Ray Dalio: The Bubble Has Already Popped! You Just Don't Know It Yet...

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2022년 5월 시점 영상. 결론: 레이 달리오의 버블 지표로 보면 주식 버블은 이미 꺼지기 시작했으나 아직 바닥은 아니며 추가 하락 가능성이 크다. 달리오의 버블 판단 기준: 전통적 가치 대비 고가(현금흐름 할인 vs 금리), 지속 불가능한 조건(과거 성장률 외삽), 강한 강세 심리, 부채 기반 매수, 투기적 선매입. 2022년 1월 기준 미국 주식시장은 최고 버블 대비 약 70% 수준, 테슬라·로쿠 등 신흥 기술주는 극단적 버블로 평가됨. 버블주는 1년간 약 1/3 하락했으나 극단적 저점 수준은 아님. 과거(1929, 2000년대 닷컴)에는 버블 지표가 각각 약 5, 약 15%까지 하락한 사례가 있음. 현재 지표는 약 40 수준으로, 진행자는 절반 정도 진행됐다고 보고 향후 약 6개월 추가 하락을 예상. 기술주 밸류에이션(고 PER, 고 PS, SaaS 마진 과대평가)과 신규 개인 투자자 유입 감소, 강세 심리 붕괴, 레버리지 청산 잔존 등을 근거로 제시. 현재 강한 기업(페이스북·구글·애플 등)도 금리 인상·긴축 환경에서 수개월간 하락 가능, 반등 조건은 연준의 정책 전환뿐이라고 주장. 달리오 개인에 대한 비판은 있으나 그의 조언은 경청할 가치가 있다는 입장. 영상 말미 스폰서(Composer, BlockFi) 홍보 포함.

다듬은 글

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01. the stock market bubble that i spent the best part of 2021 telling you all about has already started to collapse but you probably knew that you've probably noticed that the s p 500 is falling you've probably noticed that netflix has seen its value drop by 70 the facebook has had its share price cut down by over 40 and that almost every single industry has been hammered throughout 2022.

02. what you might not have noticed though was that this was all very predictable and not just by me but by many other far more accomplished successful and wealthy investors one of those people who warned us about the state of the markets who warned us about lofty valuations and the likelihood that we see those valuations greater was of course ray dalio the really interesting thing though is that despite the fact that he pushed out his views that he tried to warn us all about what was happening the vast majority of people heard him but they just ignored him to be clear they didn't disagree with what he had to say they didn't claim that the statistics or facts that he used were false they just refused to pay attention they buried their heads in the sand and when the market started to tank they lost an awful lot of money well dalio is back today telling us all about his views on the market once again and this time i'm determined to ensure that everyone is at least given a chance a chance to reevaluate their investments to consider their risk tolerances and decide based on intrinsic realities and not emotion where they should invest their money today i'm going to take you through everything dalio has to say so that you can't claim ever in the future that you were never warned now firstly dalio goes through and explains exactly the criteria that he uses to determine whether or not there actually is a bubble high prices relative to traditional measures of value for example by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates number two unsustainable conditions for example extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that the growth can't be sustained many new and naive buyers were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot so it's perceived as a hot market broad bullish sentiment a high percentage of purchases being financed by debt and a lot of forward and speculative purchases made to bet on price gains for example inventories that are more than needed or contracted forward purchases dalio then goes on to explain what the situation was back in january before he compares that to today in january the bubble indicator showed that a the u.s equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme bubble for it was 70 percent of the way towards the highest bubble which happened in the late 90s and the late 1920s and b the emerging tech companies like tesla and roku were clearly in an extreme bubble i also noted that other bubbly behavior like spax the ipo boom and the big pickup in auctions activity financed by the unprecedented flood of liquidity postcovid had found its way into the asset markets making things bubbly i showed which stocks were in bubbles and i created an index of those stocks which i called bubble stocks now investing in stocks should never be emotional 66 of investors report regretting making an emotionally charged investment decision and with stocks crashing almost every day i'm certain that number is only going to get worse that's why over 1 trillion dollars is managed by institutions who use rules-based or quantitative investment strategies to remove human biases but in order to build your own quantitative strategy you need to know how to code be a master at excel and pay for expensive trading software until now composer is an automated trading platform that allows investors to seamlessly build a portfolio of rule-based strategies called symphonies no code or spreadsheets required take a look at this symphony that i personally built called the stoic finance inflation spiral hedge that has so far beaten the s p 500 by over 25 across 2022 by focusing on soaring bond yields commodity price inflation and consumer staples as opposed to just buying tech stocks that keep falling in value i'm really pleased to see this symphony continue to outperform as the rest of the market is crashing the best part about all of this is that it's completely free to use you can gain access to this game changing super app free of charge and for a limited time only my subscribers can earn 100 for free when you invest in a symphony by using my exclusiv disclaimer and special terms in the description too so if the idea of creating your own mini hedge fund strategy sounds appealing or if you want to invest just like i do then make sure to click the link down below in the description and claim your free one hundred dollars so dalio was pretty sure that there was a bubble in the overhyped tech stocks and today in mid-2022 it's safe to say he was right roku is down 82 percent from its all-time highs shopify is down 75 percent from its all-time highs and docusign is down 74 from its all-time highs kathy woods rk fund which came to perfectly encapsulate the hype stock bubble and is even basically used as an etf of just over-hyped junk is now down by 64 the reality is that this is seen with almost every single tech stock that rose such a ridiculous amount over the prior two years that was valued on future revenues that were never going to be seen and theoretical margins that were purely figments of venture capitalist imaginations and dalio recognized this as well since then those bubble stocks popped they declined by about a third over the last year while the s p 500 is about flat with those and other developments in the market like the meaningful decline in frothy retail activity the meaningful deterioration in sentiment and more the emerging tech stocks no longer appear to be in a bubble but neither do they appear to have substantially swung to the opposite extreme so it's not necessarily true that now is a good time to buy them so that was actually quite clear yes those stocks were in a bubble yes that bubble has popped but no they are not going to stop declining in value dalio also goes some way in saying something that i bring up quite a lot that bubbles don't really pop they deflate bubbles can take a long time to unwind two years in the case of the 1929 bubble one year in the case of the late 90s tech bubble and typically go in the opposite extreme so just because they aren't at a bubble extreme doesn't mean they are safe or that it's a good time to get long in fact u.s stocks in aggregate still look overvalued by our measures history shows that once the popping begins bubbles more often over correct to the downside versus settling at more normal prices dalio then gives us a few charts that show us how we're not actually that far into the end of this bubble and that there is probably more pain to come back in the 1920s the bubble that caused the great recession went from almost 100 on dalio's measure all the way down to 5 at its lowest point representing those frothiest of all stocks falling in value until they are worth just one twentieth of what they used to be during the dot-com bubble as well we saw a very similar thing the bubble gauge that dalio created shows stocks falling from ny on 100 down all the way to around 15 percent at its lowest meaning that stocks were worth just one seventh of what they once were today where do we sit four months into 2022 well sadly we are nowhere near those sorts of levels while dalio's gauge never got quite as high as it did in the past it is also nowhere near as low as it's gone in the past either right now we're sitting at around 40 and that means at the very least we are probably only halfway done meaning another six months of consistent declines in the market week by week and month by month and the frothiest of all stocks out there the bubbliest of them all that were valued on nothing but thin air and hope or they are still likely to be cut in half again now what you should really be asking right now is what on earth is this bubble gauge that dalio keeps referring to and just how does it work well luckily enough dalio goes on to explain just that he gives us this table here with his six points and states whether or not he thinks each of those is in a bubble not in a bubble frothy or deflating very clearly the 1920s bubble that caused the great depression was a bubble across the board the dot-com bubble was a bubble as well and back before we saw this sustained market route as 2022 we were in a bubble too though according to dalio it wasn't as bad as it had been in the past as of today compared to traditional pricing measures stocks are still relatively high but they've taken a major hit the simple fact is that if we go back to 2021 where tech prices were ridiculously high seeing a company with a p e ratio above 100 wasn't rare or anything special only when we saw crazy high ps of tesla sitting above 300 did people start to recognize that maybe there was a bubble in the pricing of tech stocks but even then there was and there still are vehement defenders of tesla share price who claim that it's actually undervalued the next point on dalio's checklist is are prices discounting on sustainable conditions and the simple fact is yes they were back at the peak of tech prices in 2021 and actually they still are today the best example of this in my opinion is saas or software as a service companies who have seen ridiculous valuations recently because investors love recurring reliable income the problem is that these companies also tend to have very strong margins often above 30 percent because they sell software that has a marginal cost of almost zero the problem with this way of thinking and valuing things though is that any industry where margins are 30 is going to have huge competition with everyone and their mum trying to get in on that cash as a result over the long run once these markets have become fully saturated the price that these services will be able to charge will fall and margins will fall as well a brilliant example of this is the 100 different online contracts companies like signable or docusign who all provide an identical product once every company has signed up with one of these companies growth will slow and stagnate and prices will be forced down by the huge amounts of competition because there is simply no difference between the various online contract companies next we have how many new buyers are entering the market now this is another area where the bubble gage was screaming at us as robin hood coinbase and cheap capital has led millions of people who normally had absolutely no interest in investing at all right into the markets and into the riskiest parts of the markets too in this sense we have seen a collapse of new entrance to the market recently as you might expect with prices falling week by week and month by month but in reality there is still a lot of downwards action to be seen and dalio doesn't think we've hit the bottom here either for number four we have how broad is bullish sentiment and here the contrast between what we used to see and what we see today is huge as there has been a total capitulation in bullish sentiment if you think about how bullish people were back in early 2021 when tech stocks were booming and stock-picking monkeys could become millionaires compared to today with permabulls like meet kevin panic selling the change is monumental number five and one of the most important and dangerous metrics here is our purchases being financed by high leverage and while it did get really quite bad the amount of margin trading we saw back in 2021 this gauge has started to drop off as we still sit though and especially in the very volatile markets of crypto nfts and tech stocks there is still far too much margin in the markets the reason this is so dangerous is that too much leverage in the markets leads to positive feedback loops where declines in asset prices lead to liquidations which then in turn cause asset prices to fall further and then more liquidations come in this measure there is still an awful lot of leverage that has yet to be closed out that i expect to see disappear before the markets actually hit their bottom and we see a bull market emerge finally we have to what extent have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases now what this basically means is people investors or businesses are being too optimistic about the future and for this measure actually things aren't too bad and they haven't been too bad for years really this reflects whether or not businesses are expecting the strong demand that exists today to continue long into the future and while this measure could be higher it could also be far lower and before the market bottoms we should be expecting this to reduce further too now it is clear that dalio thinks we used to be in a bubble and that the bubble has already started to deflate and i wholeheartedly agree i imagine then that there are some people watching this who are about to go and throw their life savings into the market because some of those measures were actually quite reasonable so asset valuations must be reasonable then too but to those people who might be thinking or feeling that way i will caution you to listen to something that dalio said earlier that when these bubbles deflate asset prices don't simply return to normal levels they over correct until they are grossly undervalued and then they begin to slow march back up to reasonable levels there are many stocks out there that when you look at them alone they seem like brilliant deals facebook is very appropriately priced right now google and apple are basically legal money printers at this point and were this a normal market cycle i would probably be buying into those companies right now but this is not a normal market this is a tightening market where interest rates are rising where the fed will be selling bonds in a month's time and risk sentiment is deteriorating every single day there is nothing to suggest that the bleeding has stopped there is nothing to suggest that even these great companies at these great prices won't see consistent declines for many more months into the future personally i don't even think we're halfway done and the only thing that can really turn everything around right now is the federal reserve and jerome powell truly throwing caution to the wind ignoring inflation and turning the money printers back on to save his precious asset prices until that happens though a bear market is far more likely than a bull market now before we sign off i want to make one thing very clear i do not like ray dalio i do not think he's a good person i think he is corrupted by money and his willingness to ignore the ouija genocide purely because it makes him more money is utterly shameful but that doesn't mean i'm going to ignore everything he has to say the simple fact is that he is one of the most successful investors and businessman the world has ever seen and anyone who refused to listen to him simply because he's a bad person is dooming themselves to failure we don't have to agree with him we don't have to like what he has to say or even heed his advice when it's given but at the bare minimum we should always listen because there is a chance that we learn something truly groundbreaking i'd also like to give one final thank you to this video sponsor composer if you want to invest like i do and beat the market by over 20 while stocks continue to fall then check out the links down below the markets have never been harder to navigate and having a clear concise strategy like mine that involves no emotion can be hugely important and help the channel out where we discuss everything about the markets and you get exclusive private access into my portfolio with which crashes if the markets as bad as they are finally there's also a link in the description to blockfi it's literally free money and you can earn interest on your crypto there too thank you