저자: Max · 외국인
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2022년 4월 말 미국 증시는 개별 종목 중심으로 움직였고 나스닥은 4월 최악의 달 가능성이 제기됨. 거시 환경: 연준의 금리 인상 우려가 지배적이며 시장은 다음 달 0.5%p 인상을 반영. 중국 봉쇄와 공급망 충격, 우크라이나 전쟁·対러 제재, 유럽 에너지 위기 등 공포 요인이 지속됨. 외환·채권·원자재: 달러는 전 통화 대비 강세(유로 약 1.05달러 근접, 파운드 1.25). 미국 10년물 금리는 하루 10bp 급등해 2.82%로 4년래 고점 근접. WTI 약 102달러, 브렌트 약 105달러로 고유가 유지. 암호화폐: 비트코인 4만달러 바로 아래, 이더리움 3천달러 아래에서 횡보하며 위험자산 선호 약세와 동조. 기업 실적: 마이크로소프트 강한 실적으로 약 5% 상승, 엔비디아·TSMC 2~3% 하락. 메타(페이스북)는 매출 미스(약 280억달러 vs 300억 예상)에도 EPS 비용 절감·메타버스 투자 축소로 시간외 약 18% 급등. 텔레닥은 매출 가이던스 하향(24억달러)과 66억달러 영업권 손상으로 시간외 약 37% 급락. 캐시 우드(ARK): 텔레닥 이 보유량 증가 직후 급락해 큰 손실 발생, 하루 4억달러 자금 유출. 아처가스 사건: 빌 황 체포·1억달러 보석. 화자는 과도한 레버리지에 따른 붕괴로 보며 시장조작 혐의에는 의문 제기. 마지막에 인플레이션 방어 플랫폼 및 스테이블코인 고금리 상품 홍보.
다듬은 글
hi guys max here and yesterday was another pretty turbulent day for the marcus it started out actually quite strong for the most part but it ended up a little bit weak with most of the gains that were made being lost in the end stocks were cautiously green for the day but only just we also had a couple important earnings reports come out so there was plenty to talk about and let's just get right into it now as you can see pretty much here or there no consolidated movement at all just normal markets at work for once individual companies behaving as individual companies which is really nice to see microsoft did really well after their strong earnings report yesterday rising almost five percent nvidia and taiwan semiconductors fell two and three percent each google and facebook did pretty poorly as well but everything else did okay for the most part energy and materials were quite strong as well now by the day's end the s p 500 moved up by about 0.2 so really nothing special at all and the nasdaq fell by 0.1 so again nothing really major at one point during the day though both of the indexes were up by about one and a half percent so they just couldn't hold it but they did have those gains for a moment we are now still on track for april to be the worst month for the nasdaq since 2008 and the worst month of the great recession still though there is just too much fear about the fed hiking rates again markets are now pretty much convinced that a half a percent raise is coming next month i'm not sure how businesses or the economy will fare when it comes and neither are investors so they're worried there are of course other the usual fears too china's coverage struggle and the subsequent supply chain shocks that we're going to see as a result of that the fears surrounding the war in ukraine maybe spilling out into other countries are not going away and sanctions are continuing to be levied against russia and the energy crisis in europe is deepening too so there is just plenty to worry about and investors know that too now the us dollar is still continuing to strengthen against everything pretty much across the board consistently day by day the euro has now fallen to one dollar and five cents it's getting really really close to parity now the pound has fallen to 1.25 a far cry from where it used to be sitting right around at about 1.40 cents back in 2021.
now i don't really know how much stronger the dollar can get but it's showing no signs of slowing down yet bonds got very volatile again reversing the recent movement they had over the first part of this week us 10-year yields had fallen for a few days in a row but yesterday they jumped back up by 10 basis points in a very volatile move that isn't really ideal and the yield is now sitting at two point eight two percent getting very close to another four year high for us bond yields oil prices are just staying pretty high too wti crude oil didn't really move from yesterday and it's sitting pretty much exactly where it was at 102 a barrel with brent crude sitting a little bit higher at 105.
this seems to be just the natural level for oil right now without any bullish or bearish news and headlines going around without any developments with russia or opec or anything this is where we are settling just like in late 2021 when we settled at around 70 or so finally how did crypto and that entire industry do for the day well nothing really special markets are still slightly depressed from their recent levels bitcoin is just below forty thousand dollars ethereum is just below three thousand dollars both of them rose about one percent for the day old coins though did a fair bit worse for the most part and most didn't really rise at all some fell i'd say on average they rose about half a percent for the day just in general we saw similar sentiment to nasdaq tech stocks really risk on assets are just a little bit too risky right now so no one is piling on headfirst now we of course had some really important earnings from some big companies come out yesterday so what were they well the biggest one the most important one was facebook or meta but i hate the word meta so i'm gonna use facebook now they came out with earnings that were actually pretty decent nothing spectacular but markets seem to absolutely love them the big good thing for facebook was that it grew its average daily users last quarter to 1.96 billion above the 1.94 billion estimates revenue for the quarter was actually quite a big miss which is why i say it wasn't a brilliant earnings session analysts expected around 30 billion dollars for the quarter just above that actually and it came through under 28 billion dollars which really isn't great but the earnings for facebook was actually a beat because facebook is cutting down on costs the estimate for their earnings was two dollars and 56 cents per share but it came through at 2.72 cents a share we also had a statement come out from master zuck himself and he said that they are slowing down their investment on metaverse stuff which was about a 10 billion a quarter expense which investors thought was far too aggressive they didn't like it so they do like this cutback and that's one of the reasons the stock surged expenses for facebook for the year are now expected to drop from around 95 billion dollars to about 90 billion dollars so that is a significant saving and bullish nonetheless basically facebook is still growing albeit quite slowly for one of these mega tech companies it is becoming a little bit leaner as well though hopefully their margin should increase with this news and facebook has actually been priced quite appropriately recently with a pe under 15 so the stock rose quite a lot on this report about 18 after hours so far from the 170 mark to about the 205 dollar mark now facebook are still claiming a little bit of struggles regarding business in russia as a result of the ukraine war and also a covert overhang effect that some other companies like netflix have blamed as well and of course they have the limits put on the data that they can collect due to apple's change but it's coping okay with those problems for the most part funnily enough now bloomberg put out a leaked report saying that facebook would miss its revenue targets which it did the report was right but it came out while markets were open and it pushed facebook stock down about three percent for the day only for the actual report which had all the information to be far far better facebook is once again nearing in on being a half a trillion dollar company once again now the other big company that came out or the most interesting one in my opinion was teledoc which posted its results and it did really quite badly they've had to cut their future sales forecast to 2.4 billion dollars down from what used to be 2.65 billion which might not sound like a huge impact but actually that's an almost 10 percent decrease so not small at all the company is of course still loss making too there has been some weird accounting stuff going on called goodwill that got cut down which basically meant that the company lost 6.7 billion dollars last quarter wouldn't expect it to lose something like 200 million in reality here this is due to a 6.6 billion dollar impairment charge for his goodwill this doesn't mean that they burnt that much cash but they've had to write off that much in paper assets as a loss it's not quite as bad as it sounds but it is still pretty bad the company is also not seeing margins increasing their growth is slowing they are still unprofitable their moat is proving to be not as strong as they thought it was their advertising is not as effective as it used to be and so things are looking bad and the share price tanked a colossal 37 in after hours trading which is obviously a hugely bad result the company was already down 80 since last year and i saw a funny anecdote regarding this the idea is that someone asks what's a company that falls 90 well it's a company that falls 80 then gets cut in half and that's basically what we've just seen happen with teledoc now kathy wood is getting a lot of stick regarding this because teledoc is her second largest holding and it's been getting closer and closer to overtaking tesla as her largest holding and before earnings yesterday she bought up 616 000 shares over the last two weeks only for those holdings to pretty much instantly decline by almost 40 percent arc invest is just getting absolutely hammered right now and it's losing investors all over the place consistently day by day with a major outflow on wednesday where 400 million dollars left her fund in that day alone now that might not sound like too much but that is about 1.6 of her funds leaving her on a single day that is absolutely awful now we have a little bit of news about bill huang who has been arrested and given a 100 million dollar bail for his role in the collapse and the fraud of archaegas which was that massive hedge fund that collapsed back in 2021 i'm not really sure how this will turn out but basically the fund was just way too over levered and it crashed because of it i don't really understand how what he did was illegal or worthy of being arrested maybe there's something regarding this that will come out in time maybe there's more information that isn't in the public eye yet but basically he borrowed money based on his assets from banks willing to lend him that money because they were stupid and they didn't do their due diligence or they were just greedy he didn't force any bank to work with him at gunpoint now i agree that he was greedy and stupid too but the banks are being treated as victims here when they aren't and i personally don't see any criminality again maybe there's more to the case than the situation that we don't know of yet there must be really because as of yet their argument is that he was manipulating the market but he was just a big fund and he was buying up stocks so of course the price of those stocks was going to rise as he bought into them if that counts as market manipulation then every fund and every investor in the history of the world is guilty of that too it's it's called slippage it's a very basic concept i don't really know in my mind it doesn't sound like anything but justice systems are weird so we'll see won't we now if you enjoyed this video then make sure to like comment and subscribe to bless the youtube algorithm if you want more content like this then check out our patreon and join our community of investors you get access to our discord loads of exclusive content like insight into my portfolio and buy and sell alerts for all my own investments there's a link in the description to masterworks.io a site that can help you protect your portfolio against inflation through fractional shares of art from world famous artists like banksy art has historically proven to be uncorrelated to the markets so it's a really valuable resource with the markets on the brink it's completely free to sign up so make sure to check it out there's also a link in the description to blockfly which will give you up to 250 in free bitcoin when you use it you can also get over seven percent interest on stable coins to protect your hard-earned cash from being eaten away by inflation thank you all for watching stay stoic until next time you
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