it can can you say stagflation can you say stagflation that's I guess a no but uh stagflation is um not good and that's like this the stock market's worst enemy is high inflation stagnating growth if you're going to have high inflation you better have some high growth to go alongside it because during a stagflationary environment you know where where there's stagnant growth maybe not you know recessionary but stagnant growth and high inflation it's not like it makes sense for the FED to necessarily cut rates because the economy is still doing okay when inflation is strong it really puts the FED in a bit of a tricky situation and that could be the direction we're heading in we do need more data in which we'll get that data coming out tomorrow morning and tomorrow morning I would expect to see a huge um either fall or rally in markets you are going to get core PC price index month over month expected to come in the same as last month so 0.3% uh was last month and that's what you're expecting again I actually think the the expectation is pretty high um maybe you do come in light and again when you look at the quarter over quarter PC data that we got today that is including January February and March these uh pce data numbers that we're going to get are just for the month of March maybe it's Poss January and February were really high and then March wasn't as high that is a possibility so it is a possibility that even though you had bad PC data today you could actually get PC coming in below expectations tomorrow at about 0.2% I wouldn't say that's my base case but I do think there's a pretty strong chance like a 30ish per chance that you come in around 0.2% um coming tomorrow for core pce Now personal income month over month is expect did around 0.5% half of 1% yesterday you were at zero or yesterday last month you were at 0.3% so expecting personal income to rise that's not again necessarily good for that stagflationary argument if companies input cost are rising they tend to pass on cost to customers and then personal spending is expected to fall as well from 0.8% last month to 0.6% now based on the PC data that we got the quarter of quarter data 10year treasury yields went up five basis points today even though it showed the economy is not as strong as people thought it's still not weak enough though to justify we're going into recession the FED should start cutting rates sooner now that's not good you're at 4.70% a new high for 2024 and it looks like you could be knocking on the doorstep of 5% 10year treasury yields in the not so distant future at that point I think markets start to break or at the bare minimum you start to get more concentration into big Tech assuming that Google and Microsoft earnings are good in which again I think those stocks are going to fall after earnings because I think earnings expectations are too high although they are down today so that does lower expectations maybe the Falls are not as extreme but we'll have to wait and see I believe they report earnings um like 20 minutes after the Bell or 30 minutes after the Bell something along those lines and they will obviously have a role to play in how the markets trade coming tomorrow now here at the time of recording this video you are back above your 100 day moving average if indeed things are okay with tomorrow's data if big Tech earnings do not disappoint then you're likely heading back to your 20-day moving average which is around 433 on the NASDAQ that would represent upside from here of about 2% okay if things are bad if tomorrow's data is bad if the earnings are bad then I do think you do fall down to that 200 day moving average and that would put the NASDAQ down to about 396 um that's that's not even a a bad place to be I mean considering you would still be up from your October November lows um about 16 a half% so it's not like that would be a terrible level to be at it's not like the markets would just be falling apart at that point but um I think we really want to watch how the economy evolves from here the main bull thesis right now is the economy is strong that's going to drive company earnings that theory got tested a little bit today with the data that we got it looks like Microsoft has beat on earnings they are up close to about 5% that was around the ex expected move so maybe Tom Lee is correct yet again never mind Microsoft up 52% Google coming out with their earnings up over 12% after declaring a surprise dividend wow uh yeah this could be a different story coming tomorrow NASDAQ currently up 1.3% holy moly that's going to go ahead and do it for this video you're not going to get much guidance out of Microsoft until the earnings call itself so do keep that in mind still going to be a lot of volatility but
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