저자: Max · 외국인
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한줄결론: 2022년 7월 11일 시장은 인플레이션 우려와 리스크 회피로 크게 하락했고, 달러 강세와 채권 강세가 동시에 나타났다. [시장 전반] 미국 CPI 발표(수요일)에 대한 우려로 금리 75bp 인상 가능성이 거론되었고, 실적 시즌 초입에 대한 경계가 커졌다. 나스닥 -2.2%, S&P500 -1.1%, 다우 -0.5%, 테슬라 -6%, 아마존·구글·메타 -3%, 엔비디아 -4%. [해외 증시] 영국 FTSE100 -0.2%, 유로스톡스600 -0.5%, 중국은 제로코로나 정책 지속 우려로 크게 하락했다. 중국의 양적완화식 부양은 단기 효과만 있고 장기 문제는 해결하지 못한다는 견해. [외환·채권] 달러지수 약 1% 상승, 유로 1.1% 하락해 달러와 패리티(1유로=1달러) 도달. 파운드 -1.1%(1.19), 엔 -1%(137엔). 미국 10년물 금리 2.99%로 8bp 하락, 독일 10년 -10bp, 영국 10년 -6bp. 주식에서 자금이 채권으로 이동한 결과라는 해석. [원자재] WTI 약 103달러, 브렌트 약 105달러. 경기침체(2008년 유사) 우려로 수요 감소를 선반영한 하락으로 봄. [가상자산] 비트코인 2만 달러 하회, 이더리움 약 1,000달러. 알트코인 3~10% 하락. 쓰리애로우캐피털 파산 후 창업자 잠적 언급. 개즈스탑 NFT 마켓 출시 소식, 발행자는 NFT 약세장 진입으로 평가. 코인베이스 NFT 마켓은 시기를 놓쳐 실패로 평가. [러시아·유럽 에너지] 노르트스트림1 가스 공급 중단(정기점검 명목)에 대해 재개 불확실성 제기. 노르트스트림2를 열기 위한 압박 가능성은 추측이며 확인되지 않음. 캐나다의 터빈 수출 제재 예외 허용 등 서방 결속 약화 조짐. [기업 뉴스] LVMH의 세포라 러시아 사업 분리·매각 소식으로 다른 명품 브랜드(티파니, 태그호이어, 디올 등)도 러시아 철수 가능성 제기. 나이키 러시아 철수 언급. 빌 애크먼의 40억 달러 규모 스팩 실패와 스팩 시장 쇠퇴 전망. 트위터 주가는 일론 머스크의 인수 취소로 약 15% 급락, 인수 기대가 지지선 역할을 했다고 설명. [출연자 전망] 현재 약세장이 지속되며 추가 하락 가능성을 열어두는 입장. 스팩과 NFT 시장 약세 지속을 예상.
다듬은 글
hi guys max here and this is of course your daily market update for yesterday the 11th of july and how was it well in short it was pretty damn poor as you can see from this heat map behind me now most of this was based on the idea that actually investors are very worried they were routing out of risk on assets because of two main reasons and then a couple of minor reasons as is usual the big ones for today are that actually we're expecting new inflation data new cpi data out from the us coming on wednesday and there's a big fear that it's going to be higher than expected and that we're going to get another high year-over-year figure if we do see that new high figure then we can expect the federal reserve to increase interest rates by another 75 basis points which is going to be a further shock to the debt market in the world and then we're also starting to enter earnings season we get a bunch of earnings from some very big companies coming out this week and into the weeks into the future uh this week we have i think jp morgan wells fargo a bunch of other banks as well and so a lot of investors are watching that with eager eyes trying to work out whether or not inflation is going to start to impact companies earnings yet or if they're going to miraculously come out on top big take for the day performed it really quite poorly then as you can see tesla down by six percent amazon and google and meta down by three percent nvidia down by four percent really not a strong day to be invested in the nasdaq and the nasdaq fell by 2.2 percent for the day with the s p 500 performing a little bit better and falling by about 1.1 percent and then the dow jones wasn't too bad at all only falling by half a percent for the day across the rest of the world then it was again a very similar story the rest of the americas were quite poor as was europe but nothing ridiculously bad the ftse 100 the uk index was down by 0.2 and the stock 600 from mainland europe was down by half a percent if you look over to the east though china was absolutely awful basically based on this idea that actually lockdowns are not over in china zero covert is still the policy that the communist party is pursuing they've just shut down macau we spoke about this in a fair bit of detail yesterday so go check out that video if you missed that but in short the chinese economy is looking a little bit poor and they're starting to pursue a quantitative easing based strategy to try and push the markets back up and increase their economy and get people spending again which we know likely will work in the short term but in the long term it's not going to fix a problem it's just going to make the crash that much worse now as we so often see when risk on assets fall the dollar strengthened and not by a small amount by about 1 with its spot index rising by about that mark 1 against a pool of its peers the euro fell by 1.1 meaning that right now as i speak to you one euro is worth one dollar they have finally reached parity this is really quite major news and in reality this isn't going to be some instant trigger where suddenly the european economy eclapses or anything like that it's just representative of the long-term decline of the euro and really every other currency against the dollar we also saw a fall in the value of the british pound by 1.1 percent down to 1.19 per pound and then the yen that fell about one percent as well and is now sitting at 137 yen to the dollar again this idea that the dollar strengthens into a bear market is continuing to be approved at this point in the world of fixed income assets or the bond markets we saw yields decline across the board with the u.s 10-year treasury yield falling by eight basis points so now just sitting below three percent at 2.99 percent the german 10-year yield fell by 10 basis points and the british 10-year yield fell by six basis points now this is quite natural and almost how bond markets are supposed to behave when people route out of equities they usually have to put their money somewhere and more and more over recent weeks people have actually been thinking that bonds present a decent value for once and so they're moving into fixed income assets forcing prices up and yields down finally then for commodities wti crude oil is sitting at about 103 a barrel right now and brent crude at 105 so still very high by historical standards but compared to where it's been sitting over recent weeks prices are fairly depressed again this is just on the idea that actually as we move into a recession something akin to the 2008 recession demand for oil across the world is going to drop and so speculators and investors are pricing that in in advance finally then for the market update what happened in the world of crypto well it wasn't very good and prices declined across the board bitcoin is back below twenty thousand dollars ethereum is close to a thousand dollars again and most altcoins were falling by anywhere from three four or five percent all the way up to ten percent for the day now in the world of crypto it's really just more of the same three arrows capital that crypto based hedge fund gambling fund sort of thing that went bankrupt a couple of weeks ago well it's now been pretty much entirely abandoned and the founders have disappeared and it seems like they're running from the law refusing to cooperate with authorities they aren't tweeting anything they don't have any kind of public presence anymore and the authorities just can't find them it's expected that they took some money from the fund and just up and running and they're probably in another country trying to live it large with their ill-gotten gains also in the world of crypto we saw gamestop come out and release its nft marketplace that's now efficiently live which i'm assuming is going to be quite popular here on youtube but those who like gamestop and those who like nfts are probably going to enjoy this news in reality though i don't think this is the thing that gamestop needs to survive as a company and to thrive into the future unfortunately nfts are on the way out we are certainly in an nft bear market even if a lot of people still deny the fact that we're in an equity bear market no one can deny the fact that nft prices have crashed all across the board and volume has dropped dramatically as well coinbase at that massive crypto company came out and spent about a year and hundreds of millions of dollars putting together its nft marketplace and it seemed to have been an absolute waste of time because it came out too late and so they weren't able to profit off of the bull run while it was there now we have a fair bit of news coming out from russia and everything regarding that today so we'll start off there with this article here suggesting the gas supplies to europe and to germany in particular of course coming from russia are going to be closed now the idea here is that this is for scheduled maintenance and there shouldn't be anything sinister at play but of course we know that geopolitics is far more nuanced than that and there's a lot of fear going around right now that russia is never going to reopen this pipeline or at least they're going to maintain its closure for a sustained period of time to try and put pressure onto germany and the rest of europe now there are a few potential things going on here the first is of course surrounding nordstrom 2 which is the second undersea pipeline from russia into germany that's supposed to transport this natural gas and it's been in the works for years now it is an incredibly controversial thing and since russia invaded ukraine it's basically been put on hold and everyone's just kind of come to agree that it's never going to come to fruition and it's never going to finally be usable what might be going on here then is russia might claim that nordstrom 1 the current present pipeline that is still being used is incapable of being repaired to a sufficient standard and so what russia might do is they might try and use that as leverage to get nordstrom 2 turned on to get germany and the rest of europe to agree to that so that russia in the future is able to provide more volume to europe so they can sell more gas and make more money now this is just a theory it isn't confirmed at all we really don't know what's going on in russia but there's a strong chance that there's another natural gas shortage in europe and germany in particular over the coming weeks we've also seen a little bit of a drop in the resolve of certain western leaders as a result of this whole chaos germany of course has always been very opposed to opposing russia because they are so reliant on russian gas but those countries which are a little bit more detached like the uk and canada and the us for instance are a little bit more willing to bite that bullet canada in particular was the place of manufacturing for a new turbine i believe for nordstrom one which is needed for this maintenance but the sanctions put into place by the west against russia meant that canada wasn't allowed to export this turbine because it would be used to help russia export gas and this was terrifying for germany it meant that their gas suppliers were going to be pushed off and so of course the german government spent an awful lot of time lobbying and they got in contact with canada and they eventually managed to get canada to just ignore the sanctions and send it over anyway so we're already starting to see actually resolve against russia against supporting russia and funding their government is starting to wane and that might continue into the future now the second big news regarding russia is actually sort of on the opposite end of the spectrum indicating that maybe the west has stronger resolve against russia than i may have just indicated this is regarding louis vuitton moe hennessey's which is a group of luxury brands and one of the brands that they run called sephora which i'm told by the females i know is a very big name in the makeup beauty space and this company is leaving its russian market permanently it's selling that branch of its business over to the person who runs the russian branch and it's going to become its own independent company basically this part of lvmh is going to be separating off and just accepting that it's never going to make money from russia again now the potential here is that the rest of louis vuitton murray hennessey's brands do the same thing of course there are those brands that are literally in the name those three there's also massive companies like tiffany and tag hoya and christian dior and they also have yacht-makers and all sorts of other things there and this could be an indication that actually some luxury brands are going to make this tough decision to just write off the russian market altogether and accept that they're never going to be able to operate in that market again this is just one of the impacts that russian sanctions are going to have on the markets and on your investments if you own a lvmh then this is something you need to know about it's something you need to decide whether or not the risk of this happening for the rest of their brands is worth owning the stock we saw a similar thing happen with nike last month where they abandoned the russian market altogether and i wouldn't be surprised if we see more companies go in this direction for the simple reason that the war is continuing on and i think it's going to continue continuing on companies are having to pay rent for stores that they can't operate they're having to pay salaries to people who aren't allowed to work for them every day that this war continues it's costing these companies money to maintain a presence in russia and so we're going to see a lot of companies in my opinion start to cut off the umbilical cord and just abandon this market altogether next in the world of corporate news we have a bill akhman and his failure to get a record spack off the ground now this was a four billion dollar spec which made it the largest one ever but unfortunately it wasn't able to find a target for acquisition so it's just failed and they're having to return all of their investments to their investors now this isn't actually too surprising because spacks have been on the decline for over a year now if you look at someone like chamath palahabitiya well he was an incredibly popular investor back when his stocks and his spax sorry were going live but nowadays they've all absolutely tanked in price and people seem to blame the people who run these spacks and the organizational structure of spax themselves for these failures this does seem to be the end of the bull run for spax they are losing popularity and as even fewer companies are going public these days just because we're in a bear market now and valuations are lower it's going to be even harder to find investors for spax and for companies to merge with in the first place to be honest i think this is actually a good thing i don't like the idea of spax at all they basically only exist to make it easier to go public to get around ipo rules but those rules exist for a reason to ensure that proper disclosures are made to investors to stop retail investors from jumping into a company that they know nothing about and losing all their money which is what has happened to spax so frankly i'm actually quite glad to see this spec fail and hopefully we see this continue into the future as well finally the last bit of corporate news for today is regarding twitter whose share price is actually tanked 15 this was just seven percent pre-market from this article from a few days ago obviously on the news that elon has officially cancelled his purchase of twitter risk arbitrage trading is a very risky thing at some times and i know that tons of people here on youtube and on twitter and other social media spaces as well will have lost a lot of money from this whole kerfuffle twitter's share price is absolutely getting hammered and of course it has the only reason it hasn't been getting hammered over the last three or four months is because it's been propped up by elon's promise to buy shares at 54 a piece now that the likelihood that elon buys this company at all is actually going down by the day well the share price of twitter no longer has that support level and so it's going to behave just like every other tech company it's going to get hammered and it's actually going to perform far worse than most tech companies because it isn't even growing like some others like the absolute dumpster fire of peloton can at least claim
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