저자: JeremyGrantham·RayDalio—제목·설명란기준두출연자공동출연 · 외국인
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결론: 두 사람 모두 거시 구조 변화(부채·통화 팽창, 정치적 이념화된 자원 배분, 강대국 경쟁)를 강조하며, 그랜덤은 현재 시장을 거대한 투자 버블의 말기로 보고 하락 폭이 클 것이라고 주장한다. 거시 프레임(달리오): 역사 연구(최근 500년 기축통화·제국 흥망)에 기반해 핵심 변수를 ①부채·통화 팽창 ②내부 정치·사회 갈등 ③강대국 부상(중국의 미국 도전) ④자연재해·전염병 ⑤인간의 적응·혁신 다섯 가지로 제시. 단기 전망(달리오): 부채와 신용의 수급 불균형으로 스태그플레이션 성격의 환경으로 이동할 가능성이 있으며, 경제 논리보다 이념적 자원 배분이 중요해졌다고 진단. 주식시장 인식(그랜덤): 본인은 주식시장을 취미로 보며 자원·기후변화 관련 투자와 버블 연구에 집중한다고 밝힘. 현재를 40~50년 경력 중 세 번째 거대 버블로 규정. 시장 지표 언급: 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 27.5% 하락, 러셀2000 약 23%, S&P500 약 15.5% 하락으로 언급. 비트코인은 약 32,000달러 수준으로 하락했다고 언급. ARK(캐시 우드) 펀드는 2018년 수준으로 되돌아갔고 고점 대비 75% 하락, AMC도 75% 하락으로 언급. 버블 판단 기준(그랜덤): 과거 4대 버블(1929, 2000 등)에서 보였던 '우량주 상승·위험주 하락'의 극단적 괴리를 지표로 제시. 작년 S&P 상승과 러셀2000 하락 사이 20~25포인트 괴리가 발생했고, 이는 임박한 붕괴의 희귀한 신호라고 봄. 'Dancing while the music plays'(음악이 계속될 때 춤을 춘다) 비유로 투자자들이 위험 자산을 떠나지 못하는 행태를 설명. 리스크·조건: 하락 폭은 매우 클 것이라는 전망(그랜덤), 정치·이념 갈등이 경제 전반에 큰 영향을 준다는 우려(달리오). 기후 변화 효과도 중요 변수로 언급. 출연자 전망: 그랜덤은 현 버블이 '진짜(real McCoy)' 버블이며 하락이 상당할 것이라고 명시. 달리오는 스태그플레이션 가능성과 정치적 리스크를 강조하나 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi guys max here and i thought i'd just give you a very quick video today looking at what ray dalio and jeremy grantham have come out with and said they recently came on and did a podcast together it was really interesting there are two parts to it and i'll link the uh the first part which is out already in the description down below in case you want to watch it all but it's about an hour long so i just selected some of the best bits or what i found really interesting and i'm going to show you what they had to say one of the things i learned really 1971 and then repeatedly is that surprises that happen in my life time happened to me many of many cases were for things that didn't happen in my lifetime but happened in prior lifetimes such as in 1971 i was clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange august 15th um nixon severs the relationship between gold and the dollar so essentially defaulting um and i walked on the stock exchange i said financial crisis and um i would expect it to be down a lot it was up a lot i studied history and found that the exact same thing happened in march um 5th 1933 with roosevelt doing the same thing basically on the radio and then i understood things better so what happened to me over the last number of years is there are three big things that are happening in my lifetime that didn't happen and i actually found that with research five so the first is um the amount of um decoration and monetization of that and how it's carrying through the system the second is the amount of uh internal um political social economic uh conflict that is now going on and um and and the third is uh the rising of a great power um to challenge uh the existing world order and the existing well-powered china and the geopolitical um in which uh you know when uh i was born 1949 and uh five four years after the new world water began in 45 and the united states of course was a much more dominant country than had 80 percent of the world's gold 50 of the world's economy the only the monopoly on military power because of nuclear and all of that and it's relative it's declined on a relative basis and that led me to do research um which i um needed to do the five last 500 years of research to follow i wanted to study the rise and decline of currencies reserve currencies and their empires that i went back and in doing that um i also discovered um that their uh acts of nature um actually had bigger effects than the first three of those or even with the wars um because of droughts floods and pandemics um and i know that you're uh you really have thoughts about climate change and its effects so i'll be interested in hearing those because i think that's a factor and then number five was the greatest of course is man's capacity to adapt and invent uh because and one way or another they um if you look at that per capita income rises living standards rise over periods of time but these big cycles and these big events are dominant so those are i think almost everything can fall into those five categories you know um and uh so that's how i look at it and just to quickly get into a few how do you see those categories playing out right now is there anything specific that comes to mind i think that um we're in a period in which there's a supply and demand for debt and credit um that is because one man stands for another man's uh assets and uh there's a supply demand for credit um that is um having an effect on um making us move into a stagflation kind of environment uh in other words the trade-offs between the two will become more difficult but i think that um number two influence the political um is the most important um what i mean by that is um i think we we have been used to being in an environment um in which um economics uh ruled you know you'd have a global economy and um those who could produce items more efficiently or cheaper would get the business and they would raise their living standards and other places you know this so it's a it was a global competition largely by run by economic considerations and resources would shift that way i think we're now in um that doesn't exist as much that way and there's been a transition to um an ideological allocation of of resources and so on such as you know the acquisition by elon musk of twitter it's not a financial transaction as much as it is uh for the purpose of it'll have controls and when we have the conflicts such as with disney and desantis in florida and those political ideologies um it's the belief that um economics has got to fall within that agenda that'll have very big implications i think i have a little trouble convincing myself that the stock market is that important and that we live in an age where some much more important issues are playing out and i know ray shares that view to some considerable degree but i i view the stock market now um really as a hobby and the one thing that i have kept going is resources and climate change related investing and also for old times sake investment bubbles since i've been doing that for 40 or 50 years and um and since i find myself unexpectedly in in the third great investment bubble of of my career uh in in uh basically in the us so um i can't avoid it and this is a wonderful day to be having this discussion it's not only victory over hitler and russia day but it's it's also a day where the market is showing signs of breaking down uh through yesterday it's the worst opening of a year for the s p since i was one year old in 1939 i am a pre-war baby unlike ray and and of course the nasdaq is down as we speak 27 and a half percent from its high and uh and the russell 2000 about 23 s p about 15 and a half so it's getting to be interesting and as we were saying before um bitcoin from some point in the last 24 hours is down 10 to 32 000 and change so that is getting interesting and arc um kathy woods wonderful instrument is back to it where it was in 2018 i'm not kidding you uh it is back below this entire event now uh which is quite remarkable down 75 percent uh from from its peak as is amc down 75 from its peak and and the other um meme stops are in ragged disarray so this is the real mccoy seems to be playing out pretty close to 2000.
and i'm just wondering how you're assessing all this in the context of your research on asset bubbles always considered myself a fairly serious amateur historian what i've done in bubble territory is i i don't try and build models to explain every day as you guys do i i focus on the four great bubbles which are characterized by nearly hysterical behavior really seriously weird over optimism which is very rare and which are characterized by accelerated price moves on the upside and and and by a weird uh deviation on the upside between the blue chips going up and the risky stocks going down and that that is rare as hence teeth it happened brilliantly in 29 it happened during the year 2000 again in spades with the s p x growth continuing to go up through september of 2000 and the growth starts basically going down 50 and the internet starts dropping maybe 60 70 percent by that so that was spectacular and we saw a very handsome deviation between the s p rising last year and the russell 2 for example dropping quite handsomely so there was a 20-25 point spread on the upside and that for me it's a pretty good indicator and i tell you what it describes it describes mr prince's i've got to keep dancing because the music's still playing and we understand that completely the enormous commercial imperative of the industry to play up to and over the edge but they're not complete idiots and so they say well i've got to keep dancing but i don't have to keep dancing with puma tech the most advanced stock in 99.
i'm going to transfer to coca-cola and i'll keep dancing it off the edge but i'll go off with coca-cola and it works the coca-cola's maybe handsomely overpriced but in 1929 and 2000 2001 and so on they always go down a lot less as the bubble breaks and that's the phenomenon that causes this very rare indicator of impending doom which we saw last year and so by early this year it seemed clear to me that this was not only the real mccoy bubble which had been clear for a year or so in terms of pricing and enthusiasm but it had triggered this very rare uh indicator of impending doom in other words now and so uh our piece of a year and a bit ago was called waiting for the last dance and our equivalent follow-up this january was let the wild rumpus begin i.e we're in it dudes and i do believe we are and i i believe the declines will be very substantial they of the markets foo a site that allow think that our
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