저자: Max · 외국인
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결론: 유럽 경기침체·재정위기 우려가 커서 브리지워터의 유럽 대형주 대규모 공매도 베팅이 합리적으로 보인다는 입장. 시장 동향: 월요일 미국장 휴장으로 선물 기준 S&P500 약 +1.1%, 다우 약 +0.9%. 유럽은 FTSE100 +1.7%, STOXX600 +1.0%. 변동성은 여전히 높아 큰 등락이 계속될 것으로 봄. 환율·금리·원자재: 달러 지수 약 -0.2%, 유로·파운드 소폭 강세(달러당 유로 1.05 수준). 독일 10년물 금리 +9bp(1.75%), 영국 10년물 +11bp(2.6%, 약 8년 고점). 유가는 지난주 최고점보다 낮으나 WTI 약 110달러, 브렌트 약 113달러로 여전히 높음. 금은 온스당 약 1840달러로 큰 변동 없음. 가상자산: 비트코인 약 2.1만 달러, 이더리움 약 1100달러로 소폭 반등. 바이낸스의 대규모 비트코인 매입, 솔라나 중앙화 논란(2.17억 달러 자산 동결 시도 후 철회) 등을 리스크로 지적. 바이낸스 매입은 건강하지 않은 시장 신호라고 비판. 미국 주택시장: 모기지 금리 약 7%(1년 전 약 3%)로 월 상환액이 사실상 두 배 가까이 늘어 지속 불가능하다고 봄. 캐피털 이코노믹스는 1년 내 평균 주택가격 5% 하락을 예상(Bloomberg 인용). 2023년 이후 캐피털 이코노믹스는 다시 강세 전망. 진행자는 확신하지 않으며 연준과 경기침체 강도에 달려 있다고 봄. 영국 주택시장: 금리 상승으로 유사한 위험, 주택 공급 부족과 정부의 모기지 규제 완화를 비판. 2006~2007년식 주택시장 붕괴 가능성 언급. 에너지 정책: 미국 등의 전략비축유 방출(하루 약 100만 배럴, 연내 총 약 2.5억 배럴)은 가격에 뚜렷한 효과가 없었다고 평가. 유가 상한제는 공급 감소를 악화시킬 수 있으나 OPEC이 가격 유지하며 생산을 늘릴 가능성도 있다고 봄. 러시아 제재 목적의 런던 보험업 제재는 다른 시장이 빈자리를 메울 것이라 효과가 제한적일 것으로 봄. 관세: 바이든 행정부의 중국산 관세 완화 논의는 단기 인플레 완화에 도움되겠지만, 장기적으로 공급망의 중국 이탈 흐름과 상충한다고 봄. 브리지워터: 세계 최대 헤지펀드가 유럽 주요 기업(루이비통모에헤네시, 사노피, 지멘스가메사, 로레알, 메르세데스, 에어버스 등) 약 100억 달러 규모 숏 포지션을 잡은 것으로 보도. 유럽 재정위기(PIGS 국채금리 상승), 유로 체제 모순, 프랑스 등의 마이너스 성장, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁발 에너지 위기를 근거로 베팅이 이해된다고 평가. 진행자는 공개 발언이 아니라 포지션 추적으로 알려진 점도 언급. 리스크: 시장 변동성 지속, 연준 정책, 침체 강도, 러시아 제재 및 에너지 공급 변수. 출연자 전망: 진행자 Max는 유럽 약세·미국 주택 하락 우려에 무게를 두되 일부는 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi guys max here and this is your daily market update for yesterday monday the first day of the week now it was a little bit of an odd monday because u.s markets weren't open which is why we're looking at a world map of stocks right here because well u.s markets didn't open as i said now there were of course futures actions and various contracts and derivatives so we do have a rough idea of how american equities performed even if it isn't perfect uh futures on the s p 500 for instance rose by about 1.1 percent across the course of the day and futures for the dow jones rose by about 0.9 in the rest of the world it was really quite a mixed bag as you can see the americas weren't too clean but the rest of the world was alright asia was quite strong and europe was cautiously okay the ftse 100 rose by 1.7 and the stock 600 rose by 1 for the day on the whole then the msci world index rose by about 0.2 now what was really going on to drive this uh this movement in equities well it was just a very slight and uneasy rebound from what was an absolutely awful week before where equities fell four or five percent on average now yes stocks were slightly up but volatility was still extremely elevated so we shouldn't expect this uh crazy movement these big ups and downs to stop anytime soon and frankly the macro conditions which are driving this market are exactly the same today and they were exactly the same yesterday as they were the week before so we shouldn't expect anything magnificent coming out from marcus over the next few days now the dollar fell very slightly against an index of its peers down by 0.2 percent the euro rose very slightly as did the pound they're now sitting in about one dollar and five cents for the euro and about 1.23 cents for the pound and then the yen was pretty much exactly where we left it uh the week before sitting at 135 yen per dollar in the rest of the world though bond yields advanced they rose by quite a decent amount the german 10-year yield it rose by nine basis points and is now assisting at 1.75 a far far cooler from where it used to be when it was practically always negative the british 10-year yield rose by 11 basis points and is now sitting at its highest point in not just two or three years but about eight years at 2.6 percent which is really quite intriguing now in the world of commodities oil prices are a fair bit lower today than they were at the worst points of last week with wti crude oil being at about 110 dollars a barrel at yesterday's close and brent crude being at about 113 frankly though this price action here is purely down to speculation regarding a few different things firstly there's this idea of an oil price cap going around in the u.s and in europe in particular that we'll discuss in a moment and then there's a lot of speculation regarding the potential for reduced oil demand in the future due to the huge amounts of recessions which are being predicted in every country and the idea that china might be slowing down as well finally then for traditional markets what happened to gold well it's sitting pretty at about eighteen hundred and forty dollars an ounce so no major moves there either now in crypto what's happening over there well it's some very slight bullishness after an absolutely awful week as you can see from this table here bitcoin and ethereum both up a little bit for the day uh by four-ish percent each bitcoin is above twenty-one thousand dollars and ethereum above eleven hundred dollars obviously a far cry from where they were sitting just a couple of weeks ago and a few months ago that's even worse but it does seem like the crypto market route 4 now has at least stopped to uh completely collapse there is still a lot of fear around everywhere around uh 3ac around binance and companies like celsius that really hasn't been resolved at all those problems are still 100 present there's also a brand new problem that's suddenly capturing everyone's hearts and putting a lot of fear out in the market and that's surrounding solana i made a video covering it yesterday but in short it's an incredibly centralized protocol uh where the other day they announced they were just going to take control of 217 million dollars of someone's assets yet they were just going to take it off them and suddenly you have no rights to your assets if they're on the solana network anymore they did in the end back out of their plan and change their mind but it doesn't really matter true colors have been shown the authority that they have has been shown and solana has basically been exposed to be a worse version of a bank because it doesn't even follow standard regulations it doesn't even have to abide by u.s law because it isn't a real bank and because the coins that you use in that network aren't even real money either so it's an absolutely terrifying prospect and that may not be damaging the crypto market right as we speak but it will do at some point in the future so be careful with that we also did get a little bit of news coming out of binance where they announced that they had bought two billion dollars worth of bitcoin to try and stabilize the price which a lot of people have been celebrating but frankly i think that's a little bit ridiculous it sort of seems reminiscent of a company like s p going out and just buying up assets to try and stabilize prices during a market crash or a route or a recession it isn't supposed to happen in healthy markets uh companies like binance should not be trying to regulate the crypto markets they should allow buying pressure and selling pressure to determine an accurate fair market value of this token but they don't really want to do that of course they're trying to stop this entire market from collapsing from a lot of companies going under so they're resorting to just deploying huge amounts of capital now there is quite a lot of drama going around specifically right now about housing markets in a couple of different countries in particular in the us in canada in the uk and the anglo-sphere in general maybe that's because they're the worst bubbles or maybe it's just because we speak english in those countries who really knows either way things aren't looking great because as interest rates rise mortgage rates have been rising too and actually at a far greater rate and this is very worrying for a number of reasons basically people spend as much money as they can on their house they push their budget as far as they can and it tends to be the greatest singular expense in almost every household in the world your mortgage or saving for a deposit and things like that and so when interest rates rise and mortgages get more expensive and those monthly payments increase well there tends not to be an awful lot of wiggle room unless wages rise with those interest rates which of course we know they haven't been as a result the chances of housing prices actually falling over the next year have massively inflated recently and to the point where we're actually reading about this on mainstream uh financial news outlets like bloomberg here as you can see u.s house prices are likely to drop as rates rise coming from capital economics now the article really isn't anything special it doesn't just say anything groundbreaking it does predict a uh a five percent decrease in the average house price by the middle of next year so in exactly one year's time which is a little bit drastic and would be worrying to a lot of people but it's not at all an unreasonable thing to expect uh mortgage rates right now are nearing in on seven percent average uh average about a year ago was three percent so monthly mortgage payments are on the verge of literally doubling over the course of a year that just isn't sustainable now capital economics this specific group which is making this prediction uh do then clarify the the year after 2023 they are then bullish on housing prices frankly i'm not so sure if i am it just really depends on the federal reserve's actions on whether or not we see inflation uh come down and how drastic this recession that we're about to enter is as well frankly this isn't something that you can actually make an accurate prediction on over the next three or four years uh with the data we have today now there's also a massive problem with this in the uk as i said we're also seeing interest rates rise and mortgage rates rise with them so we have that same sort of problem we also have a housing bubble a affordability crisis is the words that we tend to use in reality we don't build enough homes but who wants to hear about sensible solutions to real problems our government certainly doesn't they have resorted to instead get rid of mortgage affordability rules to make it easier to get mortgages that are costing more money and so when a recession comes and people start losing their jobs there's a greater chance of having another 2006 2007-esque housing market crash now you might be able to tell from my tone there but i'm not particularly excited about this idea i don't think it's a smart thing at all but there is a chance that it doesn't really have any impact because they're still keeping in other caps on how much of a mortgage you can take out so this might be some kind of a vote buying idea to try and convince first-time buyers people who don't have homes that they're trying to help you buy a home now i'm actually going to speak a little bit more about this about the housing market in general later today because it's obviously a massively nuanced topic and there's just loads to cover and there's a bunch of other markets to cover as well and the big problem with the housing market is that it is uh totally enshrined in politics as well because people who own houses tend to vote right leaning in in the long term so rightly and parties tend to incentivize people buying houses and they try to maximize home ownership especially here in the uk so you have all sorts of irresponsible and short-sighted government policy dedicated not to actually help in the public but to keeping a certain power party in power now we mentioned oil prices very briefly earlier today because they have fallen over the last week which is nice to see not by a ridiculous amount and they're still historically incredibly high so it's not exactly good news but the us and u.s allies like the uk and europe and other countries well they're trying to put into place plans to hopefully fix this oil price crisis now what do we actually know about these plans well not much at all except for the fact that they're talking about an oil price cap just literally saying here's the limit on how much you can charge for a barrel of oil and then the idea is that will then reduce prices in the future now the us and the uk and a few other countries have already been releasing uh oil in the form of strategic oil reserves uh a million barrels a day coming out of the u.s and actually i think a little bit more now about 250 million barrels of oil has been pledged over the course of this year to be released all obviously in an attempt to increase the supply and reduce prices so far it hasn't had any noticeable difference on oil prices i mean maybe prices would be sitting at 140 a pound if that have hadn't happened but we are where we are and oil prices are still too damn high now the problem with this is obviously that price caps often don't work they often just exacerbate a supplier problem in the first place it's not entirely clear if that is what will happen here uh basically because the oil market isn't a free market because of the opec cartel and because of government intervention and things yes usually you would expect a price cap to basically just to reduce the amount of firms that are willing to produce oil and sell it because it would reduce their profits and it would make some of them unprofitable altogether here though it might not work that way we might see opec in the end just decide to increase the supply of oil because they might be able to maintain uh price levels at that price cap so they're still selling them for the same price while increasing their volume thus increasing their revenue and profit that will be what yellen and other people discussing this sort of plan will be aiming for whether or not they'll reach it well who damn knows a big problem with this is that they're still trying to maximize sanctions against russia which is of course the main reason for this oil price spike in the first place um this time they seem to be focusing on insurance regarding shipping oil around the world because 95 percent of the insurance for that industry in the entire world from every country russia china india the us you name it 95 of that business comes from london so the idea here is that they would ban those businesses from operating uh with oil that comes from russia thus making it impossible to ensure oil being exported out of russia and hopefully that would then make it harder for russia to export their oil would this actually work personally i sort of doubt it i don't see why another nation another industry another business other insurance companies wouldn't just fill that gap that's left by london i think this would just destroy that industry in london and it probably wouldn't have any lasting effect or impact on russia's ability to export their oil now inflation being the big ticket issue here again uh we're hearing some more about the biden administration considering removing the tariffs that they have on chinese products now this has been discussed for a couple of months now these were trump era tariffs that were put into place to try and stop uh so much being imported from china into the u.s to try and help the us's balance of trade and to and to reshift reorient the the supply chains of the world away from china a little bit did it work um not really it seems like but nonetheless they were kept in place by biden and have been kept in place up until this point now the idea going around here is that these tariffs should be relaxed or just gotten rid of all together because they just make it a little bit more expensive to import things from china and as of right now we are still important massive things from china now would this help inflation in the short term uh yes it almost definitely would i don't really see how it wouldn't this article here which is quoting a u.s ambassador who's saying it should happen well they say that it could help reduce inflation by uh 100 basis points one percent over a few months and that it could help byron in the midterms frankly i don't care about it hope and biden in the midterms but if it reduces inflation then frankly that's not a bad thing in the short term at least the problem with this policy is that in the long term we need to do the opposite as western society and shift production outside of china to other countries which aren't quite as hostile to western ideas this would make that more difficult and it's quite unlikely that if biden does remove these tariffs that they'll be put back into place by abiding administration if he's reelected or if another democrat is back in power in 2024 as well finally then we got some news coming out of bridgewater which is the largest hedge fund in the world and run and founded by none other than ray dalio of course he's incredibly infamous and some news came out that he's opened up 10 billion dollars worth of short positions against pretty much every major european company right now now when i say every major european company i really do mean it uh we have a louis vuitton moe and hennessy we have sanofi a massive healthcare brand we have uh siemens gamasa and alliance l'oreal and another 50 different major companies mercedes there airbus absolutely massive european companies basically ray dalio is betting on a massive europe-wide recession and crisis and it's sort of hard to argue against him here now firstly he hasn't done this in a public manner or at least yet he hasn't done a bill akman and gone on cnbc and told everyone that hell is coming to europe and to sell all your stocks um he's just done this in private but of course people can track and see what bridgewater is trading and so we know what's happening behind the scenes again it's hard to argue against him here europe is in so much trouble right now they're on the verge of another debt crisis with um the pig countries seeing their sovereign debt yields rise beyond levels that they can afford to repay them the euro itself is in crisis the shared currency because it's trying to service a myriad of different countries which all have different needs right now as i said the pigs need yields to fall whereas countries like germany need inflation to fool and those two ideas don't really go hand in hand the entire continent is facing a recession uh countries like france have already started seeing negative gdp growth and then of course they have the energy crisis stemming from the russian invasion of ukraine and then europe's reaction to that there doesn't really seem to be a way out here i can't blame bridgewater or ray dalio for taking out these positions it just kind of makes perfect sense
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